Wet rain?

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Isn't rain just rain? 

If eskimos have 12 words for types of snow we can have different rains?

What about ‘rain that goes right through you’ 😂

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Well one foot of snow in two days would be heaven to experience for anyone here in the UK haha!However I do understand (from my Geography) that much Serbia is mountainous esp the southern most part being in the heart of the Balkans and cities like Belgrade and Leskovac are at high level elevation. - I was watching various journalists and reporters there last week and it looked like a very snowy scene in Belgrade although may have melted by now - (I am a fan of Novak Djokovic) 😃.

Where in the UK are you reporting from? Don't you miss those nice warm hot summers and cold snowy winters?

Friends of mine in Romania have had quite a lot of cold rain and very little snow but now it's becoming really cold there but again very little if any snow..!?

 

Tally

 

I am originally form belgrade. Northern Serbia, inc Belgrade flat as a pancake. Historically you would get frequent snowfalls and cold spells lasting 2 - 3 weeks before the thaw sets in and so on. Temps can get to -15 in Belgrade but in thr rest of serbia 20 or 25 is achievable. In the south there are more mountains but I would call them hills i.e all below 2,000m and quite gentle slopes. East is colder and has a completly different climate as they get snow and cold exclusively with an easterly.

 

Summers are hot and dry although there have been a few dodgy ones. EG a bad one there is like a good one here. I am reporting from Kingston Upon Thames which is a snow desert.

 

Finally I am a fan of Djokovic and also of the journalist you are referrring too!

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Slight difference on 168 op run probable make no difference to the PV strengthening but might be a chillier day

 

If eskimos have 12 words for types of snow we can have different rains?

What about ‘rain that goes right through you’ 😂

 

Isn't that 'wind' (no sni*gering at the back), and more relates to New York.

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on the topic of Rain, this January has to be the driest January Ive known for some time.

To go weeks with very little rain (27mm), and to look at the charts and see total rainfall from today til the end of the month is Zero, really is astonishing.

Weve had several years now where Oct-Feb months have clocked monthly totals 100mm + This month goes very much against that. Dec we had over 140mm. which is slightly above normal.

Not complaining mind - golf course is standing up nicely to winter usage, very few winter greens in use.

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GFS 12z op continues with the trend for HP to become a touch less influential, allowing the Atlantic more say at times although does end very blocked again. 

Overall another dry run, with essentially no rain for much of the UK in the next 10 days aside from the NW of Scotland and temps fairly average for much of the time. (The odd cooler or milder blip aside). 

 

 

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Some remarkable weather this winter across the UK

Unfortunately for many it’s not their preference , snowless but the HP dominance December and January is unusual (more so in January)

The mild weather around new year was historic and January will be very sunny and very dry vs averages for a good proportion. Especially Midlands

The next 16 days by GFS is very blocked mid latitude

I’m still of strong opinion that the EQBO has impacted the result of the weak westerly influence , it’s not brought cold upper air to the UK but most definitely large periods of winter with little west or south west flow

I’m also still of opinion that La Niña has prompted the HP to emerge. There are several January’s with HP dominated months in La Niña years (most of them with similar CETs to 2022 as well)

I know there’s lots of deviation with the type of La Niña ( E or C based) and the state of the QBO but you could spend all day going further into the detail, it won’t yield much difference to the pattern

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on the topic of Rain, this January has to be the driest January Ive known for some time.

To go weeks with very little rain (27mm), and to look at the charts and see total rainfall from today til the end of the month is Zero, really is astonishing.

Weve had several years now where Oct-Feb months have clocked monthly totals 100mm + This month goes very much against that. Dec we had over 140mm. which is slightly above normal.

Not complaining mind - golf course is standing up nicely to winter usage, very few winter greens in use.

Sitting close to 50% of our January average down here which after a wet December evens us out at the moment.

Certainly wasn’t dry today. Although maybe not a great deal of rain in mm terms it coincided with my sorting out some garden waste to take to the tip and I got thoroughly soaked by the heavy fine rain. Definitely a “wet rain”.

