Number 20, please!

(Still the odd easterly on the ensembles, still nowhere as good overall as a couple of days ago, still next to no chance of happening.)

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Morning all, the odd straggler run bringing an easterly, otherwise milder and hopefully drying out a bit.

Number 20, please!

(Still the odd easterly on the ensembles, still nowhere as good overall as a couple of days ago, still next to no chance of happening.)

Yes I spotted that in the pack and thought of you! 

Number 20, please!

(Still the odd easterly on the ensembles, still nowhere as good overall as a couple of days ago, still next to no chance of happening.)

 

isnt that roughly when Feb 91 started with the cold?

Morning all, the odd straggler run bringing an easterly, otherwise milder and hopefully drying out a bit.

Like you say the odd straggler/carrot to keep us interested.

However if roles were reveresed and it was a predominantly cold outlook, I think the odd mild straggler would give me concern.

Still enough to keep me interested at the moment.

Still a long time away yet, but this one would be trouble for those right down the east coast in flood prone areas.
Very high spring tides, strong NNE winds with low pressure close by, the worst combination.

ECM at 240
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif 

GFS has a similar set up, but at 192
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=1&carte=1

a brief burst of cold air from the east to start the final month of winter

 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=2

Darren might see a few snow grains

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oooh, so close on this run...

 

you can smell the cold air in France....

 

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problem is how to build it further north. Maybe another 100 miles at best which may deliver something for the SE

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oooh, so close on this run...

 

you can smell the cold air in France....

 

I would be feeling it

The possibility is certainly there. Maybe a bit higher now the OP has chosen a slightly colder route?

 

I would be feeling it

The possibility is certainly there. Maybe a bit higher now the OP has chosen a slightly colder route?

 

Yeh, and the next run the position will be slightly different again.  This is roulette at the moment.. sooner or later our chips will come in... hopefully that will be at T-0 and not T240.

 

 

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Agree its a trend at the moment to the thinking (albeit low confidence) of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south providing airflow more from an easterly direction.
There are features to get out of the way first and if just one of those doesn't behave as forecast will impact further out.

problem is how to build it further north. Maybe another 100 miles at best which may deliver something for the SE

Trouble is the heights stay very low to the north, keeping the HP too far south.

 

 

The ridge over Alaska simply serves to push the vortex over towards our side of the Arctic and squash the block southwards.

 

Looks like another major cold plunge into the USA, too, with another dose of snow for northern Florida?

 

 

The -4C isotherm even briefly makes it into Mexico!

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Trouble is the heights stay very low to the north, keeping the HP too far south.

 

 

The ridge over Alaska simply serves to push the vortex over towards our side of the Arctic and squash the block southwards.

 

Looks like another major cold plunge into the USA, too, with another dose of snow for northern Florida?

 

 

The -4C isotherm even briefly makes it into Mexico!

Yet La Nina winters are meant to provide milder and warmer weather or most southern states and it turns out it's the exact opposite.

Last year it was most of Eastern Europe in the freezer for weeks and this winter it's most of the eastern 2/3rds of the USA and Canada in the freezer for weeks.

The problem is that HP is building over Alaska instead of Greenland is this correct? -If I rightly remember we were in the wrong side of the blocking last winter too!? Is it  just our luck despite being in a La Nina and easterly QBO or just sods law!?

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GEFS not conclusive, but our best option looks to be a meridonal block or "Murr sausage" advecting some colder air into the SE corner. Northern blocking looks very unlikely as has been the case all season

 

 

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GEFS not conclusive, but our best option looks to be a meridonal block or "Murr sausage" advecting some colder air into the SE corner. Northern blocking looks very unlikely as has been the case all season

 

 

Models will never be conclusive until T+72 for an easterly so pointless futile to expect any more than general probability trends at >T+200.  

As it is 10 or 11 hit -10c in London at some point over this period, so not at all bad.

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Another snow event looks to be on the cards at T162 on the GFS.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018012412/gfs-1-162.png?12 

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another one night stand with the northerly +276

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another one night stand with the northerly +276

 

Actually rather more than one night - the last week of the GFS run is a bit of a snowfest.

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