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Offline Rob K  
#141 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:44:21(UTC)
Rob K

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Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,906
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Such a shame Gravesend is no longer running, it would be in prime position this week and I reckon would maybe see 39C. ICON has the highest temps around Cambridge, though ,showing 37C there.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#142 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:47:44(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
Such a shame Gravesend is no longer running, it would be in prime position this week and I reckon would maybe see 39C. ICON has the highest temps around Cambridge, though ,showing 37C there.

Does the metoffice have a full list of their official sites?

Mark

Beckton, SE London

Offline Whether Idle  
#143 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:48:07(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
Such a shame Gravesend is no longer running, it would be in prime position this week and I reckon would maybe see 39C. ICON has the highest temps around Cambridge, though ,showing 37C there.

Brogdale (current record holder) is the one to watch.

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
Offline doctormog  
#144 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:51:45(UTC)
doctormog

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Someone should start a heatwave thread...

Offline TimS  
#145 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:52:49(UTC)
TimS

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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

Brogdale (current record holder) is the one to watch.

Brogdale (Faversham) got the prize last year too - 35.3C on 26th July. The most remarkable thing about that is it got the minimum for the year too, -14.2C on the 28th Feb.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline doctormog  
#146 Posted : 22 July 2019 08:01:41(UTC)
doctormog

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The GEFS charts (both t850hPa and t2m) paint a very warm picture consistently for the working week “breaking down” to a a much more average picture by the weekend. I would also expect some storm potential at times during the week.
Offline Rob K  
#147 Posted : 22 July 2019 08:05:24(UTC)
Rob K

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Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

 

Does the metoffice have a full list of their official sites?

 

Map here but it's a but out of date as it still shows Gravesend. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Whether Idle  
#148 Posted : 22 July 2019 08:11:24(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post

 

Brogdale (Faversham) got the prize last year too - 35.3C on 26th July. The most remarkable thing about that is it got the minimum for the year too, -14.2C on the 28th Feb.

Its the "continental touch" as my Dad aptly put it to me once.  Kent can get a taste of that climate, IF the conditions are perfect.  

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
Offline Rob K  
#149 Posted : 22 July 2019 08:15:55(UTC)
Rob K

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Location: Northeast Hampshire

The 03Z run of the UKV model is showing 39C for London (chart posted at NW: https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_07/39c.png )

 

Edited by user 22 July 2019 08:33:47(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Online Chunky Pea  
#150 Posted : 22 July 2019 09:03:43(UTC)
Chunky Pea

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Ireland
Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl

2m temp anomaly forecast for between days 10 and 15 (EC mean). It is very notable how the eastern half of Europe is refusing to warm up to any significant degree so far this summer, and this trend looks likely to continue for a while yet.

"There are nights when the wolves fall silent and only the moon howls"

--George Carlin.

Offline Saint Snow  
#151 Posted : 22 July 2019 10:00:00(UTC)
Saint Snow

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ECM better than GFS for the 'beyond the brief heatwave' period, although neither are exactly settled for the majority of the country.

 

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline moomin75  
#152 Posted : 22 July 2019 10:14:52(UTC)
moomin75

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With the intense continental heat never far away from the south, I would not be at all surprised if we had another crack at 40c in early to mid August too. This summer is turning into a pretty exceptional one again.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline TimS  
#153 Posted : 22 July 2019 12:01:45(UTC)
TimS

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Location: Brockley

06z GFS and GEFS showing a bit more heat and potential reloads lingering into next week. Interesting to see we still have quite a lot of spread beyond Thursday - just shows what an intense low does to model predictability.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline RobN  
#154 Posted : 22 July 2019 12:47:01(UTC)
RobN

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Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
06z GFS and GEFS showing a bit more heat and potential reloads lingering into next week. Interesting to see we still have quite a lot of spread beyond Thursday - just shows what an intense low does to model predictability.

Indeed the 06Z Ens introduce quite a bit more scatter after Thursday and the members which take the 850s below 5C in the immediate aftermath of the cold front have evaporated.

Rob

Sometimes a few miles north of Cambridge on a hill in the flatlands of East Anglia 15m ASL

Other times in south east Gloucestershire near the River Thames 75m ASL.

Offline TimS  
#155 Posted : 22 July 2019 14:27:37(UTC)
TimS

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Location: Brockley

All models showing it being quite cloudy on Thursday across the whole country, which if the temperatures are correct is going to make for a very strange, stuffy kind of day. High cloud, not low stuff, but at best it looks very hazy. Projected sunshine around 6 hours out of available 16.

Tomorrow is the sunniest day of the week by a long way.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline LeedsLad123  
#156 Posted : 22 July 2019 14:33:03(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
All models showing it being quite cloudy on Thursday across the whole country, which if the temperatures are correct is going to make for a very strange, stuffy kind of day. High cloud, not low stuff, but at best it looks very hazy. Projected sunshine around 6 hours out of available 16.

Tomorrow is the sunniest day of the week by a long way.

I remember 1 July 2015 being quite cloudy - indeed we even had some very large raindrops in the afternoon and the temperature fell no lower than 28C. Very strange experience.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#157 Posted : 22 July 2019 15:43:20(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

12z ICON still has 18c - 20c 850s on Saturday afternoon in EA and SE. 

 Heat eventually goes Monday morning. 

 

Edited by user 22 July 2019 15:44:56(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline eddied  
#158 Posted : 22 July 2019 16:37:47(UTC)
eddied

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Location: Reigate, Surrey - 105m ASL

Seems as if the hi-res models are nudging the plume westwards again a bit more on Thursday, which also translates into the heat hanging about a bit more on Friday. If correct, looking at Arpege, we could see temperatures over 32C as far west as the Welsh borders, and as far north as Liverpool, with temps over 35C quite generously shared up through the midlands - so not just a south east event.

The 37C hotspot keeps shifting round from run to run, but still feels to me like the likely peak heat. Certainly hot enough!

 

Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Summer max so far: 28C on June 23rd

Offline TimS  
#159 Posted : 22 July 2019 17:28:15(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,801
Location: Brockley

Well, GEFS set are very interesting indeed. Some prolongation going on - and the op is a cool outlier even on Thursday. P04 gives us a globally warmed version of June-July 1976.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline moomin75  
#160 Posted : 22 July 2019 17:38:34(UTC)
moomin75

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Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,316

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

This is a really interesting set of Ensembles on the 12z. The cool down after Thursday is far less pronounced and temperatures stay above average, quite appreciably so.

Edited by user 22 July 2019 17:50:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

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