https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/06/hurricane-erick-could-make-history-with-a-powerful-early-season-landfall-in-mexico/ 

My childhood hurricane mnemonic has become stretched over the years! 

"June- too soon; July - stand by; August - come it must; September - remember; October - all over."

A rare Atlantic Niña event has developed in the tropics and is expected to impact hurricane activity in the coming weeks. But long-range predictions show that this anomaly will rapidly reverse into a warm Atlantic Niño event, which increases Hurricane activity and landfall potential for the United States and can indicate certain Winter patterns ahead. [published 19/6/25]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-la-nina-hurricane-season-impact-winter-2025-2026-reach-over-united-states-canada-fa/ 

Basically minimal activity in July then over-active in August

Erick makes landfall as Cat 3 - the earliest of that strength to make landfall in the Americas, and only the second  cat 3 to make landfall before end of June. Fortunately it came ashore in a sprsely populated area.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/06/hurricane-erick-crashes-into-mexico-at-category-3-strength/ 

With hurricane season looming, the National Weather Service — which lost more than 560 employees to layoffs and early retirement incentives earlier this year — received permission to hire about 125 new meteorologists and specialists for its forecast offices around the country, despite a federal hiring freeze. Those hires will help staff offices that had to cut back on their hours or stop staffing the overnight shift.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/doge-fired-workers-rehired 

Meanwhile the first of the season in the Atlantic, a puny TS Andrea, has appeared, but it's not going anywhere

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/down-but-not-out-90l-staging-a-comeback? 

TD Barry drenching Mexico's Gulf Coast and TS Flossie doing the same for the west coast but mostly the effect is rainfall.

Chantal now a TS but moving inland and decaying but with lots of rain for the Carolinas

Meanwhile around south China: Tropical Storm Wipha enhances southwest monsoon

https://watchers.news/2025/07/18/tropical-storm-wipha-enhances-southwest-monsoon-flood-luzon-philippines/ 

There have also been a couple of other destructive typhoons in the W Pacific this month - listed at the end of the link

This comment from the link. 

Gaisano Mall in Cebu, Philippine is completely flooded due to heavy rainfall.

This isn't just bad weather, it's poor planning. How many more floods before drainage gets fixed?

Familiar story. They build the malls and housing first, forget the infrastructure and leave it to God to sort out later.

Like Britain. 

But Manila storms are incredible at this time of year.  Humid heat, filthy air and thunderstorms. I remember them well. Hell on Earth.

You would think a Typhoon hitting Hong Kong would be newsworthy event over here, but hardly anything.  If it was America on other hand.....

Where are all the hurricanes - at least in the Atlantic?

The Pacific remains active with, currently, Iona as a hurricane, Keli as a TS on its heels, and a new disturbance off Mexico as yet unnamed but given a 90% chance of development. All these heading off into the wide blue spaces of the Pacific Ocean, so not making news.

Is it due to dust again in Africa as it was last year?

Very likely a factor I think. 

I know it's probably just clutching at straws but is there any correlation between pacific activity and our weather... downstream?

The start of the Pacific season was pretty active in line with the great start to summer (down here at least) but just as our weather turned a little more unsettled and cooler, the Pacific was quiet for a time... and now picking up again.

As I said maybe straw searching, just interested...

Well, if the GFS is correct it does look like the weather will turn cruddy again in a week's time - hopefully it's just off on one (even though it's being quite persistent with it), but who knows. 

A key sign of hurricane activity has flipped into high gear

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2025/08/02/sign-of-hurricane-activity-heats-up-august/85474411007/ 

Concentrates on SSTs in mid-south Atlantic, in the 'Main Development Region', and wrt posts above has the statement:

"One of the biggest disruptors of the Atlantic hurricane season so far has been unfavorable upper-level winds," Klotzbach told USA TODAY. "Atlantic vertical wind shear is generally westerly. We've had a lot of upper-level westerly winds over the past few weeks, increasing vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region."

pub run predicting a hurricane off the carolina coast, only showing as 20% risk on NHC website

Up to 40% this morning; and NHC tentatively suggesting something in the usual mid-Atlantic development region

Pub run op has a Florida Hurricane, whilst the control has a east coast hugger.   Clearly conditions are improving for something to develop which also may affect our final heatwave potential

TS Dexter now formed and running NE into the Atlantic from a point off the Carolinas. May appear as a minor trough in UK weather - see Model Output thread. There are some small disturbances in its wake but they don't look like developing.

A tropical wave just leaving the west coast of Africa has good prospects of development as it moves towards the Caribbean over the next week - it may become the one that GFS is picking up off the E Coast of the USA Sat 16th

There seems to be new one developing according to GFS, its been said the hurricane activity is now ramping up

TS Erin now formed in southern mid-Atlantic, forecast to develop into major hurricane and run clear north of Caribbean islands (but could easily worry Bermuda later). GFS and other models have it running into the NW Atlantic by Thu 21st and GEM even adds a fore-runner developing out of unusual Gulf Stream warmth.

Going to have more impact on our weather than  the US or caribbean.  

Erin now a Cat 5 and further south than expected.