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WX Summary shows an interestingly large blob of cold air far out to the east but W Europe continues mild with oC isotherm still pushed back to the further side of Poland. Very dry week 1 for Europe generally, and drier than shown yesterday for week 2 though pptn is there for NW Britain and Norway.

Jet currently running N of Britain but moving S to affect Britain from Fri 1st; no long and strong flows, more a series of pulses.

GFS op - HP over the UK for the rest of Jan, more firmly so than shown yesterday, flattening out S-wards from Tue 1st with zonal W-lies. The LP shown yesterday has been replaced by an even deeper one 940mb S of Iceland Sat 5th with gales in all parts

GEFS - cold now, milder around Tue 25th, then mean close to norm for rest of period but little agreement between ensemble members. Rain beginning to appear in an increasing number of runs from 1st Feb

FAX wants to get rid of the HP from Mon 24th with small disturbances moving from Atlantic to N Scotland

ECM also shows a weaker HP around the 24th, then re-instates it but some way S with NW/W-lies for all by Sun 30th

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Was flicking through some grib data (since 1950) last night to see if any other winter month had such a long run of anticyclonic weather and it would seem that the prolonged spell of high pressure this month is not unprecedented. A few notable episodes in history standout but February 1965 stands out the most. 

(map shows the monthly mean pressure pattern and values for Feb '65)

A pattern not unlike the current month, but mean position of the high a little more north in general which allowed in more potent cold air masses in on a more regular basis. A monthly MSLP mean of over 1930hPa over much of Ireland and the western portions of the UK in a Winter month is just incredible. 

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January 92 was flagged up on Twitter.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1992&month=Jan&dom=01&var=HPA&region=NA&level=500&hour=00

 

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January 92 was flagged up on Twitter.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1992&month=Jan&dom=01&var=HPA&region=NA&level=500&hour=00

 

Nice resource!

January '63 (and January '64 interestingly enough) and February 2012 are other notables:

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A monthly MSLP mean of over 1930hPa over much of Ireland and the western portions of the UK in a Winter month is just incredible. 

It certainly would be!

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This persistent UK anticyclone looks likely to help push very cold air down across Turkey all the way to Cyprus. Ankara is expecting highs of -5C next week with snow. Even Antalya is showing rain and snow next Tuesday. Nicosia rain with highs of 9c several days next week. The Troodos mountains look like they have lovely ski conditions now with more snow on the way over the next few days ....

http://www.skicyprus.com/webcam/ 

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This persistent UK anticyclone looks likely to help push very cold air down across Turkey all the way to Cyprus. Ankara is expecting highs of -5C next week with snow. Even Antalya is showing rain and snow next Tuesday. Nicosia rain with highs of 9c several days next week. The Troodos mountains look like they have lovely ski conditions now with more snow on the way over the next few days ....

http://www.skicyprus.com/webcam/

Will be watching with interest and the weather observer Kita throw hot water into the air at -10.8C and become icy so fast that we see in colder areas.  Never tried in here sadly.

It's looking poor for February, no sign at all of a cold spell, we've hardly had a hint of a Scandi high all Winter when basically all the long range signals indicated we should have a cold spell at some point. I think this Winter has taught me to just accept that the weather is random and will do what it wants. There's no point trying to make long range predictions really, it's all just down to luck.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=28552&lid=ENS&bw=1

Staying very cold and one go far as -10C uppers last reached in 1950 when it was 2C maxiumum daytime.  

Imagine if was here we would be looking at -10 to -15C uppers.  

It's looking poor for February, no sign at all of a cold spell, we've hardly had a hint of a Scandi high all Winter when basically all the long range signals indicated we should have a cold spell at some point. I think this Winter has taught me to just accept that the weather is random and will do what it wants. There's no point trying to make long range predictions really, it's all just down to luck.

I agree it currently looks poor for Feb. My view (and I know many either won't like this and / or think I'm over simplifying ) is that recent climatology is as good a guide as anything. When month after month is  coming in above CET you're on the back foot to begin with. 

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