The Weather Outlook

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Charmhills
22 September 2011 10:20:38

You mean charts like this Joe?

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

Yes.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

LOL- just as we mention the lack of northern blocking ECM goes on overload!  Looking like this morning (if ECM veriifies) to be potentially the longest spell country wide of sustained warmth / fine weather since Easter.  If Joe's theory is right that bodes well for the coming Winter.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

In other words a late taste of summer before an early winter blast in November! You wouldn't bet against it at this stage would you.

I think another colder than normal winter seems likely now IMO.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

the converted
22 September 2011 20:02:11

You mean charts like this Joe?

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Yes.

Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

5 weeks next Sunday British Winter times arrives

LOL- just as we mention the lack of northern blocking ECM goes on overload!  Looking like this morning (if ECM veriifies) to be potentially the longest spell country wide of sustained warmth / fine weather since Easter.  If Joe's theory is right that bodes well for the coming Winter.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

In other words a late taste of summer before an early winter blast in November! You wouldn't bet against it at this stage would you.

I think another colder than normal winter seems likely now IMO.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

mikeyo
24 September 2011 14:43:39

All this talk of winter and northern blocking and we're going to get temps as high as 27 in the south next week, lol.

In all seriousness, PH reckons the last time this warmth hit us in Sept/Oct was 1995 and 2006. Looking at the winters for those years would send all coldies back to looking at spring/summer charts and skip winter altogther....

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 September 2011 15:03:12

All this talk of winter and northern blocking and we're going to get temps as high as 27 in the south next week, lol.

In all seriousness, PH reckons the last time this warmth hit us in Sept/Oct was 1995 and 2006. Looking at the winters for those years would send all coldies back to looking at spring/summer charts and skip winter altogther....

Originally Posted by: mikeyo 

Well 95/96 was a below average winter- CET Dec 2.3C,Jan 4.3C,Feb 2.5 overall 3.0 c just under 1C below average

doctormog
24 September 2011 15:19:01

All this talk of winter and northern blocking and we're going to get temps as high as 27 in the south next week, lol.

In all seriousness, PH reckons the last time this warmth hit us in Sept/Oct was 1995 and 2006. Looking at the winters for those years would send all coldies back to looking at spring/summer charts and skip winter altogther....

Originally Posted by: mikeyo 

Yes after the last couple of winters many would not want a repeat of the record equalling cold of Dec 1995. As for talk of winter rather than the heat next week - check the thread title 😉

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

nsrobins
24 September 2011 17:07:43

Positive Weather Solutions continue to edge slowly towards things been mild in places this winter, different to what they said in the papers earlier in the week..........

 

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Brilliant news for those wanting a cold winter then

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

sunnyhighpressure
24 September 2011 17:09:27

Positive Weather Solutions continue to edge slowly towards things been mild in places this winter, different to what they said in the papers earlier in the week..........

 

 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Brilliant news for those wanting a cold winter then

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

They went from record breaking cold, to colder than average and now to average. Who still reads their tosh and believes or caresa about the current forecast?

Robertski
24 September 2011 17:29:06

Positive Weather Solutions continue to edge slowly towards things been mild in places this winter, different to what they said in the papers earlier in the week..........

 

 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Brilliant news for those wanting a cold winter then

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 Seriously, any long range forecast should be taken with a pinch of salt. Although I think that the developing La Nina may increase the chances of a less cold winter. 

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
24 September 2011 20:03:45

Positive Weather Solutions continue to edge slowly towards things been mild in places this winter, different to what they said in the papers earlier in the week..........

 

 

Originally Posted by: Robertski 

Brilliant news for those wanting a cold winter then

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 Seriously, any long range forecast should be taken with a pinch of salt. Although I think that the developing La Nina may increase the chances of a less cold winter. 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I think they're taking the CFS uncorrected model's predicted record breaking la nina a little too seriously

 

Reigate, home of the North Downs

Gavin P
25 September 2011 09:42:40

Update from James Madden;

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

nickl
25 September 2011 10:27:35

Update from James Madden;

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

is it my imagination or does there seem to be more emphasis on the north of the uk re severe cold and snow on this update ?? if so, probably a good idea to do so.

