The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2026 17:10:28

Arpege Tues 42C, Wed 41C, Thurs 41C

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I will be very surprised if these West Country 40s come off. No other model is that high. It has 35c in that region tomorrow which also seems excessive, but will be a good guide to see if it will be accurate regarding Tuesday to Thursday. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
TimS
  • TimS
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21 June 2026 17:15:16
I know this thread is about UK heat, but if I may hijack for a moment with France: it's still a couple of days from the peak, and the hottest temperatures will be in Western France, yet my weather station in Southern Burgundy recorded 39.6C today (it's generally quite reliable and doesn't over-state - only exceeded 40C once since installation).

But more to the point it's currently at 38.3C, at 7.15pm. That's frankly revolting.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
+1
The Beast from the East
21 June 2026 17:19:12
Severe Thunderstorms could be big news maker this week, perhaps more than the heat. 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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saxtemp
21 June 2026 17:21:23
41c in Wales 

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+2
Caz
  • Caz
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21 June 2026 17:54:14

I think 40c is unlikely in the West Country, if it's going to happen it will be the usual suspects in West London.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

But the all time record is 40.3c just up the road from us in Coningsby Lincolnshire.   The first place to officially hit 40c was Gringley on the Hill, Nottinghamshire.  Also just a few miles from us.   We’re currently forecast 37c for Thursday but it keeps going up.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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BYF1
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21 June 2026 17:59:02
UKV 15z still showing 100f plus for Weds/Thurs. Tuesday close too.
North downs, near Folkestone, 177m asl.
scillydave
21 June 2026 17:59:34

41c in Wales 

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Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Which would obliterate the Welsh record of 37.1c set in 2022 in Hawarden.

Before that the record was 35.2c set in 1990.

The 1976 heatwave saw the 5th warmest temperature ever recorded in Wales at 33.6c

That shows how extraordinary the forecast temperatures are. 

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Matty H
21 June 2026 18:04:06
ECM is pretty much the cream of the crop for temp projections in this range. Whatever that is showing likely won’t be far off the mark 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Rob K
21 June 2026 18:05:17

I will be very surprised if these West Country 40s come off. No other model is that high. It has 35c in that region tomorrow which also seems excessive, but will be a good guide to see if it will be accurate regarding Tuesday to Thursday. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

UKV has the highest values in the same kind of region: 38C on Wednesday and Thursday in the West Country. 

Arpege does seem out on its own with the 40C craziness. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2026 18:19:20

I know this thread is about UK heat, but if I may hijack for a moment with France: it's still a couple of days from the peak, and the hottest temperatures will be in Western France, yet my weather station in Southern Burgundy recorded 39.6C today (it's generally quite reliable and doesn't over-state - only exceeded 40C once since installation).

But more to the point it's currently at 38.3C, at 7.15pm. That's frankly revolting.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

We had a few days in Disneyland Paris up to last Tuesday and it was around 26c and plenty hot enough.  We’re so pleased we didn’t go a week later as the forecast is high 30’s and 41c on Tuesday.   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2026 18:31:42

We bought a portable A/C unit about 5 years back at a cost of about £150.

It felt like a luxury then but we've used it every summer since and it's been worth every penny. 

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

We did the same and ours has had a lot of use but it’s noisy, cumbersome and needs an open window.  So we’ve gone a step further and we’re having air con units fitted.  Unfortunately it can’t be fitted until 16th July, so not in time for this coming heatwave.  It’s just short of £6k but we think worth it for our comfort.  We have solar and batteries as well, so it shouldn’t cost anything to run.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2026 19:04:17

But the all time record is 40.3c just up the road from us in Coningsby Lincolnshire.   The first place to officially hit 40c was Gringley on the Hill, Nottinghamshire.  Also just a few miles from us.   We’re currently forecast 37c for Thursday but it keeps going up.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

The East Midlands are more likely to get to 40c than the West Country generally because of the way heat normally comes off the continent.

If other output had 40c in the WC I'd be more inclined to believe Arpege.  But it's isolated, I think 38c will be the high there. Not long to find out. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Rob K
21 June 2026 19:04:35

ECM is pretty much the cream of the crop for temp projections in this range. Whatever that is showing likely won’t be far off the mark 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

ECM was 2 degrees too low for today. 

As for the top temperature this spell I reckon 39.1C. We’ve never had a day with a max of 39C. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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