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Offline Stormchaser  
#61 Posted : 21 September 2019 17:32:01(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Finally got to look at some numbers too, out of interest.


This current week's mean minimum will likely be somewhere in the mid-single digits, despite the one for Sunday being on the mild side.


The mean maximum could be in the high teens or low 20s. As GW's informative update shows us, this has resulted in CET means near or a tad below average overall - except perhaps for today, which we don't know the final obs for yet. Tomorrow might do enough to mean the CET was very near average for the week as a whole.


Looking at next week and using GFS raw numbers with a slight upward bias adjustment of +0.5*C applied, the mean CET max may only be in the low or mid-17s, a little below par for the time of year. By contrast, however, the mean min looks to be in the mid-high 11s - and that's with the bias adjustment being less than it justifiably could be (I'm a cautious fellow!). Notably mild for late September.


An above-average overall CET mean for the week results. An estimate using the 12z GFS alone gives me 14.5*C to 29th, before a cooler 30th drops it to 14.4*C. Note, though, that my estimates lack the level of precision that GW's do. Even so - I see a finish (after adjustments) just about in the 14s as a possibility. Not something I'd actually bet on though .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline Caz  
#62 Posted : 21 September 2019 19:02:09(UTC)
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  Thanks GW and SC for your informative posts as always.  They are much appreciated and needed to reign in the dreamers!  Me!  


15c?  Doh!  Someone please remind me next year that clear skies mean cold nights!  I did put my guess in very early due to holidays, but I’d have stuck to my original thoughts anyway and by the end of the first week, I thought my guess was looking good!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Stormchaser  
#63 Posted : 21 September 2019 19:31:21(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post


  Thanks GW and SC for your informative posts as always.  They are much appreciated and needed to reign in the dreamers!  Me!  


15c?  Doh!  Someone please remind me next year that clear skies mean cold nights!  I did put my guess in very early due to holidays, but I’d have stuck to my original thoughts anyway and by the end of the first week, I thought my guess was looking good!   



You're most welcome Caz 


I think you're being a little hard on yourself here by the way - with a brisk flow from anywhere between southwesterly (tropical maritime air) and southeasterly (drier air but still capable in a strong flow), high pressure has been known to bring warm days without cold nights even very late in the month.


Indeed, there was a time when the models were consistently predicting that sort of setup to dominate the week just gone and even into next week. That's when thoughts of final CETs somewhere in the 15s were circulating.


It took a sudden large uptick in tropical cyclone activity, causing the jet stream to undertake 'narrower' loops (reaching more north and south, but less west and east), to force the ridge to drift a little west of the UK and then slowly back over, leading to an import of fresh air which then stagnated overhead and created near-optimal conditions for the lowest CET minimums achievable at this time of year (except perhaps with a rare Arctic northerly).


So, with a little luck, I think you could easily have been right on the money this month .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline Caz  
#64 Posted : 22 September 2019 06:38:13(UTC)
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You’re too kind SC!    But thank you for your faith and your analysis.


You’re right!  The elements are finely balanced in such a small maritime landmass, which is what makes the British weather so fickle and so interesting!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline ARTzeman  
#65 Posted : 22 September 2019 09:50:34(UTC)
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Met Office Hadley          14.2c.      Anomaly       0.3c. Provisional to 21st.


Metcheck                       14.03c     Anomaly       0.30c


Netweather                    14.54c     Anomaly       0.85c


Peasedown St John        14.62c     Anomaly       -0.1c.  



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline ARTzeman  
#66 Posted : 23 September 2019 09:42:47(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Met Office Hadley          14.3c.      Anomaly      0.4c. Provisional to 22nd


Metcheck                       14.9c       Anomaly       0.37c


Netweather                    14.64c     Anomaly       0.95c


Peasedown St John        14.52c      Anomaly       -0.20c.  



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline ARTzeman  
#67 Posted : 24 September 2019 10:01:38(UTC)
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Met Office Hadley           14.4c.      Anomaly       0.5c. Provisional to 23rd.


Metcheck                        14.16c     Anomaly      0.44c


Netweather                     14.68c     Anomaly      0.99c


Peasedown St John        14.69c      Anomaly     -0.03c.            



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Bertwhistle  
#68 Posted : 24 September 2019 18:40:36(UTC)
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D'you know what Col? It'll be hard to knock you off your spot, even now; and even then, you'll grab it again in October, I bet.


 


 


 


 


 


No pressure..