John S2
25 September 2011 11:33:49

Update from James Madden;

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

In order for this prediction to happen - ie not just cold but plenty snow as well - we would probably need depressions approaching on a southerly track, with fronts stalling over Northern England/Southern Scotland as they come up against a block situated to the NE.

Solar Cycles
25 September 2011 11:39:59

Update from James Madden;

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: John S2 

In order for this prediction to happen - ie not just cold but plenty snow as well - we would probably need depressions approaching on a southerly track, with fronts stalling over Northern England/Southern Scotland as they come up against a block situated to the NE.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Looks like a repeat of a 78/79 winter if his forecast were to come true. I would be a happy bunny!

Chalkie
25 September 2011 11:55:09

is it my imagination or does there seem to be more emphasis on the north of the uk re severe cold and snow on this update ?? if so, probably a good idea to do so.

Yep, seems that way, Nick.

I'd consider it a subtle 'downgrade' from previous given the absence of the over-the-top language, e.g.  "prolonged periods of extreme cold", "huge swirly low pressures", "dumps of snow from blzzards", "risk to infrastructure/transportation/economy."

Not quite the Armageddon that seemed to be hinted at from June's update and Sept 2nd and definitely more emphasis on the north/north west.

The cynic in me says that he achieved his goal of grabbing the headlines of the various tabloids and attracting visitors to the site...same goes for PWS...

Joe 

schmee
25 September 2011 11:55:16

Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Gavin D
25 September 2011 12:00:25

Before anyone get's too excited, this latest update mainly features the North, this would suggest the South could be warmer at times.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

I wonder if he managed to correctly forecast this warm spell what is arriving from Tuesday??

Charmhills
25 September 2011 12:03:43

Gavin D if you don't like cold/winter weather didn't post on here simple as that. Come back in Spring.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

the converted
25 September 2011 14:50:35

Update from James Madden;

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: nickl 

is it my imagination or does there seem to be more emphasis on the north of the uk re severe cold and snow on this update ?? if so, probably a good idea to do so.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

At least he is sticking to his guns

John S2
25 September 2011 15:02:33

Gavin D if you don't like cold/winter weather didn't post on here simple as that. Come back in Spring.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

I would like a winter like 88/89 or 91/92, but it won't stop me posting. Incidentally, I think the odds favour a fairly cold winter - the chance of a winter anything like as mild as 88/89 is remote IMO.

Brian Gaze
25 September 2011 15:10:16

Gavin D if you don't like cold/winter weather didn't post on here simple as that. Come back in Spring.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Why?

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin P
25 September 2011 15:11:46

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

I wonder if he managed to correctly forecast this warm spell what is arriving from Tuesday??

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I already posted this this morning?

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

llamedos
25 September 2011 15:47:23

Note for Gavin D

Would you please refrain from posting paragraphs from other weather websites........I'm getting tired of either deleting or editing your posts. Your comments, with a link is fine........anything else isn't

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

Essan
25 September 2011 15:58:33

Update from James Madden;

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

Originally Posted by: nickl 

is it my imagination or does there seem to be more emphasis on the north of the uk re severe cold and snow on this update ?? if so, probably a good idea to do so.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 

Looks like he's predicting most of the snow this winter to occur across Snowdonia, Cumbria, the Ulster hills, Galloway and the Scottish Highlands.   How odd

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Gavin D
25 September 2011 16:03:02

Gavin D if you don't like cold/winter weather didn't post on here simple as that. Come back in Spring.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Why??

Everyone is entitled to there opinion, and after last winter i won't be the only 1 who doesn't want a repeat of the sustained severe cold and snow.

Snow Wolf
25 September 2011 19:58:42

Gavin D if you don't like cold/winter weather didn't post on here simple as that. Come back in Spring.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Why??

Everyone is entitled to there opinion, and after last winter i won't be the only 1 who doesn't want a repeat of the sustained severe cold and snow.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

For some areas it wasn't anywhere near 'sustained severe cold and snow' just a a few December flurries then curtains. Many on here want a proper decent bitter winter this year for once.

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