BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Often warm and dry but turning more showery later
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Saturday 23 May – Sunday 31 May
Windy and wet in the north, then drier and warmer
This weekend begins on an unseasonably wet and windy note in the north - the result of a deep area of low pressure tracking just to the north of Scotland. With trees in full-leaf, strong winds across northwest Scotland on Saturday presents a risk of disruption to travel and services. Northwest Scotland will also see very high rainfall totals this weekend, with showers and longer spells of heavy rain throughout Saturday and into Sunday.
Meanwhile, further south, Sunday will turn increasingly fine, with winds easing and some sunshine later in the day. This heralds the quick return of high pressure from the southwest, and high pressure will largely be in charge for much of this week. England and Wales can expect some dry and sunny days, and temperatures will climb into the mid-20s Celsius once more. Whilst Northern Ireland and Scotland will also see some dry and warm days this week, areas of cloud and rain look set to move in from the west at times.
There is a chance that rain could also reach further south and east later this week, but it seems more likely that high pressure will block any spells of wet weather reaching into England and Wales. With much of the southeast of England recording little to no rainfall so far this spring, the lack of any extended periods of wet weather will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers.
Monday 1 June – Sunday 7 June
Chance of rain in the north, otherwise dry
The start of June marks the beginning of the meteorological summer, and the strength of the sun will continue to build ahead of the longest day of the year later in the month.
High pressure is expected to build across the North Atlantic Ocean and extend eastwards into the British Isles for much of this week, bringing plenty of dry and fine weather. However, low pressure still expected to the north of the UK, across Iceland and Scandinavia, and will may threaten the north of the UK with rain and breezier conditions at times. That said, any rain is unlikely to be very prolonged or widespread, and rain may stay entirely confined to more northern parts of the UK.
There is some uncertainty surrounding the temperatures for the week. A northwesterly flow may be in place earlier in the week, which would allow cooler air mass to feed in, bringing a few days of temperatures below the seasonal average. This is unlikely to be anything unbenign though, and it will likely trend warmer later in the week, as high pressure continues to build overhead. There is even a chance later in the week that a more southerly flow will develop over the British Isles, and give some very warm days.
Monday 8 June – Sunday 21 June
Warm but turning more showery at times
Heading into mid-June, it still looks as though high pressure will often be near to the UK. As a result, we can expect strong and warm sunshine at times. With warmth spreading in from the near-continent at times, some very warm days seem likely. However, it looks as though high pressure areas will gradually move a little further north and east. Over England and Wales, this should occasionally allow showery weather to spread in from the south. In any warmer and humid weather, we could even see some thunderstorms. Further north, in Scotland and Northern Ireland, there is a greater likelihood of drier than average conditions persisting.
The main uncertainty regarding this period is exactly where the high pressure will become centred. There are chances that the high stays directly over the UK and this would lead to a continuation of the unusually dry and settled weather we have been experiencing throughout spring. After such a dry few months, this scenario would lead to extremely dry soils and pastures across the country.
Further ahead
We will have a closer look at the potentially very warm conditions possible in mid-June, and discuss whether we can expect any meaningful rainfall throughout the next month. Could we be looking at the start of a drought for some?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook