If we didn’t have those crap models that never let us get cold winter weather then we still have decent winters come off with more accurate forecasts done by TV forecasts, newspapers and ceefax/teletext. The more models made online the more crap it is nowadays.   I had enjoyed accurate forecasts before via German TV teletext that I get on Astra satellite that show forecasts for here and when I see Berlin to Amsterdam get down to -5C maxes London get it as well with maxes -1 or so without hitch.  I also watched Dutch TV weather forecasts and I can see this guy smiling when a cold air coming but sad face with milder air.  Ost mean east in Dutch language, I also learned German weather wordings too.   Euronews teletext also features 6 days forecast for locations and for here was very accurate as well no back tracks or cancelling when a cold or hot spell coming.

He seemed quite confident regarding a snowy/wintry week next week. Then an easterly the week after. We'll see , but we will be very unlucky to miss out again imo.

I look at confidence levels in a more objective model focussed way. Snow rows on the GEFS is a good example. There is a max of 33 snow rows. So 17 snow rows gives us about a 50/50 chance of snow falling if you assume that all perts are equal. 30 snow rows gives about a 90% chance and if snow didn't actually fall with this number of rows showing 5 days from now, I think I'd call that unlucky.  30 snow rows 1 day from now and no snow actually falling I'd call very unlucky. 

Is LBC any good then? I'd assumed it was in the usual commercial weather forecasting crap genre!

I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but I much prefer the way things are now. Snow and cold definitely have their interest, sure, but I still miss those balmy summer evenings whether it's cold or mild. I'm much more bothered about getting a classic summer than a classic winter, so in this new "modern climate", I'd say I've gained more than I've lost.

In terms of this cold spell, I'm not fussed that it's evaporated (in fact I'm kind of glad). My mind is rapidly shifting towards spring and the first daffodils opening.

Winter is coming to its end down here..

As I've got older my preferences have shifted from cold to warm, I cant tolerate cold weather like I used to.  I guess that happens with age!

I love snow, and still want to see a historical fall (like, 20-40cm widely across the whole island) that paralyses the country for days on end. But this season's just been one long tease.

Reminds me of parties I went to as a young teenager 

Been like that for almost every winter since this forum started and the BBC weather board before that.

Has TWO ruined winter?!! 🤣

Many people south of the M4 now feel Snow Addict's pain, as there has been a rapid decrease in actual synoptic scenarios happening in reality and not just at day 12,  where any snow falling, let alone laying, is now possible.

The direction of travel is clear, more and more locations as each year passes will fall victim to Snow Addict Syndrome, whereby they crave what it is becoming well nigh impossible to experience.  I wonder what Richard (of Aberdeen) would have to say about the matter...

If all the scrooge nasty models was scrapped and we go back in the past I am sure we will be seeing 20-40cm of snow often, deep cold easily come here, proper powdery snowfalls, nice low -10c night temps and below -2C day time maxes.   All this are possible if we don't have those models which I feel strongly they are so against us getting cold weather even with the latest set-up pattern still refusing to give us one cold spell just one decent one so not much to ask?  I getting more hatred with the models and their ever increasing inaccurately and silliness of showing those fake nice charts at day 10 all the time.  Miss the old days was non-model free weather forecasts that always come off of any weather type.  Simple honest weather forecasts is what we needed to know what ahead.

At that point in time, there was more than a week left of this month and even for this time of year, that is still quite a small requirement for that as we can get that amount of sunshine in a day here now. As a result, I was thinking that this would be a requirement which would surely be met in the end without any problems and that is why I predicted at the time that this month would still be slightly sunnier than average in the end despite the current ongoing permacast hell.

However, a total of 6 completely sunless days in a row have now been recorded since then (including today) at Edinburgh Gogarbank. The end result of this is that the requirement for a sunnier than average month remains completely unchanged since then and there are now only 4 days left of this month for that to happen. According to the latest forecasts, there is still a chance that this month could end up being sunnier than average here but our best chance of getting any decent sunshine total according to those forecasts appears to be tomorrow with the rest of the outlook between then and the end of the month not really looking particular sunny.

