I think GLOSEA is a good reason to buy a snow shovel based on last years performance.

Yes, GLOSEA appears to be a forward indicator of opposite outcomes. If GLOSEA predicts a mild overall winter with a strong PV, start stocking up on salt, shovels and fuel.

 

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Yes, GLOSEA appears to be a forward indicator of opposite outcomes. If GLOSEA predicts a mild overall winter with a strong PV, start stocking up on salt, shovels and fuel.

 

Prior to its update a few season back GLOSEA was a fairly good seasonal model, since then its hopeless and the EC seasonal is possible the worst seasonal model of them all.

 

Yes, GLOSEA appears to be a forward indicator of opposite outcomes. If GLOSEA predicts a mild overall winter with a strong PV, start stocking up on salt, shovels and fuel.

 

 

You are ignoring the Law of Sod.

 

 

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I am pretty cynical about trying to formulate these global models this far out.

I think these are generated by taking the day to day data and running in out for months ahead instead of just 4-6 days. IMO the noise rapidly swamps any meaningful data and produces in effect random numbers

As an example take a look at the August and September predictions for Nov/Dec/Jan MSLP below. These could hardley be more different to each other from a UK point of view with one showing Scandi Heights, a Southerly Jet and lower heights over NW Europe in the August run switching to a Eurotrash high and a strong northerly jet in the September effort (being the "default" MetO winter set-up)

The only bit I found interesting was the establishment of increased heights over the N Pacific in the later run (a big switch round in the later run) which recently has been the death-knell for cold winters in the UK as it re-inforcesas NW-SE jet over N America with the SW-NE wave hitting the UK with uncanny precision

 

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At this stage the folklore ideas about nature feeding herself probably have as much chance of being right - about 50-50.
I will say everyone has near record breaking hay and silage stocks round here - and it almost always is all needed one way or another.

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 EC seasonal is possible the worst seasonal model of them all.

A hugely over-rated seasonal model. Don't know how it performs for other parts of the world, but for W. Europe, it is rubbish. 

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A hugely over-rated seasonal model. Don't know how it performs for other parts of the world, but for W. Europe, it is rubbish. 

Indeed, and more so when considering how much they charge for this third rate forecasting tool.😂😂

Prior to its update a few season back GLOSEA was a fairly good seasonal model, since then its hopeless and the EC seasonal is possible the worst seasonal model of them all.

My take on this is because the programmers are being forced to put in a bias for the so called "global warming" or "climate change" or whatever they want to call it, in the algorithms, equates to rubbish in, rubbish out.

 

My take on this is because the programmers are being forced to put in a bias for the so called "global warming" or "climate change" or whatever they want to call it, in the algorithms, equates to rubbish in, rubbish out.

RIRO would indicate a problem with the source data rather than the programming. Just sayin'. 

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Not sure that was the case, despite the unsually warm spell during mid-late February. I seem to remember reading on this forum not long afterwards that February 1998 (and possibly 2002 as well) had a warmer overall CET than the same month this year did. This was likely due to Feb 1998 being mild/very mild until almost the end of the month whereas that month this year did start off quite cold in places.

I stand corrected if I am wrong about that though.

 

I think Feb 1998 was mild wet and Feb 2019 was dry and mild and it felt warm!!? This Feb 2019 was dry and warm and not mild wet south westerlies!!

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My take on this is because the programmers are being forced to put in a bias for the so called "global warming" or "climate change" or whatever they want to call it, in the algorithms, equates to rubbish in, rubbish out.

Eek.....Talk like that around here can get you banned.......... 

 

I agree though. 😂😂😂

Wasn't it just last winter that both the ec monthly and seasonal models kept going for Northern blocking to develop in the mid range only for it never to appear or get a foothold. I also seem to remember the Met officeor the BBC guys doing a get ready because winters on the way video.
As for Glosea I have yet to be convince of its use as a reliable seasonal forecasting tool.

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Article in the local paper today:

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-gearing-up-for-return-of-beast-from-the-east/

A good example of the phenomenon known as ‘The Mandela Effect’

https://theconversation.com/the-mandela-effect-and-how-your-mind-is-playing-tricks-on-you-89544

Either that or an indication of how bland the climate is becoming when the media are essentially having to make up news pertaining to non-existent extreme weather 

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Wasn't it just last winter that both the ec monthly and seasonal models kept going for Northern blocking to develop in the mid range only for it never to appear or get a foothold.

Yes all say coldest winter on the way, blizzards, beast from the east or last year 4 months of snow! and you were right all models showed blocked and cold Feb esp met Office Glosea 5 seasonal model- only for it to turn out to be a dry and warm RECORD breaking Feb! So who know's what can happen? Fingers crossed for a winter this time around. We need a cold festive and snowy Christmas! A cold seasonal Christmas is long over due isn't it!??

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I followed all the seasonal model analysis updates very closely on the run up to and during winter last year.

To be honest I was left feeling extremely disappointed by the constant chop and changing and overall poor verification stats they provided.

I hope for a variable winter offering a bit of everything, including a week long deep freeze at some point between mid December and late January but I shall not be investing my time, energy and emotion tracking it. 

If by chance we do get some cross model agreement at 72 hours for something exceptional then I may allow myself to get all silly ! 

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If by chance we do get some cross model agreement at 72 hours for something exceptional then I may allow myself to get all silly ! 

 

Exactly Steve!

Models let us down last winter esp given that we had a SSW too and whilst we all thought there was still time for us to get HLB or some SCANDINAVIAN HP etc in February like many or all models were forecasting - it turned out to be the exact opposite didn't it with warmest Feb ever recorded and somewhere in the UK reached 21c in Feb 19? - Just so crazy!! - Also it wasn't for a few days it was notably warmer and this warmth lasted for 2-3 weeks in February!! People along Exeter Quay were having picnics at half term in short sleeves and I was in Sidmouth on 15th Feb and people were sunbathing in shorts too having ice creams! - It was a warm dry not a mild wet'.

I will try not to take notice of any models until there is cross model agreement at 72 hrs.

If we can keep breaking records for hot days and nights and so on surely one day we will get a record breaking cold day in winter or something; if this makes sense?

The good news about this winter is that the SST's are warmer off the south coast of Greenland and Iceland in N. Atlantic (Opposite to this time last year), we are at Grand solar Minimum and this winter we are going from a westerly QBO to easterly (opposite of last winter) and a potential of a ENSO neutral winter. On top of that we have the potential of a -NAO given the tripol in May...!?

Fingers crossed!!

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Ideally, I would like to see a cold winter with plenty of snow and frost. Failing that though and regardless of whether we end up with a cold winter or a mild one, I just want to see something actually happening with regards to our weather so that I have something different to report on this forum instead of that same old borefest which we have seen during this autumn so far.

Having said that though, I do live in one of the most boring places in the UK on average when it comes to our weather, which means that actually getting some "interesting" weather here may well be too much to ask for.

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Ideally, I would like to see a cold winter with plenty of snow and frost. Failing that though and regardless of whether we end up with a cold winter or a mild one, I just want to see something actually happening with regards to our weather so that I have something different to report on this forum instead of that same old borefest which we have seen during this autumn so far.

Having said that though, I do live in one of the most boring places in the UK on average when it comes to our weather, which means that actually getting some "interesting" weather here may well be too much to ask for.

 

Well, you said it...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcvwr3zrw

 

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Good start for early snow cover in Siberia and as you can see there are some white patches appearing in Scandinavia too! - An impressive start, (given we're only in early October):  - Hope this trend continues!

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Good start for early snow cover in Siberia and as you can see there are some white patches appearing in Scandinavia too! - An impressive start, (given we're only in early October):  - Hope this trend continues!

your link didn’t work for me, but I think you mean this one: 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Looks fairly normal to me?