The Weather Outlook

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Gavin P
19 September 2011 08:22:27

WSI going for a cold end to the year;

http://www.wsieurope.com/4010a794-a7f6-4110-bb24-1fa9dfeb71f0/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

They are having a winter forecast presentation on October 13th which sounds quite interesting if anyone in or around London fancies going.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 September 2011 09:36:31

WSI going for a cold end to the year;

http://www.wsieurope.com/4010a794-a7f6-4110-bb24-1fa9dfeb71f0/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

They are having a winter forecast presentation on October 13th which sounds quite interesting if anyone in or around London fancies going.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

They forecast Nothern blocking and Negative NAO for October-December.Not sure that the  NOAA CFS models for this period are suggesting nothern blocking?

edodfc
19 September 2011 10:12:50

Overall, I'm really not optimistic about us getting a decent winter this year. Gut feeling is that it will be quite dismal with temps somewhere between average and slightly-above-average, and any cold spell disappointingly short-lived.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Me too, not sure why! Hopefully I'll be surprised..

After all, there's nothing scientific in my thoughts, just gut instinct.

Originally Posted by: edodfc 

 

Probably because we were so spoiled last year Joe it is human nature to think it could not be as good/bad again depending on your preference. Then again I did not think it could be as bad as january 2010 in winter 10/11 and I was proved wrong. Are you no longer in Edinburgh at all now?? I hope you will still be forecasting for the east of Scotland  or there is a lot of pessure on JoeSchmoe and michael

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Nope, no longer in Edinburgh I'm afraid! I've moved back to Manchester, which is even more snowless than Edinburgh. Right in the middle of the city centre too, might as well rename it Mildsville.

In all seriousness, I'll be joining Harold, Saint Snow, Muckyme etc, and praying for deep cold, Arctic WNW'lies, think Dec 2009/Jan 2010!

I'll definitely be keeping an eye out for those snow laden easterlies though.

Looking at the latest charts, we're still in the regime of northern blocking, even if it's just temporary bouts of it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn241.png - edit, can't seem to post the link, apologies.

Long may it continue. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

cheers Joe im sure you will have plenty UNI friends to come up and stay with should we be be laden with riches again and you are struggling. City Centre  bad choice.... I actually sadly considered factors such as this when choosing my houses. CIty Centre always a big no no...... anyway I look forward to your thoughts in the coming winter and hope you are as accurate as last year.

Hendon Snowman
19 September 2011 10:18:37

A winter like 91/92 certainly seems to be a risk based on the pressure anomalies we're seeing here.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Personally I would be happy if we had a winter like 91/92, but it is extremely unlikely IMO. Some reasons:

1) Recent patterns over the UK have been very different to 1991 which had a very dry August in England followed by anticyclonic conditions during the first half of September

2) The unusual hemispheric pattern in winter 91/92 was partly caused by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

3) Solar state is very different

I think 2008 is quite a good analogue - ie perhaps we will get something similar to winter 08/09.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

Yes it made many cities in the Middle East getting record very low maxes, I remember Riyadh was 6C, Kuwait 7C, Mecca and Jeddah which normally the warmest place in winter got only 14C, 5C in Cairo and 7C in Luxor, subzero temps inland in Palestine, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon and 2C in Nicosia, Cyprus.  It was also cold in Europe only UK was left out.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 

Yes I rember very well I was on a family trip in Jerusalem, Israel and there was crazy snow which lasted for several days and the best bit was it started as heavy rain for several hours before, and then in the late afternoon weather warnings were on the CNN, and like magic it turned to heavy snow and it snowed the whole night, stunning event it was.

Twister
19 September 2011 19:07:48

Netweather are forecasting a colder than average October, November and December with a trend towards northern blocking as winter approaches.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)

Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39

Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

nickl
19 September 2011 19:14:08

Netweather are forecasting a colder than average October, November and December with a trend towards northern blocking as winter approaches.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Originally Posted by: Twister 

just an interpretation of the raw CFS model output. 

moomin75
19 September 2011 19:50:39

Netweather are forecasting a colder than average October, November and December with a trend towards northern blocking as winter approaches.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Originally Posted by: Twister 

Hmmm....the very same Netweather who forecasted "Shades of 76" this summer.....

Pinch of salt is the buzz word IMO!

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Gavin D
19 September 2011 20:22:19

These are the latest predictions from Positive Weather Solutions

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System, as the usual formula for seasonal forecasting is not being used because of the lack of current 2011 data which is incorporated into the equation nearer the season. 

December 2011

UK

North-East/ South-West Split losing shape.  Cold with a limited threat of snow to the north and east.  Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, possible temporary snow on higher ground.  Average temperatures.

White Christmas:  33%

Eire

Some wintry conditions but generally a sleety mix at lower levels, some temporary snow possible at higher levels.  Average temperatures.

January 2012

UK

North-East/South-West Split in place.  Cold with threat of snow to the north and east.  Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, snow on higher ground.  South East showing a potentially dry month.  Average temperatures.