With that in mind, I'm beginning to wonder if Jerry might actually end up right after all with his prediction of a slightly duller than average month here. Given how little sunshine we needed for a sunnier than average month over what was a fairly lengthy timescale at one point in time, I will be absolutely astonished if Jerry actually ends up being right after all with that. Given the nature of our weather though, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that was the case.

Last year was very much a year in which the Sun just wouldn't stop shining for most of it but perhaps, this year might end up being a year in which we can't actually buy a sunnier than average month and if this month does end up being slightly duller than average overall, this month may well go down as a key month which shows that up really well.

My desire for cold seems to go down every year, and I'm only 28. I'm just completely unfazed by the whole "hunt for cold" phenomena. If we get a completely snowless winter it really wouldn't worry me in the slightest. Even at Christmas, I don't understand the obsession with getting a White Christmas - snow on 25 December is the same as snow on 18 January as far as I see it.

Roll on March and hopefully the first hint of a 20C burst from the south...

My desire for cold and snow keeps going up, and I'm 46 - absence makes the heart grow fonder. My neighbour (who died a few years ago aged 96) was also a massive snow fan, even if it did keep her indoors - it's by no means inevitable that you go off it when you get older. 

As for a White Christmas, I'd sell my soul (well, if I believed in that sort of thing) to have one here. It would, genuinely, make me deliriously happy to see just one before I die - a lifetime of seeing twee snowy scenes in everything from Christmas comics to cartoons to TV programmes and films, and now five years since seeing snow on the ground at any time of year means it's building up like a bubble inside of me. I feel I'll die without seeing it happen. (A feeling that grows as I remember my mum died at 48 and my dad died at 67 - I've not that many years left).

In the 90s there were a couple of years where it snowed a few days after Christmas, and going out and about seeing all the town centre Christmas lights twinkling away with the snow on the ground was magical. Snow washes away the dirt and grime for a while, it makes everything seem lighter and brings cheer to the dull winter days. I still remember the feeling of waking up in the middle of the night and the bedroom being light, but moreso than it is when a full moon's shining - all due to the street lights reflecting off the layer of snow. Wonderful!

As for this winter so far, it's been a proper kick in the nuts. The "AI" pattern matchers showed that we would indeed have had our snow and easterlies if it were the 80s.

I really do wish I could go back to the 80s or 90s, knowing what I know now, and not take the snow we had for granted.

Oh look, snow flurries in FLORIDA on Saturday are a distinct probabilty. I hate the climate in this country so much. 

Classic, they already had snow flurries on the 19th - even in the panhandle. It's just typical that Florida (of all places) gets more snow than the once snowy Kent!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 

Early December we had steady rain and misty grey murky skies. This was followed by two weeks of dry chilly weather with some wintery sunshine. This January we’ve had one severe storm making what trees we did have go for a lay down. We are at the moment in the middle of a very wet period with local flooding and our roads turning into gravel, pot holed debris strewn tracks.

All we need now is a couple of weeks of super cold east winds and I’ll have a full house.

This Jan mean is 2.8c here , marginally warmer than the 2.4c last January. Cooler than average. Both months have had lengthy cold spells but January 2025 much more snow where we hit the jackpot and had a week of wintry Nirvana and severe disruption. Just didn't really get lucky this month. 

You say in jest, but I've pondered along those lines (not specifically TWO, but monitoring models and looking for snowy potential in winter, or long, settled, sunny, warm spells in summer).

I also wonder if it's contributed to my life flying along at a worrying pace, like I'm on x4 fast-forward. I always seem to be looking into the relatively near future and having a realisation that things like seasons are flying by. One example is that I love the dark evenings, and without thinking about them I just felt like they went on for an age (that mid-Nov to mid-Jan period would seem to go on and on). Now, I seem to blink and it's still light at getting on for 5pm. The reverse is true in summer (I love the light nights), but I have a realisation in early August - which for me is high summer - that the nights are drawing in.

Just wait till your daughter reaches 60, as mine has. Then (and I hope you're still in good health to celebrate) you'll really wonder where the time went😊😊