1992 is also a good example of how the CET can collapse after a warm first week. As I note above 1992 has the record for the warmest first 8 days of January with a CET of 8.83C.

The mean CET for the the 9th - 31st Jan 1992 was 1.9C leaving the month as a whole at 3.7C which is 0.5C below average. I wonder if we will see something similar this year.

3.5c please

 

I see you made two separate predictions within the space of three hours. I will take the most recent one for the competition.

Here is the table of predictions for January. We have 72 in total. In the spirit of the New Year I have allowed the two predictions made on the morning of the 3rd (but with an extra day of penalty so a total of 0.6C for these predictions). Solar Cycles' prediction on the 5th is too late to count I'm afraid.

Thanks GW.

Its going to be fun watching it collapse.

Fascinating.

January 1950 is a good example of an exceptionally mild first half followed by a very cold second half January 1950 CET: 4.2 First half: 7.9 Second half 0.8 First half mean max: 10.4 Second half mean max: 2.9 First half mean min: 5.3 Second half mean min: -1.4 CET Trackometer 1. 6.0 2. 6.3 3. 7.4 4. 7.8 5. 7.9 6. 7.6 7. 7.7 8. 7.8 9. 7.8 10. 7.9 11. 8.1 12. 8.0 13. 7.9 14. 7.9 15. 7.9 16. 7.7 17. 7.6 18. 7.3 19. 6.9 20. 6.6 21. 6.3 22. 6.1 23. 5.9 24. 5.6 25. 5.4 26. 5.1 27. 4.9 28. 4.7 29. 4.4 30. 4.3 31. 4.2

 

Cheers Kevin - Thanks for those stats there.

Kev/Global warming how unusual is it to have a very cold spell in the 3rd week of Jan,what years have got the records?

A quick look at the cet records appears to show its not that common since "63" with 1966 and 2001 the only years with most of the week below zero cet and 1985 and 1987 the back end of a cold spell in the 2nd week.So it seems quite rare for cold 3rd weeks of Jan.

The first 6 days have come in at 7.7C (a notable 4.4C above average).

Looks like we are looking down from the top of a slide though!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Kev/Global warming how unusual is it to have a very cold spell in the 3rd week of Jan,what years have got the records?

A quick look at the cet records appears to show its not that common since "63" with 1966 and 2001 the only years with most of the week below zero cet and 1985 and 1987 the back end of a cold spell in the 2nd week.So it seems quite rare for cold 3rd weeks of Jan.

Not that unusual. Since 1925 there have been 11 years where the CET mean for 15th-21st Jan was negative

1926, 1936, 1940, 1941, 1946, 1955, 1963, 1966, 1985, 1987, 2001

Coldest was 1940 with -4.27C

Coldest ever was 1881 with -6.44C

8.25c here up 4.3c on 2012

Mean min 6.7c up 6.3c on 2012

Mean max 9.5c up 2.4c on 2012

Last frost was on December 14th !

Kev/Global warming how unusual is it to have a very cold spell in the 3rd week of Jan,what years have got the records?

A quick look at the cet records appears to show its not that common since "63" with 1966 and 2001 the only years with most of the week below zero cet and 1985 and 1987 the back end of a cold spell in the 2nd week.So it seems quite rare for cold 3rd weeks of Jan.

Not that unusual. Since 1925 there have been 11 years where the CET mean for 15th-21st Jan was negative

1926, 1936, 1940, 1941, 1946, 1955, 1963, 1966, 1985, 1987, 2001

Coldest was 1940 with -4.27C

Coldest ever was 1881 with -6.44C

Looks like we're about due another one.

Kev/Global warming how unusual is it to have a very cold spell in the 3rd week of Jan,what years have got the records?

A quick look at the cet records appears to show its not that common since "63" with 1966 and 2001 the only years with most of the week below zero cet and 1985 and 1987 the back end of a cold spell in the 2nd week.So it seems quite rare for cold 3rd weeks of Jan.

Not that unusual. Since 1925 there have been 11 years where the CET mean for 15th-21st Jan was negative

1926, 1936, 1940, 1941, 1946, 1955, 1963, 1966, 1985, 1987, 2001

Coldest was 1940 with -4.27C

Coldest ever was 1881 with -6.44C

Yes suprising when its broken down properly (had a quick look at each week of jan back to 1900) very few cold "weeks" prior to the 1940's and the 3rd week does seem to have the most cold weeks (my years might need clarifiying)

1st to 7th negative 1908,1941,1963,1970,1971,1979,1997,2009,2010

8th to 14th negative 1940,1959,1963,1968,1982,1985,1987,2010

22nd to 28th negative 1907,1909,1917,1933,1940,1945,1947,1950,1952,1954,1963,1979,1996

The first 6 days have come in at 7.7C (a notable 4.4C above average).

Looks like we are looking down from the top of a slide though!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

The first 9 days are very similar: 7.6C (4C above average)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

The drop is gaining pace;

6.6;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

The drop is gaining pace;

6.6;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Using 4.4 as the Janary and the latest Hadley, it is 2.2 above monthly average.To get back to normal, I calculate that the  CET for the rest of the month must be 1.1c below average ie around 3.3C

A final value in the 1s is possible if it is cold enough. However, sub-1c is very unlikely unless it really is very cold

Here is the latest update. My CET estimate is very closely tracking Hadley this month. Up to the 12th Hadley is at 6.25C and I am at 6.21C.

The below average conditions look set to continue for the foreseeable future. This morning's runs are somewhat colder than yesterday and there is bound to be considerable movement from run to run given that the current situation is difficult for the models to get a real grip on.

Currently the CET is expected to fall to 3.34C by the 26th. So a finishing number somewhere around 3C looks likely at the moment. Long way to go though.

A final value in the 1s is possible if it is cold enough.

I reckon the last week of the month would have to average below 0C to deliver a CET that low.