Eire

An increased threat of snow but chiefly confined to higher levels.  Average temperatures.

February 2012

UK

North and East holding on to the cold with the threat of further snow, possibly quite noticeable in accumulation.  South and West seeing limited wintry conditions.  Average temperatures.

Eire

Threat from snow early on, but generally a rain sleet mix at all levels.  Average temperatures.

March 2012

UK

Winter shows little sign of holding any ground anywhere.  Drier than average.

Eire

Wetter than average, temperatures on the average or slightly above.

Serena Skye

Contributing Weather Forecaster

Tuesday September 20th 2011

 

 

 

Stormchaser
19 September 2011 20:56:56

So PWS is actually predicting a very boring winter at this stage?

Good thing there is a 'lack of current 2011 data'. Boring, near average conditions have been around a lot this summer. Autumn has been a fair bit more interesting so far I must admit; September is currently far drier than average and also somewhat warmer than average.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Matty H
19 September 2011 21:00:48
Netweather's summer forecast was the worst LRG of all time. It's like someone asked them to predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen 😂
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

moomin75
19 September 2011 21:20:51

Netweather's summer forecast was the worst LRG of all time. It's like someone asked them to predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen 😂

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

That is absolutely 100% what I was thinking.....It must go down in history as the worst LRG of all time....They didn't just get it partly wrong, they got it totally, hopelessly, ridiculously, 100% wrong.....in every way.

It just goes to prove what you've said all along, they are all LRG's really....not really LRF's....

(That won't stop me still having a crack at one this winter!!)....but after the disaster of their summer LRG, I'd be stunned if anyone EVER took anything they said seriously in the future!

 

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Essan
19 September 2011 21:21:00

These are the latest predictions from Positive Weather Solutions

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System

 

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

In other words, they're as valid as the thoughts of Mrs Grumblethorpe from no. 8 with the gammy leg, the funny eye and the dog that yaps a lot.

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

LeedsLad123
19 September 2011 22:05:46

Netweather's summer forecast was the worst LRG of all time. It's like someone asked them to predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen 😂

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

That is absolutely 100% what I was thinking.....It must go down in history as the worst LRG of all time....They didn't just get it partly wrong, they got it totally, hopelessly, ridiculously, 100% wrong.....in every way.

It just goes to prove what you've said all along, they are all LRG's really....not really LRF's....

(That won't stop me still having a crack at one this winter!!)....but after the disaster of their summer LRG, I'd be stunned if anyone EVER took anything they said seriously in the future!

 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Well it is all guess work, so if they were right it would have only been pure luck and nothing scientific. As you and Matty said, it's long range guessing rather than forecasting.

 

I still get the feeling people will believe whatever forecast takes their fancy though.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
John S2
19 September 2011 23:26:39

I still get the feeling people will believe whatever forecast takes their fancy though.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

The LRFs that I take seriously are the ones where (a) the factors taken into account are listed and (b) the reasoning is believable. For me, the Netweather summer forecast was not believable at the time as some important factors appeared not to have been considered at all. It must be said, however, that their forecast for last winter was pretty good. 

nickl
20 September 2011 06:32:37

Netweather's summer forecast was the worst LRG of all time. It's like someone asked them to predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen 😂

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

That is absolutely 100% what I was thinking.....It must go down in history as the worst LRG of all time....They didn't just get it partly wrong, they got it totally, hopelessly, ridiculously, 100% wrong.....in every way.

It just goes to prove what you've said all along, they are all LRG's really....not really LRF's....

(That won't stop me still having a crack at one this winter!!)....but after the disaster of their summer LRG, I'd be stunned if anyone EVER took anything they said seriously in the future!

 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

given how accurate their winter 2010/11 forecast was, i will be.  how can one dismiss a reasoned forecast based on climate signals etc because a previous forecast was bust?  would be a very odd stance to take by people who understand the nature of our atmosphere.  the average 'joe' in the street - understandable.

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 September 2011 07:18:13

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Latest CFS European  3 month  seasonal means showing N/D/J and D/J/F below average probability.Confusingly however the UK is shown as adove average or neutral on the individual monthly probabilities.Any explanations?

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
20 September 2011 07:41:50

So PWS is actually predicting a very boring winter at this stage?

Good thing there is a 'lack of current 2011 data'. Boring, near average conditions have been around a lot this summer. Autumn has been a fair bit more interesting so far I must admit; September is currently far drier than average and also somewhat warmer than average.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 

At a guess, their forecast looks like it might be based on the predicted upper atmosphere from the CFS model, but IMO it's is massively over-estimating the la nina conditions - if you look at the current uncorrected forecast now, it has a peak below -2.5 in region 3.4.  I can't see this coming closed based on the current sub surface temperatures.  

 

Reigate, home of the North Downs

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
20 September 2011 07:53:30

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/La_Nina_Reprise_Implications_on_Upcoming_Winter_Globally.pdf

Latest thoughts from Joe ******i and  Joe D’Aleo are that the first half of winter in Western Europe will be cold.  He also speculates that the AMO will switch negative during the course of the winter (probably temporary for the moment).  

I won't mention any more since he touches on the climate debate and there's another forum for that discussion.

Reigate, home of the North Downs

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
20 September 2011 07:55:45

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Latest CFS European  3 month  seasonal means showing N/D/J and D/J/F below average probability.Confusingly however the UK is shown as adove average or neutral on the individual monthly probabilities.Any explanations?

Originally Posted by: roger63 

I don't trust it at the moment based on its current enso forecast, which uncorrected is quite extreme.  It may end up being correct, but I doubt it.

Reigate, home of the North Downs

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
20 September 2011 08:00:00

Netweather's summer forecast was the worst LRG of all time. It's like someone asked them to predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen 😂

Originally Posted by: nickl 

That is absolutely 100% what I was thinking.....It must go down in history as the worst LRG of all time....They didn't just get it partly wrong, they got it totally, hopelessly, ridiculously, 100% wrong.....in every way.

It just goes to prove what you've said all along, they are all LRG's really....not really LRF's....

(That won't stop me still having a crack at one this winter!!)....but after the disaster of their summer LRG, I'd be stunned if anyone EVER took anything they said seriously in the future!

 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

given how accurate their winter 2010/11 forecast was, i will be.  how can one dismiss a reasoned forecast based on climate signals etc because a previous forecast was bust?  would be a very odd stance to take by people who understand the nature of our atmosphere.  the average 'joe' in the street - understandable.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Has Stewart discussed where he thinks it went wrong by the way Nick? I suspect the re-development of la nina conditions might have been part of the problem.  I agree with you by the way, I pay a lot of credence to his thoughts as they're normally not too far away and are based on sound logic.

Reigate, home of the North Downs

mikeyo
20 September 2011 09:10:31

Personally, what I'm hoping for is a similar battle ground scenario as per 2009/2010 winter where low pressure atlantic systems from the south/west charge in to high pressure blocking patterns to the North and being based in the 'middle' of the country this normally leads to a snow fest!

Also, Paul Hudson made a good point last winter outlining the reasons for the wave of snow that hit most parts of yorkshire and linconshire during the first few days in december, blaming it on a 'warm' North Sea and cold North Easterlies picking up moisture and dumping it on UK mainland. Really hoping for a similar  set up this year. Roll on Winter, summer didn't even arrive.

tallyho_83
20 September 2011 15:43:48

These are the latest predictions from Positive Weather Solutions

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System, as the usual formula for seasonal forecasting is not being used because of the lack of current 2011 data which is incorporated into the equation nearer the season. 

December 2011

UK

North-East/ South-West Split losing shape.  Cold with a limited threat of snow to the north and east.  Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, possible temporary snow on higher ground.  Average temperatures.

White Christmas:  33%

Eire

Some wintry conditions but generally a sleety mix at lower levels, some temporary snow possible at higher levels.  Average temperatures.

January 2012

UK

North-East/South-West Split in place.  Cold with threat of snow to the north and east.  Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, snow on higher ground.  South East showing a potentially dry month.  Average temperatures.

Eire

An increased threat of snow but chiefly confined to higher levels.  Average temperatures.

February 2012

UK

North and East holding on to the cold with the threat of further snow, possibly quite noticeable in accumulation.  South and West seeing limited wintry conditions.  Average temperatures.

Eire

Threat from snow early on, but generally a rain sleet mix at all levels.  Average temperatures.

March 2012

UK

Winter shows little sign of holding any ground anywhere.  Drier than average.

Eire

Wetter than average, temperatures on the average or slightly above.

Serena Skye

Contributing Weather Forecaster

Tuesday September 20th 2011

 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Rubbish!! They are just stating the obvious "Snow over higher ground in the north" and "Milder to the south and west" etc - I will take that as a foot of salt, it's too vague anyway! Also January's forecast is identical to December's forecast.

Also how come they never mentioned frost or fog!? - I would not even pay any attention to that, it is purely a guessing game based on historic data.

Sorry to be blunt but  - anyone can tell you it will be milder to the south and west anyway.

 

 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

CAPE-steve
20 September 2011 15:47:27
I agree. When you look at it it appears to be a sensible forecast, nothing too extreme, but like you say, it's very basic and anyone could write that, even a premiership footballer!

Matty H
20 September 2011 17:18:58
For the umpteenth millionth time NO CHARTS IN POSTS ONLY LINKS. I/We are thoroughly fed up with editing posts. From now on they will just be deleted. Thanks.
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Gavin D
20 September 2011 18:35:06

Some very interesting charts here from the met office website

All the charts cover December to February

2 m temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20110901/3up_20110901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20110901/3up_20110901_prec_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20110901/3up_20110901_mslp_months46_europe_prob_public.png

 

Sea surface temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20110901/3up_20110901_sst_months46_europe_prob_public.png

 

 

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