GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, July 24, 2019 11:33:14 AM
Interesting that both Met Office and BBC pick up on the chance of more continental heat in mid August
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Ally Pally Snowman
Wednesday, July 24, 2019 2:38:39 PM

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Interesting that both Met Office and BBC pick up on the chance of more continental heat in mid August

 

Yes good output from the Met Office especially if you like heat.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
Wednesday, July 24, 2019 2:41:07 PM

Monday 29 Jul - Wednesday 7 Aug

Further isolated showers and thunderstorms across eastern parts of the UK during Monday, although these will tend to ease. Elsewhere, it will be mostly dry with sunny spells. Still warm, especially in the east, but temperatures will be closer to average elsewhere. The rest of the period looks likely to see a northwest/southeast split in the weather across the UK. This will give outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy, and strong winds at times across northwestern parts, with the south and especially the southeast, likely to remain warm or very warm, with the risk of some showers, but mostly dry with sunny spells. If we get a feed of air from the south, then localised heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, and potentially hot conditions, especially across the south and southeast.

Thursday 8 Aug - Thursday 22 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. Whilst the north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather at first, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast, by the third week of August it looks as though settled weather may develop more widely for a time. However, there is also an increasing risk of showers or thunderstorms developing in the south, especially during the second half of the month. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Gavin D
Thursday, July 25, 2019 12:23:00 PM

Tuesday 30 Jul - Thursday 8 Aug

Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely in western and northern parts of the UK on Tuesday with brisk winds, but drier and brighter weather is expected in the east. The rest of the period looks likely to see a northwest/southeast split in the weather across the UK. This will give outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy, and strong winds at times across northwestern parts, with the south and especially the southeast, likely to remain warm or very warm, with the risk of some showers, but mostly dry with sunny spells. If we get a feed of air from the south, then localised heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, and potentially hot conditions, especially across the south and southeast.

Friday 9 Aug - Friday 23 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. Whilst the north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather at first, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast, by the third week of August it looks as though settled weather may develop more widely for a time. However, there is also an increasing risk of showers or thunderstorms developing in the south, especially during the second half of the month. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Gavin D
Friday, July 26, 2019 8:10:43 AM

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Much cooler
  • Rain at times to end July
  • Warmer spells in August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/26/john-hammond-month-ahead-normality-returns/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Gavin D
Friday, July 26, 2019 12:37:36 PM

Wednesday 31 Jul - Friday 9 Aug

There is higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period. Through Wednesday and Thursday, the most likely weather scenario is for low pressure to be centred to the west of the UK. This would bring rain or showers across the country, particularly across more western areas. The driest and brightest weather is expected across southeastern parts. Temperatures will generally be close to normal, although perhaps a little below average in the west. Confidence remains low thereafter, but it is most likely that low pressure will be centred to the northwest of the UK giving rise to showers or longer spells of rain here. With higher pressure towards the southeast, there is a better chance of drier and brighter weather and warmer temperatures as a result.

Saturday 10 Aug - Saturday 24 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. Whilst the north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather at first, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast, by the third week of August it looks as though settled weather is slightly more probable. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Gavin D
Saturday, July 27, 2019 9:29:06 AM

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet this weekend. Dry and warm at times in August

_________________________________

Saturday 27 July – Sunday 4 August

Rain this weekend. Becoming drier next week.

A slow moving front will lie across Scotland, northern and eastern England on Saturday. This will bring a lot of cloud and widespread rain, the rain persistent and heavy in some areas, perhaps turning locally thundery. Southern and southwestern England, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to remain largely dry with sunny spells, and only a slight chance of showers. The front will be a little further south and west on Sunday, so the Midlands, Wales and Northern Ireland will have a cloudier, wet day. The far south-west of the UK will remain largely dry, and eastern Scotland and north-east England should be a little brighter but with occasional showers.

Temperatures will be near normal for the time of year for most parts of the UK over the weekend. An Atlantic low pressure system could bring a spell of windy and wet weather to south-west and southern England on Monday and to south east England on Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the main pattern for next week will see low pressure to the west of the UK, but a ridge of high pressure building across the country. There will be some showers and rain in the north and west of the UK before the ridge of high pressure arrives, but the second half of the week should be drier than the first. Temperatures will be near normal, perhaps lifting above later in the week as high pressure arrives.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 11 August

Becoming unsettled and wetter than normal for some

After the relatively dry end to the previous week, the first full week of August looks likely to bring us more unsettled weather. The ridge of high pressure sitting across the UK is expected to drift eastwards into Europe, with Atlantic low pressure expected to move in from the west to bring spells of wet weather to many parts of the UK. It looks wetter than average for the time of year in many areas, which may be good news for some areas of the country which have been having a relatively dry summer so far.

Temperatures are likely to be a little above normal at first but will drop the near normal as the weather becomes more unsettled. There will be a chance of some windy days too. Whilst unsettled weather looks more likely than calmer weather, there is a chance that we could see high pressure clinging on. This would mean drier, less windy and slightly warmer weather, in a pattern similar to that at the start of July i.e. high pressure over the UK on a number of days with low pressure off towards Scandinavia.

Monday 12 August – Sunday 25 August

Tending to become drier and warmer in most areas.

The middle and end of August is likely to see high pressure becoming more of a feature across France and Central Europe, with the high pressure extending across the UK at times. This gives us a higher chance of seeing dry weather and could also help temperatures to rise above normal. Atlantic low pressure systems are expected to continue to track close to the north and north-west of the UK at times, so it is not expected to be completely dry with spells of showery or rainy weather likely.

Scotland could see rainfall remaining above average and it most likely to see temperatures near normal, whilst the rest of the country looks drier than normal, less windy than normal and a bit warmer too. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is for low pressure to remain the main feature across the UK, with temperatures remaining near normal, some windy days and with rainfall near or above normal in most areas. It is probably worth noting that there is a small - perhaps just a 1 in 10 - chance of another spell of very warm weather developing if high pressure is stronger across the UK.

Further ahead

The weather looks fairly changeable over August as a whole, but we'll take another look at the chances of dry and very warm weather later in the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Gavin D
Saturday, July 27, 2019 11:31:39 AM

Thursday 1 Aug - Saturday 10 Aug

There is higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period. On Thursday there are likely to be sunny spells and some showers, but many areas may remain dry. By Friday it should be dry with bright spells for most, weather fronts may spread from the west later, bringing an increasing risk of rain and showers for the first Saturday of August. It will still feel warm and humid at times, with generally light winds. Confidence remains low thereafter, but it is most likely that lower pressure will tend to dominate at first, bringing a risk of showery rain, especially in the west and northwest, however there may also be some spells of more generally settled weather, particularly towards the end of this period.

Sunday 11 Aug - Sunday 25 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. The north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Gavin D
Saturday, July 27, 2019 6:47:07 PM

Snow and hail in Yorkshire...in July

Snow has been reported as falling in Yorkshire - in the same week as the hottest July day ever recorded. Regulars at the Tan Inn watched as the white stuff began falling in North Yorkshire. The snow and hail flurries were captured from the CCTV at the pub near Richmond.

This week, the UK basked in temperatures in the 30s, which caused major disruption to transport links.

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2019-07-27/snow-and-hail-in-yorkshire-in-july/

Gavin D
Sunday, July 28, 2019 8:55:56 AM

SUMMER SIZZLER 

UK weather forecast – Britain to bake in THREE more Saharan heatwaves after hottest day ever

 

 BRITAIN is set to sizzle in THREE more Saharan heatwaves following the hottest July day ever. Temperatures are not expected to reach Thursday's high of 38.7C but the hot weather will still peak at a baking 35C next month. As early as Wednesday, heat is expected to push from the south and sweep the country.

The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze said: “Summer's gone AWOL, with a miserable few days for families on holidays. “But the heat will be back later in the week and again in mid-month, when 35C is possible.”

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9597715/uk-weather-forecast-heatwave-three-hottest-day/

SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, July 28, 2019 9:03:57 AM
Did Brian really put a figure on it? It'll be interesting to see if Brian's words were bent out of shape to suit an agenda πŸ˜‚

I expect a couple more bursts of heat as we head into August. Nice of the Sun to specify exactly how many heatwaves we're due to receive though 😎


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Arcus
Sunday, July 28, 2019 9:13:39 AM

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Snow and hail in Yorkshire...in July

Snow has been reported as falling in Yorkshire - in the same week as the hottest July day ever recorded. Regulars at the Tan Inn watched as the white stuff began falling in North Yorkshire. The snow and hail flurries were captured from the CCTV at the pub near Richmond.

This week, the UK basked in temperatures in the 30s, which caused major disruption to transport links.

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2019-07-27/snow-and-hail-in-yorkshire-in-july/

As the MetO themselves have tweeted, a complete crock. Hail, yes. Snow, no.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, July 28, 2019 9:40:52 AM

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

 

As the MetO themselves have tweeted, a complete crock. Hail, yes. Snow, no.

