I wonder whether the west European heat dome will still be in evidence this summer. Very interesting.

Back in Feb there was lot of heat over Spain and NW Africa and seem ready to pounce on us which we got it in end of Feb warm spell .  Seem now all gone and losing 1 month of useable long day light hours after clocks gone forward with unwelcome boring cold weather persisting and stuck indoors.  Mind you we only 2 months to the longest day so something need to change quickly and sooner than later.  Hope the sign 2 runs going for 10C uppers on the graph Gooner put a while ago to see trends and become materialized.

The Beeb now talking about Nly winds after midweek , maybe they have switched to ECM 

ECM 0Z , 12 Z just rolling out 

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ECM 240 Looks chilly 

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16-dayer - warming up slowly but suggestion of a northerly plunge in week 2 down the N Sea to reach the alps - not spectacularly so but still cool for the time of year and perhaps noticeable on E coast. Remaining rather dry for UK except for extreme NW; big amounts of rain in the Adriatic/Balkans.

GFS - current HP ridge to Norway stays to Tue 20th and after slight weakness (less than previously forecast) re-establishes over E Anglia 1030mb Fri 23rd, perhaps with brief N-lies in N Sea the previous day. The HP then moves around in the general area of the UK with LP nibbling at its edges: HP to NE so SE-ly winds Mon 26th, to NW Sat 1st so NE-lies , to Scotland Mon 3rd with S-lies.

GEFS temps back to seasonal norm Tue 20th, mean staying close to norm in S & E through to Mon 3rd but with spread developing to reach +/- 7C  from Sun 26th - in the N & W less spread but more likely  a little above norm around Sat 25th and below Sat 1st; op & control stay close to norm. Small amounts of rain at various times from different runs, largest amounts in SW later on.

ECM - more of a N-ly affecting the E coast Thu 22nd (BBC concurred last night and made it stronger and more widespread ) HP only just hanging on as a ridge from Shetland S-wards Sun 25th with LP in Baltic and off Brittany compared to the broader HP on GFS covering the whole region then HP strengthening Mon 26th more to NW than shown in GFS (yesterday's 12z had it a long way NW, up by Greenland, with LP affecting the whole of the UK)

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Back in Feb there was lot of heat over Spain and NW Africa and seem ready to pounce on us which we got it in end of Feb warm spell .  Seem now all gone and losing 1 month of useable long day light hours after clocks gone forward with unwelcome boring cold weather persisting and stuck indoors.  Mind you we only 2 months to the longest day so something need to change quickly and sooner than later.  Hope the sign 2 runs going for 10C uppers on the graph Gooner put a while ago to see trends and become materialized.

 I am beginning to wonder if things will set up differently this summer. I think you've got to go back to 2014 to find a year when 34C wasn't reached in the UK. 

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 I am beginning to wonder if things will set up differently this summer. I think you've got to go back to 2014 to find a year when 34C wasn't reached in the UK. 

It seem not us only getting too much cold to cool weather as in Death Valley USA also not very hot as normal for April as by now should be some 40's days but so far struggled to 38C 101F as the highest this month, 43-45C are the normal highest maxes in April.  Regarding this summer as long is settled, dry and many warm days even not exceeding 34C this year.   Last year was horrid with many days were too cool and few hot days so i rather take other way around this time.

6z gives a lift in temps before a slight decline 

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16-dayer - warming up slowly but suggestion of a northerly plunge in week 2 down the N Sea to reach the alps - not spectacularly so but still cool for the time of year and perhaps noticeable on E coast. Remaining rather dry for UK except for extreme NW; big amounts of rain in the Adriatic/Balkans.

GFS - current HP ridge to Norway stays to Tue 20th and after slight weakness (less than previously forecast) re-establishes over E Anglia 1030mb Fri 23rd, perhaps with brief N-lies in N Sea the previous day. The HP then moves around in the general area of the UK with LP nibbling at its edges: HP to NE so SE-ly winds Mon 26th, to NW Sat 1st so NE-lies , to Scotland Mon 3rd with S-lies.

GEFS temps back to seasonal norm Tue 20th, mean staying close to norm in S & E through to Mon 3rd but with spread developing to reach +/- 7C  from Sun 26th - in the N & W less spread but more likely  a little above norm around Sat 25th and below Sat 1st; op & control stay close to norm. Small amounts of rain at various times from different runs, largest amounts in SW later on.

ECM - more of a N-ly affecting the E coast Thu 22nd (BBC concurred last night and made it stronger and more widespread ) HP only just hanging on as a ridge from Shetland S-wards Sun 25th with LP in Baltic and off Brittany compared to the broader HP on GFS covering the whole region then HP strengthening Mon 26th more to NW than shown in GFS (yesterday's 12z had it a long way NW, up by Greenland, with LP affecting the whole of the UK)

Be pretty much a full blown drought here by then. Virtally no useable rain for the last six weeks here.

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Jetstream remaining fragmented, with branches to N and S of the UK. The S branch is more coherent and quite strong through the Med at times with just a small N-ly flick Fri 30th being the only significant interaction with the UK. (the fragment from the N-ly branch due for Tue 20th and previously noted is now forecast to stay out to the NE)

GFS - current HP weakening Tue 20th (but not enough to produce the N-ly seen in other forecasts) soon replaced by new HP cell Thu 22nd centred over UK 1025mb moving away NE-wards and allowing trough off SW Ireland to bring in SE-lies Mon 26th. That trough hangs around and deepens irregularly with some input from the NE, so not really warm, and is centred 995 mb Biscay Sun 2nd before filling.

GEFS - temps rising through norm to a few days around Mon 26th before dipping to slightly below Fri 30th; unlike yesterday this covers all the UK, not just the N (but control is a cold outlier in all areas). Some runs suggest a little rain after Sun 25th, most likely in the W and/or later on.

ECM - positions the HP on Thu 22nd further W, enough to allow cold air from the N to move down across UK (again BBC Week Ahead agrees) and then links the LP Mon 26th more strongly with Scandinavia so a broader flow of NE-lies then and for the next couple of days.

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16-dayer still showing an ever-so-gradual warm-up from the SW, no more than would be expected for the time of year, though the worst of the cold pool over W Europe is finally dissipating. Dry in week 1, some rain working into the west of Uk in week2, even then most of the heavy stuff either towards Iceland or in a broad band across S Europe,

GFS - current HP weakening and moving to NW with cold N-ly plunge mainly affecting the other side of the N Sea Wed 21st but HP back over UK Fri 23rd ; E-lies then developing linked to LP over Spain, for a while, before pressure drops generally and a 'normal' W-ly pattern emerges with LP 970 mb near Iceland Fri 30th moving in to affect all UK and centred Scotland 990mb Tue 4th

GEFS - temp a little above norm around Sun 25th (but only at norm in N & E), dropping to a few degrees  below Wed 28th and staying there until Sun 2nd when (with considerable spread) indication of something warmer. More rain forecast than yesterday, small amounts from Sun 25th and some quite big totals after Fri 30th though not in all runs. The N and Scotland have more persistent rain after the 30th but fewer big totals.

The BBC puts in a dip in temp later this week which doesn't show up on GEFS

ECM (12z after 23rd) Similar to GFS up to Tue 27th when as HP declines more of a N-ly than a W-ly -later edit - thi N-ly then transmutes into LP on the Atlantic as in GFS but the LP Thu 29th is less deep and further S, off W Ireland

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Is the UK weather doing its customary downhill slide as we approach the first May Bank Holiday? Or will the models relent and allow the continuation of largely dry conditions?

Stay tuned .....

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Is the UK weather doing its customary downhill slide as we approach the first May Bank Holiday? Or will the models relent and allow the continuation of largely dry conditions?

Stay tuned .....

Hope not - desperately need some rain here.

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 Hope not - desperately need some rain here.

I agree that rain is needed now, but ideally not over the May Bank Holiday. Before or after this suits me fine so long as it is not the flip to weeks of Atlantic dominated cyclonic crud. 

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Well the GFS 6z produces a ridiculously high pressure dominated run. Drought would start to be become a real issue if it verifies. 

 

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Well the GFS 6z produces a ridiculously high pressure dominated run. Drought would start to be become a real issue if it verifies. 

 

This is only balancing out the very wet winter. December was the wettest since 1929 and the fourth wettest December on record.

 

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Ominously persistent Greenland high in the various recent runs. If that hangs around into summer it’ll be 2012 and 2007 again (with commensurate record Arctic ice melt no doubt).

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Ominously persistent Greenland high in the various recent runs. If that hangs around into summer it’ll be 2012 and 2007 again (with commensurate record Arctic ice melt no doubt).

Yes I think this will be the pattern this year. And the ice melt will be consequentially record breaking, and that itself could ensure another cooler winter 2021/22.

Greta Thumberg’s trio of documentary programmes on the BBC is a must watch. One startling statistic was that right in the middle of lock-down, when all economies world wide were shut down, emissions of CO2 did take a noticeable and measurable drop, almost halved in fact, but all that did was take us back to 2006 in terms of emissions. 2006!!

I was hoping they might have said 1956, but if a full pandemic lockdown internationally takes us just back to 2006, we are in trouble when considering the Paris pledge of 1.5 degrees of warming.

It’s going to take more than my buying a full EV and my veggie dinner of curried cauliflower and cuscus with spinach and a curry sauce with roasted cashews. China and the USA account for 50% of emissions, and they are well behind even the UK at reducing their carbon footprint.

We need to be spending the same money as for the pandemic (arguably a symptom of climate change) on switching over the technologies to renewables, carbon capture and sustainable agriculture. Most of all - stopping any more de-afforestation internationally.

