scillydave
13 January 2024 08:29:47
I very rarely post in the moaning thread as I like most weather however I can't help but feeling really frustrated with the current outlook.
There was so much promise in the charts of snow for this week and as of this morning (obviously it m8ght change) it looks unlikely for many of us.

Perhaps it was the talkof the potential for 'disruptive snow' or the mouth watering charts - whatever it was i was truly suckered in.

All that's on offer for my back yard now is bog standard winter - it's not even going to be that cold. Highs of 4c and lows of -2 or 3.

Our climate has shifted so much since my youth that it's hard to reconcile sometimes.

I never thought id say it but roll on Spring (which at least arrives in February these days!)
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 January 2024 15:21:24
The really disappointing thing about recent model output has been that it offered, for the first time in years, a reasonable prospect of a channel low with heavy snow for the south coast. Now it seems that the coldest of the weather is being diverted eastwards and the low itself is off to France. Even if NW's snow prediction for Wed afternoon has got it right, https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk , milder air is present by Friday, and it'll all thaw a couple of days later, just like it did in 2010.  
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
fairweather
16 January 2024 13:11:36
Agree with Dew. Scotland has probably just about met its expectations but in the South, as much as I held the faith, the naysayers were right, as they almost always are these days. Daytime maxes of 3C, night time mins so far only -3C, no snow at all, this would barely have qualified as a small cold snap last century, just routine winter weather. I just don't understand why the modelers don't put a permanent algorithm in to shove everything 200 -500 miles because that is what happens EVERY (well at least 9 out of 10 times with northerlies in the last 25 years). It's frankly embarrassing that they are happy to keep accepting the output. They could easily recorrect if they had that one in a hundred chance that it actually shifted west at the last minute!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
16 January 2024 13:15:20
Originally Posted by: scillydave 

I very rarely post in the moaning thread as I like most weather however I can't help but feeling really frustrated with the current outlook.
There was so much promise in the charts of snow for this week and as of this morning (obviously it m8ght change) it looks unlikely for many of us.

Perhaps it was the talkof the potential for 'disruptive snow' or the mouth watering charts - whatever it was i was truly suckered in.

All that's on offer for my back yard now is bog standard winter - it's not even going to be that cold. Highs of 4c and lows of -2 or 3.

Our climate has shifted so much since my youth that it's hard to reconcile sometimes.

I never thought id say it but roll on Spring (which at least arrives in February these days!)


Look on the bright side. All those lovely places you've lived - imagine how you would feel about it f you lived on a housing estate in S.Essex 🤔
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fullybhoy
16 January 2024 14:35:58
I must admit i was a wee bit optimistic about this “Arctic” blast this week up here……its barely been below -1c at night, it’s currently absolutely pissing it down with rain atm……….i know a wee bit further up north are getting hammered with snow……..but Glasgow and surrounding areas are absolutely brutal now for wintry weather…roll on summer ☀️ 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
The JR
16 January 2024 14:50:59
Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 

I must admit i was a wee bit optimistic about this “Arctic” blast this week up here……its barely been below -1c at night, it’s currently absolutely pissing it down with rain atm……….i know a wee bit further up north are getting hammered with snow……..but Glasgow and surrounding areas are absolutely brutal now for wintry weather…roll on summer ☀️ 



Yep same here in Ice-Station Balfron (as I used to call it). Forecast, 'snowmaggedon' followed by ice. Actuality, a thaw of Sunday nights lying snow followed by heavy rain. MetO app says it's fog right now but its so thin I cant even see it...
 
Ally Pally Snowman
16 January 2024 14:54:51
Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 

I must admit i was a wee bit optimistic about this “Arctic” blast this week up here……its barely been below -1c at night, it’s currently absolutely pissing it down with rain atm……….i know a wee bit further up north are getting hammered with snow……..but Glasgow and surrounding areas are absolutely brutal now for wintry weather…roll on summer ☀️ 



That's a shocker with your altitude as well. I would have thought you would be snowmageddon by now.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
noodle doodle
16 January 2024 15:04:45
It's raining in Edinburgh now - what a pile of absolute arse
Brian Gaze
16 January 2024 15:11:04
Pleasant for walking around here. My VP 2 recorded 4.8C earlier this afternoon and it doesn't feel cold in the sun.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
johncs2016
16 January 2024 15:32:56
Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 

It's raining in Edinburgh now - what a pile of absolute arse



It's still bone dry here in NW Edinburgh though (the Sun has even come out as I write), so any rainfall in the area just now much only be very localised.

I've had enough of this so-called "winter" though, and can't wait for the spring to come around as it is now at least slowly getting lighter at nights once again.