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake!
Online Col  
#69 Posted : 24 September 2019 19:15:43(UTC)
Col

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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post


D'you know what Col? It'll be hard to knock you off your spot, even now; and even then, you'll grab it again in October, I bet.


 


 


 


 


 


No pressure..



By the calculations worked out by The Professional I will be down to joint leader at 14.10C. If it was just the raw figure that counted I would be fine, loving the nice mild nights at the moment and some more to come but it will be the downgrade that will clobber me this month.


I expect to lose my lead, although it will be close.


Pressure, what pressure :)

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Offline Whether Idle  
#70 Posted : 24 September 2019 19:35:00(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post


 


By the calculations worked out by The Professional I will be down to joint leader at 14.10C. If it was just the raw figure that counted I would be fine, loving the nice mild nights at the moment and some more to come but it will be the downgrade that will clobber me this month.


I expect to lose my lead, although it will be close.


Pressure, what pressure :)



Ive a suspicion that the downgrade will be less severe this month if the mild nights continue.  So a finish around 14.2 is not out of the question, which would leave you ahead by a whisker.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline Caz  
#71 Posted : 25 September 2019 02:54:01(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post


Ive a suspicion that the downgrade will be less severe this month if the mild nights continue.  So a finish around 14.2 is not out of the question, which would leave you ahead by a whisker.


  I’d say so too!  It’s looking OK for Col.


Another mild night here last night and forecasts to stay in double figures, although falling slightly to the end of the month.  So daily means here will come in above the current CET, increasing the total slightly. If the CET areas mirror this, Col’s lead is safe! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline ARTzeman  
#72 Posted : 25 September 2019 09:50:06(UTC)
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           14.4c.       Anomaly      0.6c. Provisional to 24th.


Metcheck                        14.20c      Anomaly      0.48c


Netweather                     14.74c      Anomaly      1.05c


PSJ                                14.69c      Anomaly       -0.03c.         



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline ARTzeman  
#73 Posted : 26 September 2019 10:10:15(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          14.7c.        Anomaly       0.7c. Provisional to 25th.


Metcheck                       14.26c       Anomaly       0.54c


Netweather                    14.78c       Anomaly       1.09c


Peasedown St John        14.65c.      Anomaly       -0.07c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Online Saint Snow  
#74 Posted : 26 September 2019 11:19:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


Met Office Hadley          14.7c.        Anomaly       0.7c. Provisional to 25th.


Metcheck                       14.26c       Anomaly       0.54c


Netweather                    14.78c       Anomaly       1.09c


Peasedown St John        14.65c.      Anomaly       -0.07c. 



 


Come on! Keep going upwards!!


 


Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:
"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
Offline lanky  
#75 Posted : 26 September 2019 11:48:49(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post


 


 


Come on! Keep going upwards!!


 




Just to be a pain -


I think that should have said 14.5 not 14.7


 

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Online Col  
#76 Posted : 26 September 2019 11:59:41(UTC)
Col

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Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post


 


Just to be a pain -


I think that should have said 14.5 not 14.7


 



I did think that was a very big rise over just one day so late in the month.

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Offline The Professional  
#77 Posted : 26 September 2019 13:25:39(UTC)
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Yep, current (provisional) mean is 14.52c to the 25th, found here: https://www.metoffice.go...hadcet/cet_mean_est_2019
Offline Caz  
#78 Posted : 26 September 2019 13:46:21(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


Met Office Hadley          14.7c.        Anomaly       0.7c. Provisional to 25th.


Metcheck                       14.26c       Anomaly       0.54c


Netweather                    14.78c       Anomaly       1.09c


Peasedown St John        14.65c.      Anomaly       -0.07c. 


Artie’s bloomer!  


I thought it was too late in the month for it to rise that much!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Online Saint Snow  
#79 Posted : 26 September 2019 13:51:53(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post


Artie’s bloomer!  


I thought it was too late in the month for it to rise that much!  



 


Hopefully it'll reach that (and more!) by the end of the month.


It needs to go as high as possible, before the inevitable downjustment.

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:
"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
Offline Caz  
#80 Posted : 26 September 2019 15:40:34(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post
 


Hopefully it'll reach that (and more!) by the end of the month.


It needs to go as high as possible, before the inevitable downjustment.


Sadly, I think that’s too big an ask.  We only have four days to go and at this stage of the month it takes a big change in temperature to make much difference to the running mean. 


If only we hadn’t had clear night skies last week, bringing the low minima.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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