It worried me today to hear a report of a national House-builder’s planning exec saying they don't want low maintenance wild flower turf in the public open spaces on their estates because the Essex housewife likes only close mown lawn grass. If that is the true reflection of their policy and the public at large - we are defiantly doomed: We are going to fry in our own Kentucky fried fat.

Perhaps we should really Enjoy the cooler temps while you can...

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Yes I think this will be the pattern this year. And the ice melt will be consequentially record breaking, and that itself could ensure another cooler winter 2021/22.

Greta Thumberg’s trio of documentary programmes on the BBC is a must watch. One startling statistic was that right in the middle of lock-down, when all economies world wide were shut down, emissions of CO2 did take a noticeable and measurable drop, almost halved in fact, but all that did was take us back to 2006 in terms of emissions. 2006!!

I was hoping they might have said 1956, but if a full pandemic lockdown internationally takes us just back to 2006, we are in trouble when considering the Paris pledge of 1.5 degrees of warming.

It’s going to take more than my buying a full EV and my veggie dinner of curried cauliflower and cuscus with spinach and a curry sauce with roasted cashews. China and the USA account for 50% of emissions, and they are well behind even the UK at reducing their carbon footprint.

We need to be spending the same money as for the pandemic (arguably a symptom of climate change) on switching over the technologies to renewables, carbon capture and sustainable agriculture. Most of all - stopping any more de-afforestation internationally.

It worried me today to hear a report of a national House-builder’s planning exec saying they don't want low maintenance wild flower turf in the public open spaces on their estates because the Essex housewife likes only close mown lawn grass. If that is the true reflection of their policy and the public at large - we are defiantly doomed: We are going to fry in our own Kentucky fried fat.

Perhaps we should really Enjoy the cooler temps while you can...

Good post.

As for the cooler weather, it's all about synoptics for us as ever.

I'm not sure how the summer will play out and talk of 2007/2012 is obviously premature

What we have seen is the ease to which warmer synoptics can lead to records being broken which is a useful yardstick when trying to educate people to where we are.

Models remain average/cool for the time being with rainfall rather limited. 

 

Yes I think this will be the pattern this year. And the ice melt will be consequentially record breaking, and that itself could ensure another cooler winter 2021/22.

Greta Thumberg’s trio of documentary programmes on the BBC is a must watch. One startling statistic was that right in the middle of lock-down, when all economies world wide were shut down, emissions of CO2 did take a noticeable and measurable drop, almost halved in fact, but all that did was take us back to 2006 in terms of emissions. 2006!!

I was hoping they might have said 1956, but if a full pandemic lockdown internationally takes us just back to 2006, we are in trouble when considering the Paris pledge of 1.5 degrees of warming.

It’s going to take more than my buying a full EV and my veggie dinner of curried cauliflower and cuscus with spinach and a curry sauce with roasted cashews. China and the USA account for 50% of emissions, and they are well behind even the UK at reducing their carbon footprint.

We need to be spending the same money as for the pandemic (arguably a symptom of climate change) on switching over the technologies to renewables, carbon capture and sustainable agriculture. Most of all - stopping any more de-afforestation internationally.

It worried me today to hear a report of a national House-builder’s planning exec saying they don't want low maintenance wild flower turf in the public open spaces on their estates because the Essex housewife likes only close mown lawn grass. If that is the true reflection of their policy and the public at large - we are defiantly doomed: We are going to fry in our own Kentucky fried fat.

Perhaps we should really Enjoy the cooler temps while you can...

I would like to see the source for that statistic as it seems inaccurate based on the data series.(Early 1980s would be more in line with a halving or even near halving). The data will be noteworthy enough without such spin IMO.

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Jetstream forecast still on a two-stream solution N and S of UK to Sun 25th, but in the week after that fragments from the N branch breakoff to run SE-wards down the N Sea and may be close enough to direct some LP activity to the E coast. Some big loops then develop and there is then some jet activity over the UK, from the N Wed 28th and Mon 3rd, and from the S Sat 1st and Wed 5th.

GFS - HP over UK to Tue 27th with some N-ly airflow down the E coast ( though not as much as in other models) when it moves away to Greenland allowing first E-lies going round to N-lies by Sat 1st. Deep LP over Greenland then appears pumping up air from the S over the UK to generate new HP cell here Tue 4th. Not clear where the heavy rain through  the Channel shown on the 16-dayer for week 2 is to come from.

GEFS - temps close to norm (a bit above in S) to Tue 27th, then a long cool period verging on cold (esp op & control runs ca 6C below norm) through to Wed 5th. Some rain about from the 27th but not consistently predicted and generally not a lot though a few runs with big totals in the S.

ECM is one of the models emphasising N-lies for the E coast this week (BBC is another). On Tue 27th the HP slips away to the SW rather than going to Greenland, and a small LP develops W of Iceland running SE-wards down to the Channel 1005mb Fri 30th bringing cool air with it.

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