Thanks GW

Lots going mild for January 

It would be quite easy just to go for a default 1C above average for this month, or indeed most months. However I fell that there were enough cold signals out there to rein that tempation in, therfore I went for something only slightly above average.

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Met Office Hadley        11.3c       Anomaly      7.7c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                     10.57c     Anomaly      6.42c

Netweather                  11.53c     Anomaly      7.34c

Peasedown St John      11.37c     Anomaly     5.92c. 

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Thank you everyone for your kind messages that were sent with your January predictions. Looking forward to another year of the competition. Sorry I meant to mention that yesterday.

I have had a few predictions in for the annual CET as well so here is the table for the record.

Table

Seeing the CET at 11.3 is fairly terrifying with a guess just below the LTA.  Nevertheless, Im hoping for quite a lot of high pressure to bring some foggy days and some chilly nights as the month progresses, and I hope an absence of more record breaking mildness.

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Thank you everyone for your kind messages that were sent with your January predictions. Looking forward to another year of the competition. Sorry I meant to mention that yesterday.

I have had a few predictions in for the annual CET as well so here is the table for the record.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Table

Thanks GW; I'd quite like to do this one as well- but does it have the same deadline penalty-free, given the timescale?

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Its coming down slowly lol

Down to 10.1 IMBY

Cold few days ahead will drop it to 6-7 from my estimate

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Thanks GW; I'd quite like to do this one as well- but does it have the same deadline penalty-free, given the timescale?

The deadline is more flexible on this one given the annual nature of the prediction. I am happy to keep it open for another day or two so feel free to send in your prediction.

 

The deadline is more flexible on this one given the annual nature of the prediction. I am happy to keep it open for another day or two so feel free to send in your prediction.

I've just sent you my guess. Cheers again GW.

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Met  Office Hadley        10.5c      Anomaly      7.1c        provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                      9.41c     Anomaly       5.25c

Netweather                   10.6c     Anomaly      6.41C

Peasedown St John      9.14c     Anomaly    3.69c.

 

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Met  Office Hadley        10.5c      Anomaly      7.1c        provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                      9.41c     Anomaly       5.25c

Netweather                   10.6c     Anomaly      6.41C

Peasedown St John      9.14c     Anomaly    3.69c.

 

That must be one of the highest anomalies for the beginning of a month, excluding the first day?

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I did a double take at those annual CET guesses thinking they might be mad mild Jan predictions !
I am sure one year we will see Jan or Feb records smashed in much the same way as Dec 2015 tore up the record books.
People on here will moan and moan when it happens but I always find an extreme CET interesting whichever end of the scale it's at. Saving a bundle on heating is always a bonus too...

Met Office Hadley        8.8c        Anomaly       5.4c provisional to 4th

Metcheck                     7.84c      Anomaly       3.68c

Netweather                  8.92c      Anomaly       4.73c

Peasedown St John     7.4c       Anomaly        1.99c.       

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I did a double take at those annual CET guesses thinking they might be mad mild Jan predictions !
I am sure one year we will see Jan or Feb records smashed in much the same way as Dec 2015 tore up the record books.
People on here will moan and moan when it happens but I always find an extreme CET interesting whichever end of the scale it's at. Saving a bundle on heating is always a bonus too...

This past 3 days shows just what's possible as we learned from Decmber 2015.

 

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It's possible that I might be wrong with what I'm about to say, but I am pretty certain that Gavin P. mentioned in a recent video that the Met Office were going to be moving away from using the really old 1961-1991 averages for their CET page (where I will assume that Arty gets the info for his daily updates here, although I'm sure that he will tell me otherwise if that isn't the case), and switching to the much more up to date 1991-2020 averages for that.

Since the vast majority of months are usually warmer than average these days, I'm sure that this will result in those temperature anomalies being much smaller as a result, with more months possibly even being colder than average. I'm almost certain that Gavin P. had said that this change would happen during this month (although as I have said already, I could be wrong there), but that hasn't happened yet.

I am therefore wondering whether or not, anyone knows of any plans by the Met Office to start using those newer averages for the CET anamolies instead of the old ones, and possibly even when that is likely to happen.

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It's possible that I might be wrong with what I'm about to say, but I am pretty certain that Gavin P. mentioned in a recent video that the Met Office were going to be moving away from using the really old 1961-2020 averages for their CET page (where I will assume that Arty gets the info for his daily updates here, although I'm sure that he will tell me otherwise if that isn't the case), and switching to the much more up to date 1991-2020 averages for that.

Since the vast majority of months are usually warmer than average these days, I'm sure that this will result in those temperature anomalies being much smaller as a result, with more months possibly even being colder than average. I'm almost certain that Gavin P. had said that this change would happen during this month (although as I have said already, I could be wrong there), but that hasn't happened yet.

I am therefore wondering whether or not, anyone knows of any plans by the Met Office to start using those newer averages for the CET anamolies instead of the old ones, and possibly even when that is likely to happen.

I Have enquired to Met Office who will reply soon.

They may be staying with the present figures due to climate warming.

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Met Office Hadley        7.7c       Anomaly      4.3c provisional to 5th

Metcheck                     6.57c     Anomaly      2.42c

Netweather                  7.7c      Anomaly       3.57c

Peasedown St John      7.75c    Anomaly       2.5c. 

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I Have enquired to Met Office who will reply soon.

They may be staying with the present figures due to climate warming.

Thanks for that Arty.

People often laugh at your typos not just on these threads, but also on the daily CC and monthly precipitation threads even though they are usually very few and far between.

The reason why I have mentioned that is because I realised after posting here that I had made a typo here myself, as I had written 1961-2020 as the old averages when I meant to say 1961-1991.

Luckily, I was able to fix that in my own post but if someone then quotes what I have posted into their reply, I then can't fix that as the only person who can do that is the person who actually made that reply.

 

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Thanks for that Arty.

People often laugh at your typos not just on these threads, but also on the daily CC and monthly precipitation threads even though they are usually very few and far between.

The reason why I have mentioned that is because I realised after posting here that I had made a typo here myself, as I had written 1961-2020 as the old averages when I meant to say 1961-1991.

Luckily, I was able to fix that in my own post but if someone then quotes what I have posted into their reply, I then can't fix that as the only person who can do that is the person who actually made that reply.

 

Don't worry about typos. Seriously, nobody cares.

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Don't worry about typos. Seriously, nobody cares.

I generally don't worry about typos, but they can be funny at times and there's nothing like a laugh every now and then.

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It’s coming down slowly 🤣
IMBY now 5.9 still very high for January but I’m confident it’ll come under 5 this month

See how cold it gets next week if HP provides good conditions

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