And since Xmas with exceptions to the easterlies or north easterlies they have been right. As we have now made it to mid January it clearly is cold and there is the risk of snow for some, and as we head out towards the end of the month it looks likely to remain cold with the risk of snow for some. For us in the South it just looks like being a mix of cold frosty days and milder wet spells.

They have never said it will only that its an increased likelihood.

I would dispute that. We've had a couple of cold days but it's not exactly cold today, at 6.5C, and the coming week looks rather average, not cold, with highs in London typically 6-9C. Only Wednesday, with a forecast max of 4C, is looking cold.

Whatever gloss you want to put on it, the long-rangers from the Met Office have been woeful this winter.

 

So far the only part of the UK that seems to have been slightly below average temperature is.... Pompey  Or maybe Southampton.

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg

 

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And the "Stopped Clock Award" for 2019 goes to.....

Very entertaining read! 

It looks as if UK Met bases its long range forecasts, at least in part, on the ECM longer range ENs. And these have proved to be woefully useless this winter, as I am sure they have at any other given time. 

The head of our own Met Eireann over here, Gerry Fleming, publicly declared at a press conference 3 or 4 years back that the ECMWF and other longer range models are useless beyond the 10 day to 2 weeks period, and looking at anything beyond this time frame is a pointless exercise, especially for this particularly region of the planet,  and he wasn't wrong!

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Saturday, Sunday, Monday & Thursday? - They could do with making sure they have the right day before publishing their forecast!!!

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

 

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I would dispute that. We've had a couple of cold days but it's not exactly cold today, at 6.5C, and the coming week looks rather average, not cold, with highs in London typically 6-9C. Only Wednesday, with a forecast max of 4C, is looking cold.

Whatever gloss you want to put on it, the long-rangers from the Met Office have been woeful this winter.

 

So far the only part of the UK that seems to have been slightly below average temperature is.... Pompey  Or maybe Southampton.

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg

 

But thats London for you, meanwhile highs between 4-6C down here on the balmy the south coast, until friday when  it warms again. To have a day max of 4C down here is around 5C below average and there for calling it cold then average is a fair statement I believe.

 

But thats London for you, meanwhile highs between 4-6C down here on the balmy the south coast, until friday when  it warms again. To have a day max of 4C down here is around 5C below average and there for calling it cold then average is a fair statement I believe.

Yes but the long-rangers haven't been talking about a cold day arriving, they've been talking about cold weather arriving, and many updates have then suggested that it would be prolonged, "for the duration of the period" etc. By the end of this week it will be back to double figures or very close on the south coast.

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Yes but the long-rangers haven't been talking about a cold day arriving, they've been talking about cold weather arriving, and many updates have then suggested that it would be prolonged, "for the duration of the period" etc. By the end of this week it will be back to double figures or very close on the south coast.

But this is not one day it's looking likely 5 days before a milder blip then cold again... I don't recall the term prolonged being used either by the met in their forecasts. They did however mention a risk of briefer milder spells, especially in the South.

I think this is just a case of people's expectations distorting what's being said.

 

 

But this is not one day it's looking likely 5 days before a milder blip then cold again... I don't recall the term prolonged being used either by the met in their forecasts. They did however mention a risk of briefer milder spells, especially in the South.

I think this is just a case of people's expectations distorting what's being said.

I suspect most of us are more snow lovers than cold lovers. Cold for the sake of cold isn’t particularly interesting imo.

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I suspect most of us are more snow lovers than cold lovers. Cold for the sake of cold isn’t particularly interesting imo.

I'd rather have freezing and dry/clear than cold ,grey damp, murk!

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But this is not one day it's looking likely 5 days before a milder blip then cold again... I don't recall the term prolonged being used either by the met in their forecasts. They did however mention a risk of briefer milder spells, especially in the South.

I think this is just a case of people's expectations distorting what's being said.

 

They said "with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period", which is basically the same thing.

