Both Jamaica and Cuba have hurricane defence policies and have put funding into providing shelters and strengthening infrastructure, so the loss of life is less than would be the case if, say, Melissa had hit Haiti. But nevertheless, the damage looks fearsome and will impoverish the islands for some time to come. Tourism is a money-spinner for Jamaica, but even once everything has been tidied up, people will still remember Melissa and not take the risk.
Now the interesting point for Britain is where Melissa will arrive. The models offer three possibilities for Monday:
1) merging with the N Atlantic circulation near Greenland (GFS, ECM).
2) maintaining its identity as a tropical storm aimed at Scotland (NHC)
3) becoming a moderately deep but conventional depression, post-tropical with fronts, and aimed at Ireland (FAX)
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce
Chichester 12m asl