Maybe a couple of tenths here and there. 

I think it's mainly global warming.  The whole world is setting heat records all the time atm it's not just a UK thing.

Just in the last week heat records have been recorded in

North and South Africa, 

Multiple countries in Europe,

New Zealand 

Indonesia 

Thailand 

Australia 

Florida

Russian Arctic

Pakistan

Iran,

Kazakhstan, 

Brazil

I've probably missed a few.

Darren hates the heat, but he loves an extreme, and I respect him for that. 

If he’s kicking off then it’s on

ARPEGE doing what it does. Overcooking temps  

I don't like the heat either.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

You can add coastal West Antarctica where it’s mid-winter but it’s been reported they’re seeing positive values and an anomaly above 20c.  Quite extraordinary.

Neither do I, not just for the way we’re seeing regular heatwaves close to or breaking records but for what it’s telling us about what’s to come.  Remember we have a potential record breaking El Niño later this year lasting into 2027 as well.

No kicking off here, as the pattern has been set for a couple of days now. Low 30s today, then high 30s for the next three days... my preferred source of temperatures is UKV (which is higher-res than ECM, the ranking charts we often mention are for the global models, not local ones), and that still has 39s for e.g. Reading on Wednesday and Thursday. I would expect to see widespread 35s and 36s on Tuesday to Thursday, and suspect the peak will be 38s or 39s, as per UKV. Reading University has a weather station, which is handy, and it's part of the climate network so would appear on the daily "hottest places" lists.

I'll be enjoying the relatively not-hot conditions today, peaking in the mid 20s here with a breeze off the sea, then it's a case of keeping the house as cool as I can and watching the reports come in over the next three days.

PS, Matty, I'm surprised you mention a/c as you've said in the past you love heat and humidity! I thought you might "raw dog" this heatwave to fully enjoy the experience. 😁

(One thing I've noticed, as an aside, are that in general the "you don't need a/c in the UK" comments you used to see online have largely vanished since 2022. It seems that record-breaking spell has led to societal change, and it's no surprise to see outdoor condenser units gradually popping up on houses in my area).

https://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding_legacy.html 

You just need to pop in the station IDs, 03882 for Herstmonceux and 03808 for Camborne. The latter has a thickness of 571dam as of midnight last night, which is already pretty high!

Had it installed in the bedrooms 3 years ago after 2022. It’s the theatre of a major weather event I enjoy, and the feeling of stepping out of an air conditioned car into that soupy heat 

Tue: 37C

Wed: 41C

Thu: 39C

Meanwhile GFS has 37C for all three days, but I remember it undercooked May as well. 

30C + days on Fri/Sat/Sun & Mon. Tuesday is forecast to be 35C

It has 40C on Thursday too. 

Really amazing to get those temperatures since Nicosia did not even get this yet this year and we was hotter than them last month too.  This will be 2nd month in the row to beat Cyprus highest maxes.  Was only 33 last month and very unlikely this year to get any extreme heatwave to beat France low to mid 40s.  This year summer heat dome seem to persist in W Europe this time. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/14/13749/ukmohd_uk1_16_90_0kvh3.png 

Amusingly the apps/automated forecasts (Met Office and BBC) have a maximum temperature for Thursday of 18°C. Never underestimate the effect of easterly muck. 🤣

Implies potentially toasty up in Aviemore 

We seem to be seeing a shift of Tuesday being a degree or two cooler and Thursday being the peak. 40 is looking within reach now. 

28C according to the MetO raw, but that doesn't draw directly from UKV (which has 39C here on Thursday, compared to 34C on the MetO raw). The MetO output even has 19C at the top of Ben Nevis, and I suspect that, along with the 28 at Aviemore, must be close to record-breaking. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/arpege/00_78_uk2mmintmp.png 

28c showing for Lochailort in the West!   That's plenty hot enough for me .....    

Id love to nail the June record tomorrow so we have that in the bag. But it seems we may be in for an Historic Heat Watch thread.

Yes, small or subtle changes in air source here could make a very big difference here, perhaps by up to around 10°C.

Tuesday to Thursday date records (32.2, 32.6, 33.5) are all sure to go, I would have thought. 

BTW the lowest official minimum yesterday morning was 1.8C at Braemar (so no official air frosts) - exactly 30C below the daily max at Heathrow.