I'm expecting a rain-snow-rain event here, with at best a brief period of having a cm or two of slush on the ground (more likely no lying snow at all)

 

I’d be much more confident of snow in Merseyside compared to Greater Manchester on Thursday. Fingers crossed for you. 🤞👍

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UKV’s take.

The snow shadow effect to the immediate west of the Pennines shown perfectly.

Liverpool and Sheffield will probably get lying snow but Manchester will probably stay dry. 

 

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Looks like a band of snow coming SE over Scotland tonight in subzero air. Might just reach Glasgow & Edinburgh by dawn

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Looks like a band of snow coming SE over Scotland tonight in subzero air. Might just reach Glasgow & Edinburgh by dawn

It's almost certain that the hills will kill off any precipitation for this area.

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UKV’s take.

The snow shadow effect to the immediate west of the Pennines shown perfectly.

Liverpool and Sheffield will probably get lying snow but Manchester will probably stay dry. 

 

Where's Manchester? 🤔

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Where's Manchester? 🤔

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It is the most infuriating weather phenomenon I’ve ever known. An absolute pain in the arse. The Peak District is hardly the Himalayas! It’s such a kick in the balls given that the vast majority of frontal snow events have winds from an easterly quarter. Kev posted this on the other side from March 1965. Bonkers. 

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Cold front is 100 miles or so further south than forecast! Good start!
 

Yellow warnings move the southern boundary further north…

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Slushy wet snow that struggles to accumulate... yay. 

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Well the latest Arpege 6z has the snow much further south even gives me a few Cms.

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=50&mode=42&map=300 

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Slushy wet snow that struggles to accumulate... yay. 

Yes. Unless it turns out to be massively undercooked, I have absolutely no interest in this event.

It's either a cold wet day, or a few hours with dirty, mucky slush everywhere as it appears now. 😐

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It is the most infuriating weather phenomenon I’ve ever known. An absolute pain in the arse. The Peak District is hardly the Himalayas! It’s such a kick in the balls given that the vast majority of frontal snow events have winds from an easterly quarter. Kev posted this on the other side from March 1965. Bonkers. 

I remember the phenomenon really well from 2013 - there was a satellite image showing snow covering much of the country in January, with a very obvious green patch around Manchester. Can you spot it? 🤔

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I remember the phenomenon really well from 2013 - there was a satellite image showing snow covering much of the country in January, with a very obvious green patch around Manchester. Can you spot it? 🤔

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It happened a few times. The snowfalls in both Jan and Mar 13 seemed to handily coincide with weekends. I'd be going into work on the Monday, driving east along the M62, leaving our house with snow on the ground, and the snow cover would start to fizzle just east of Birchwood, with Manchester having had nothing. My boss at the time lived in Urmston and he thought I was pulling his leg when I kept telling him we'd had 10/15cm of snow over the weekend. 😁

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I remember the phenomenon really well from 2013 - there was a satellite image showing snow covering much of the country in January, with a very obvious green patch around Manchester. Can you spot it? 🤔

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A stunning photo. A great Spell January 13.
 

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Liverpool's snow-depth ensembles. Thursday looks promising (but I have grave doubts!):




Even Manchester's show accumulations...

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Is a pity that any snow that falls will likely disappear quickly . 
Looks like there could be two pulses of snow, the initial one the best chance for the Midlands and may break up into N England during Thursday day and then a second burst which may only be snow  N England northwards and north of M62 by dawn on Friday before turning to rain slowly further north. 

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Arpege 12z even further south. London in with a chance. 

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=47&mode=42&map=300 
 

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Arpege 12z even further south. London in with a chance. 

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=47&mode=42&map=300 
 

Indeed. At the rate things are being shifted south Leeds could end up staying dry entirely on Thursday (which I'm personally fine with as I don't want slushy snow).

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GEFS 12Z has 4 runs which show accumulating snow in my patch. 😁

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Arpege 12z even further south. London in with a chance. 

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=47&mode=42&map=300 
 

So, after the 12z runs we have Arpege now predicting snow for the northern part of Herts and northwards, albeit after a damp start.  

Alaro has firmed up on snow north of London, some of it quite heavy.

WRF has the rain-snow boundary north of Cambridge, but it’s moved south a little v the previous run.

ICON has the boundary slightly further north than WRF, with rain for Norfolk & Suffolk.  That seems to be partly down to a lower intensity of precipitation, which as Q has mentioned is critical when there needs to be cooling of the air.

UKMO has the snow in a similar zone to ICON, but again I am pretty sure the boundary has trended south.

So, 36-48 hours to go and still a lot of uncertainty across the swathe of the country north of the Thames-Severn Estuary line (aka M4 corridor…).

My guess right now for here would be some white stuff coming down but mostly wet on the ground.



 

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There are probably a good few more ensemble members showing new snow depth here but I don’t really expect any snow cover as things stand.

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