The same misreporting from the Tour de France. The white stuff which stopped the race was clearly hail, as you could see from the way it was being cleared up by a JCB


"Quick zephyrs blow, vexing daft Jim" - another weather pangram
roadrunnerajn
Sunday, July 28, 2019 9:58:08 AM
....and we wonder why agencies are so careful with their wording!!!

If they can’t hype it they won’t report it..


Helston Cornwall 62m asl. Land of the eternal spring (13c and overcast mizzle)
Gavin D
Sunday, July 28, 2019 12:20:29 PM

Friday 2 Aug - Sunday 11 Aug

Friday will see a chance of showers for most areas, but there will probably be a good deal of dry and sunny weather too across the UK. Into next weekend we are then most likely going to see a northwest-southeast split develop, with the wettest and windiest weather in the northwest. The best of the drier weather will be towards the southeast, where it will also remain warm. The rest of the period is likely to see low pressure close by, but confidence is low throughout this period. The wettest weather will be in the west, with rain most likely in the form of showers. Temperatures are likely to be close to or just above average, perhaps more especially across the south and southeast.

Monday 12 Aug - Monday 26 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. The north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Gavin D
Monday, July 29, 2019 11:25:52 AM

Saturday 3 Aug - Monday 12 Aug

Saturday will see a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, possibly thundery across parts of Scotland and northern England. Elsewhere, it should be mostly dry with warm sunny spells. Into next week, low pressure looks likely to be located just to the west of the UK, which would bring a west to southwesterly across the majority of the UK, with the potential for a south to southeasterly flow across the far north of the country. This pattern would bring occasional spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, especially across western parts, with daytime showers breaking out elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly be above average, with warm or very warm conditions possible across the south.

Tuesday 13 Aug - Tuesday 27 Aug

Into the second week of August and there is now a strong signal for unsettled conditions to prevail, with low pressure likely either close to or just to the west of the UK. This pattern would bring a predominately south to southwesterly airflow, which would generally lead to above average temperatures and rainfall. During the second half of August, low pressure looks set to be situated to the northeast of the UK, with perhaps higher pressure towards the southwest of the country. This pattern would lead to a cooler and showery west to northwesterly flow across the UK, with the wettest conditions in the north and west. The signal for higher pressure to be towards the far southwest may lead to possibly drier and slightly warmer conditions at times here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Monday, July 29, 2019 1:16:03 PM
Greater certainty of a low pressure dominated month from the Met Office but with quite a difference between the first and second halves of the month if the above forecast verifies
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Gavin D
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 7:53:42 AM

Met office CPF 

July update

August to October

Temperature summary

For August and August-September-October as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for August-September-October will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-aso-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For August, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. For August-September-October as a whole, the chances of aboveand below-average precipitation are similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for August-September-October will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-aso-v1.pdf

Russwirral
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 9:45:30 AM

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Snow and hail in Yorkshire...in July

Snow has been reported as falling in Yorkshire - in the same week as the hottest July day ever recorded. Regulars at the Tan Inn watched as the white stuff began falling in North Yorkshire. The snow and hail flurries were captured from the CCTV at the pub near Richmond.

This week, the UK basked in temperatures in the 30s, which caused major disruption to transport links.

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2019-07-27/snow-and-hail-in-yorkshire-in-july/

 

I never understand is everyone goes nuts when they see hail in the summer... but its really common.  expecially when thunderstorms are concerned. 


Gavin D
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 11:56:05 AM

Sunday 4 Aug - Tuesday 13 Aug

On Sunday early outbreaks of rain in the west will turn more showery and spread erratically eastwards through the day, with some heavy and thundery showers by the afternoon. Breezy in the west, with temperatures generally near normal. Through the following week, low pressure is likely to be located just to the west of the UK. This would bring west to southwesterly winds across the majority of the UK, but with the potential for a south to southeasterly flow across the far north of the country. This pattern would bring occasional spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, into western parts, with daytime showers breaking out more generally elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly be above average, with warm or very warm conditions possible across the south.

Wednesday 14 Aug - Wednesday 28 Aug

Although confidence is low throughout this period, the middle of August will probably start with unsettled conditions, with low pressure likely to be centred just to the west of the UK. This pattern would bring a predominately south to southwesterly airflow, which as well as bringing periods of showers or longer spells of rain, would generally lead to above average temperatures. Into the second half of August, low pressure will probably move to lie the northeast of the UK, with perhaps higher pressure towards the southwest of the country. This pattern would lead to a cooler and showery west to northwesterly flow, with the wettest conditions in the north and west, although the far southwest may have some drier and slightly warmer weather at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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