 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Brian Gaze
16 January 2024 15:38:14
Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Agree with Dew. Scotland has probably just about met its expectations but in the South, as much as I held the faith, the naysayers were right, as they almost always are these days. Daytime maxes of 3C, night time mins so far only -3C, no snow at all, this would barely have qualified as a small cold snap last century, just routine winter weather. I just don't understand why the modelers don't put a permanent algorithm in to shove everything 200 -500 miles because that is what happens EVERY (well at least 9 out of 10 times with northerlies in the last 25 years). It's frankly embarrassing that they are happy to keep accepting the output. They could easily recorrect if they had that one in a hundred chance that it actually shifted west at the last minute!



I think that's a bit harsh. This cold spell never looked Premier League level as I said a good while ago. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2024 15:56:59
Looking at the radar it reminds me of summer. There's a band of rain in the SW approaches. Of course, I'm often looking for thundery stuff in the summer to water the garden. Invariably though at this stage of the game, activity looks like it's got me in its sights. But no, most of the time it either passes to the north, south, east or west of me, leaving me in the dry sweet/sour spot. Today what might become snow looks like giving me a complete miss, perhaps giving me an early morning peck on the cheek as it moves along the Channel where it's going to recover its mojo and give the mother of all snow dumps in Belgium tomorrow.  Ah well, perhaps next time.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2024 16:13:11
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think that's a bit harsh. This cold spell never looked Premier League level as I said a good while ago. 



I agree. The 'Arctic blast' was well forecast in terms of arrival time and wind direction. It never really looked like delivering snow for the south except in a few coastal locations. The Channel low teased us as it always does and as per usual looks likely to end up to the south of us. Even the end of the cold has been showing as Saturday for the south for some time now. There was hope that once the cold has arrived, things can happen but I didn't see that as more than hope. 

The Met Office didn't help the hype with their disruptive snow video which made people wonder if there was something they knew that they didn't. But there wasn't. 

EDIT: Just seen the UKV post on Model Output thread. Perhaps a sting in the tail for the extreme south?
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
noodle doodle
16 January 2024 17:08:18
Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

It's still bone dry here in NW Edinburgh though (the Sun has even come out as I write), so any rainfall in the area just now much only be very localised.

I've had enough of this so-called "winter" though, and can't wait for the spring to come around as it is now at least slowly getting lighter at nights once again.

 



It'll be an interesting interview with the manager of the Met Office. He predicted a 3-0 win for snow over rain even this morning and we've ended up with a 0-1 loss and we're out the cup 🙄
Saint Snow
19 January 2024 11:42:48
I can't remember the last snowy breakdown we had.

I know they're bittersweet (we never want a cold spell to end!) but as a last hoorah, they're nice to get

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
19 January 2024 16:14:07
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I can't remember the last snowy breakdown we had.

I know they're bittersweet (we never want a cold spell to end!) but as a last hoorah, they're nice to get

 



This is always a very boring way for a cold spell to end. The high sinks south allowing ever milder winds to feed in. But by the time any actual precipitation arrives the temp is far too high for snow. Still, I'll be glad to see the back of the ice. The pavements are *lethal*. Made even worse by the light covering of snow last night, which just hides the ice.
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Boardshark
19 January 2024 20:07:26
Is the issue we now have access to too much information so expectations are raised whereas in the past we only had the tv or newspaper forecast which were always toned down until something was nailed on?
449ft Sutton Coldfield, West MIdlands
Bolty
19 January 2024 20:12:47
Not too fussed about the milder weather returning, as I don't overly enjoy colder temperatures anyway. The only bad thing is how it's bringing all the wind and rain back with it, which unfortunately seems to be the way with milder flows (a bit like cool flows in the summer).

I'd love a February 2019 end to this winter, personally.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Lionel Hutz
19 January 2024 21:51:12
Originally Posted by: Boardshark 

Is the issue we now have access to too much information so expectations are raised whereas in the past we only had the tv or newspaper forecast which were always toned down until something was nailed on?



Yes, I think that you make a very good point. I suppose that the other point is that really good spells are rather harder to come by these days which makes it a bit more disappointing when potential isn't realised.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Jiries
20 January 2024 06:00:32
Originally Posted by: Boardshark 

Is the issue we now have access to too much information so expectations are raised whereas in the past we only had the tv or newspaper forecast which were always toned down until something was nailed on?



I like to see massive reduction on those as it got worst and far more not accurate nowadays than early 2000s with wilful delays, push backs, downgrades which upgrade no longer exist and cancelling any much needed interesting weather patterns.  Wilful delays are used in Royal Mail by shoving the letters aside and prioritising parcels first so the models are doing the same to shoving the cold aside and prioritising the mild air to keep going until they bleed the cold air out to become damaged less cold air arrived instead. 
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