The point I was making was that the cold was originally supposed to arrive at the beginning of January (or maybe late December). Then it was "further into January", then it was "by mid-month", then it was "the third week of January", then "towards the end of January", and now it's February. By which I mean the sustained period of colder weather they have been banging on about for about six weeks, not a few coolish grey days (the coldest day this week is set to be Wednesday, with a max of 4C).

 

Face it, they have continually been expecting colder weather to take hold, and the real world has consistently refused to play ball with whatever background signals they have been using. According to the January 7 ECM monthly maps we should now be in the second week of -3C temperature anomalies across the country!

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I'd rather have freezing and dry/clear than cold ,grey damp, murk!

Certainly, and I appreciate cold, frosty, sunny conditions, but understandably dry, slightly colder than average conditions don’t excite many people. 

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They said "with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period", which is basically the same thing.

The point I was making was that the cold was originally supposed to arrive at the beginning of January (or maybe late December). Then it was "further into January", then it was "by mid-month", then it was "the third week of January", then "towards the end of January", and now it's February. By which I mean the sustained period of colder weather they have been banging on about for about six weeks, not a few coolish grey days (the coldest day this week is set to be Wednesday, with a max of 4C).

 

Face it, they have continually been expecting colder weather to take hold, and the real world has consistently refused to play ball with whatever background signals they have been using. According to the January 7 ECM monthly maps we should now be in the second week of -3C temperature anomalies across the country!

I see where you are coming from Rob. That said, the MetO to be fair have not been not far off the mark with their thoughts from New Year's Eve when they predicted it turning colder in the third week/middle of January. Our last notably mild day here (by which I mean our last day with double-digit temperatures) was last Tuesday and from Wednesday onwards it has been notable colder in my area than it had been since before Christmas. So I would summise that since the middle of last week, it has turned generally colder than it was previously, even though it has not produced a major freeze and it will have been colder in some places than it others. Therefore to a degree, the MetO were correct in what they said at the end of December.

I understand that originally, they were expecting the cold to come early in January or possibly late December (although there was only ever an outside chance of the latter). It all seemed to depend on how long the area of HP that was either over or just to the south of the UK from around Christmas until the early part of last week hung around for. Since the middle of last week, it has retreated towards the Azores and this has allowed the more changeable N/NW pattern we now have to move in.

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I think we will see the 'very cold' being dropped from the METO outlook in the coming days, you only get so many bites of the cherry and the Euro trough won't be there forever.

 

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I think we will see the 'very cold' being dropped from the METO outlook in the coming days, you only get so many bites of the cherry and the Euro trough won't be there forever.

 

If you say it on a daily basis you will be right sometime.

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If you say it on a daily basis you will be right sometime.

You could say the same about the METO - since late November and we are still waiting. It's now MID February for the 'very cold'.

 

 

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You could say the same about the METO - since late November and we are still waiting. It's now MID February for the 'very cold'.

 

 

yes it could be another faux-pas equivalent to the “BBQ Summer “ escapade of a few years ago. 

Into next week

Rather cold
Widespread frosts
Chance of rain and snow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46954592

 

You could say the same about the METO - since late November and we are still waiting. It's now MID February for the 'very cold'.

 

 

Quite right. No doubt a few of the usual suspects will get a 2cm covering this week and the media will be duly dispatched to the Peak District or somewhere to take photos for all the ARCTIC BRITAIN front-page splashes.

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Now to contrast! - weather for the week ahead by Alex Deakin - Notice the showers for Tuesday seem more widespread than on BBC weather for the week ahead graphics!?

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Met office morning forecast show the snow/wintry showers more extensive anf widespread than on the BBC graphics:

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Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 5 Feb 2019:

Sunday will be cold with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. The showers will arrive on a strong northerly wind, which will ease as the day progresses, and bring some snowfall over exposed northern hills. The snow may reach lower levels later in the day, especially across the northern half of the UK. Thereafter, the final few days of January and early February are likely to remain rather unsettled with brisk winds, outbreaks of rain and hill snow, as well as some showery interludes in between. It will remain cold for most with widespread overnight frosts as well as the risk of ice. Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 20 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frosts. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder spells, and these will bring a risk of some significant snow, but only if very cold air becomes established across much of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast