As an addendum to what I have just said said, I can also mention that there are also the effects of climate change which means that the overall scenario isn't actually quite as simple as that coin tossing example which I have just given. I don't intend to be controversial in any way, but climate change has actually been ongoing on this planet ever since it was first formed and long before there were ever any humans on this planet.

The controversial part of that only really comes from what extent we believe that mankind has contributed towards that, and the manner in which we try to convey that particular argument based on what we believe in. Regardless of whether or not mankind has contributed to that in any way though, climate change has always been happening and will continue to always happen.

One result of this is that those 30 year averages which we use for rainfall and other aspects of our weather such as the temperature are always going to change over time.

Because of that, there can never be any guarantees that any rainfall deficit which builds up over a number of years will always be fully made up for in the end because it may well be that the climate in that particular location is actually getting drier over time.

That also works the other way around as well because if we were to go through a number of consecutive years when it was wetter than average for most of the time, this doesn't necessarily guarantee that there will be some drier spell at some point in time which will fully make up for that because there is a small chance that the climate in that particular location might actually be getting wetter over time.
 

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30 year rolling averages worked in the past because there was sufficient "smoothing" over that period to buffer ups and downs and even the extreme weather events like 1976, 1963, 1947 etc. The problem is that whilst there have always been climate changes there has never been such a rapid underlying change in one direction as in the last 50 years without a single catostrophic event causing a baseline change.

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If it really was the case that dry spells were always fully made up for in the end, we would not have come anywhere close to seeing more than two years in a row with that rainfall deficit here in Edinburgh continuing to build up over time.

At some point in time within that period, we would have expected to have seen a very wet spell which would have balanced out those deficits but this hasn't happened here for over two years now which in itself shows that it isn't necessarily every single rainfall deficit which is wiped out in the end by that much talked about "law of averages".

At the end of the day, we have to look at it like tossing a coin. When we do that, we may well get a certain number of heads or tails in a row, but this does nothing to change the fact that our our chances of getting a head or a tail with the next throw are still exactly equal to each other.

I would therefore imagine that our chances of getting a wetter spell or a drier spell would probably work in more or less exactly that same manner.
 

I think you're just being a little over dramatic here. Relatively speaking yes maybe you have been a little dry compared to what you are used to, but you have likely still seen more annual rain than a lot of other parts of the UK would see on average.  Water shortages shouldn't be a problem when considering the tiny population of Scotland. 

My own city we average 20 days in summer with rain falling leaving 72 days in summer with no rainfall, summer being June to August. But leading up to summer May is our dryest month on average... We manage just fine. 

I think you're just being a little over dramatic here. Relatively speaking yes maybe you have been a little dry compared to what you are used to, but you have likely still seen more annual rain than a lot of other parts of the UK would see on average.  Water shortages shouldn't be a problem when considering the tiny population of Scotland. 

My own city we average 20 days in summer with rain falling leaving 72 days in summer with no rainfall, summer being June to August. But leading up to summer May is our dryest month on average... We manage just fine. 

In my lifetime, I have not known any other period of time when it has been so relatively dry here for so long and when I have also been in a position where I have been able to report that here on TWO.

For that reason, you can surely forgive me for being slightly over dramatic as a result.

As a person, I have always been very nervous about ongoing events like this and especially whilst in the process of not knowing what the eventual outcome of that will be. That is just a natural aspect of who I am and if anyone on here chooses not to accept that, that is their problem at the end of the day and not mine.

It's the same when I am at home as well because I might for example, be a bit scared to use a particular piece of equipment in the kitchen such as a toaster prior to using it for the first time. Once I have gone ahead and used it though, I have then been fine once I have realised that my previous fears had actually not been realised in any way.

It is the same thing with my fears about the possible situation here as regards to rainfall but once we come out of the other end of that with me then knowing what the final outcome of that has ended up being, I'm sure that I will then be fine. Bear in mind as well, that I do have a condition (called Asperger Syndrome) which may or may not be contributing to that, so that also has to be taken into consideration here if that is appropriate in this case.
 

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In my lifetime, I have not known any other period of time when it has been so relatively dry here for so long and when I have also been in a position where I have been able to report that here on TWO.

For that reason, you can surely forgive me for being slightly over dramatic as a result.

As a person, I have always been very nervous about ongoing events like this and especially whilst in the process of not knowing what the eventual outcome of that will be. That is just a natural aspect of who I am and if anyone on here chooses not to accept that, that is their problem at the end of the day and not mine.

It's the same when I am at home as well because I might for example, be a bit scared to use a particular piece of equipment in the kitchen such as a toaster prior to using it for the first time. Once I have gone ahead and used it though, I have then been fine once I have realised that my previous fears had actually not been realised in any way.

It is the same thing with my fears about the possible situation here as regards to rainfall but once we come out of the other end of that with me then knowing what the final outcome of that has ended up being, I'm sure that I will then be fine. Bear in mind as well, that I do have a condition (called Asperger Syndrome) which may or may not be contributing to that, so that also has to be taken into consideration here if that is appropriate in this case.
 

I think you may be worrying unnecessarily. According to SEPA in the period between June 2022 and May 2023 The Royal Botanic Gardens received 645mm of rain. The mean for that period is 659mm. 

https://www2.sepa.org.uk/rainfall 

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I think you may be worrying unnecessarily. According to SEPA in the period between June 2022 and May 2023 The Royal Botanic Gardens received 645mm of rain. The mean for that period is 659mm. 

https://www2.sepa.org.uk/rainfall 

I may well be worrying unnecessarily and I fully admit to that.

As I have said before though, I do sometimes do that. That may or may not be linked to my condition of Asperger Syndrome but either way, that is part of who I am and as such, is something which people on here are free to choose either to accept or not accept as they wish. If they choose not to accept that, that is their problem and not mines but there are a couple of points which I would like to add to that.

Under normal circumstances, Edinburgh Gogarbank would usually be slightly wetter than the botanic gardens in Edinburgh on average. During the first half of this year though, that hasn't actually been the case and in fact, the number of official rain days at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during the spring was actually slightly above the 1991-2020 spring average for that particular station.

That is something which surprised me quite a lot, especially when you consider how dry it has been recently. During this year so far, the overall rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank has been lower than what the total for the Royal Botanic Gardens and since Edinburgh Gogarbank is normally the wetter of those two stations on average, this means that the resulting deficit is actually much larger at Edinburgh Gogarbank than what it is at the botanic gardens at the moment.

Also and unlike at the Royal Botanic gardens, the number of official rain days during the spring was actually well below average.

My second point  comes from the fact that SEPA have raised the water scarcity level for here to early risk and also warned that this situation could well escalate over the coming months. There is clearly a reason for them to have come out with such a statement but my question to you in response to that is, does this mean that SEPA are also worrying unnecessarily?
 

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I may well be worrying unnecessarily and I fully admit to that.

As I have said before though, I do sometimes do that. That may or may not be linked to my condition of Asperger Syndrome but either way, that is part of who I am and as such, is something which people on here are free to choose either to accept or not accept as they wish. If they choose not to accept that, that is their problem and not mines but there are a couple of points which I would like to add to that.

Under normal circumstances, Edinburgh Gogarbank would usually be slightly wetter than the botanic gardens in Edinburgh on average. During the first half of this year though, that hasn't actually been the case and in fact, the number of official rain days at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during the spring was actually slightly above the 1991-2020 spring average for that particular station.

That is something which surprised me quite a lot, especially when you consider how dry it has been recently. During this year so far, the overall rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank has been lower than what the total for the Royal Botanic Gardens and since Edinburgh Gogarbank is normally the wetter of those two stations on average, this means that the resulting deficit is actually much larger at Edinburgh Gogarbank than what it is at the botanic gardens at the moment.

Also and unlike at the Royal Botanic gardens, the number of official rain days during the spring was actually well below average.

My second point  comes from the fact that SEPA have raised the water scarcity level for here to early risk and also warned that this situation could well escalate over the coming months. There is clearly a reason for them to have come out with such a statement but my question to you in response to that is, does this mean that SEPA are also worrying unnecessarily?
 

I think they're being cautious. If we have a dry summer (like last year) then restrictions are likely so it's sensible for them to raise awareness for that. Of course no one knows what the summer will bring in terms of rainfall so we'll have to wait until September to assess the situation as it is then.

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I think they're being cautious. If we have a dry summer (like last year) then restrictions are likely so it's sensible for them to raise awareness for that. Of course no one knows what the summer will bring in terms of rainfall so we'll have to wait until September to assess the situation as it is then.

Exactly, and that is all that I have been trying to be on this matter all along when I have been giving my own assessments on what I predict might or might not happen, so I will apologise now for appearing to be worrying unduly about that as that has never at any point in time, been my actual intention.
 

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My last rain was 15 days ago and we've had a very dry April (61%) and May (59%). Although no hosepipe ban yet, Scottish Water on the local news last night were urging people to be careful. I'm not sure the weekend showers in the south will get this far north either 🤔

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My last rain was 15 days ago and we've had a very dry April (61%) and May (59%). Although no hosepipe ban yet, Scottish Water on the local news last night were urging people to be careful. I'm not sure the weekend showers in the south will get this far north either 🤔

Even if they did, there would be no actual guarantee of us getting any of them as these types of events are always very much hit or miss affairs.

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I'm not sure the weekend showers in the south will get this far north either 🤔

I'm not sure they'll get this far north either! 😂

The Met Office have a completely dry outlook here right up until this time next week, by which time we'd be a month into the drought. Hopefully there'll be some rain, but I'm not going to get my hopes up... I wouldn't be at all surprised if it switches from dry and rather cool to dry, very warm and muggy!

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This Summer- 2023 No Precipitation for 8 days.
  

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We're about 3 weeks now without a drop of rainfall, a month since anything substantial.

Grass all around here, even big fields, is now very yellow in parts exposed to the sun and what is a very dry wind. The (generally grain/rape) crops in the fields in the area all *seem* lush, but that can hide a multitude of issues. 

We really need a bountiful harvest this year to take some of the pressure of prices. 

Whilst I'll enjoy the lovely weather, I would have preferred a more mixed period of weather with some [ideally midweek 😁] rainfall thrown in to keep soils moist. We're forecast for thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday (with more general showers also on Sunday) so I do hope this happens to give the ground and crops a soaking.





 

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Definitely finally browning up around here as we approach the 1 month mark without rain. The showers for the weekend look hit and miss for here so we may well stay dry.
If that happens we may well get close to the 40 day mark without rain and that really would be significant for this area.

Feast or famine when it comes to rainfall at the moment it seems (or at least in my part of the world!)

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It's interesting to see the "soil moisture change" charts - the drought is having a massive effect down here, with large areas of 4-6cm water loss per week. That's about the highest you'll ever see, coming as it does at the time of peak insolation. What I wouldn't give for a few days of what Italy (or the former Yugoslavia) is getting!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4.png 

 

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It's interesting to see the "soil moisture change" charts - the drought is having a massive effect down here, with large areas of 4-6cm water loss per week. That's about the highest you'll ever see, coming as it does at the time of peak insolation. What I wouldn't give for a few days of what Italy (or the former Yugoslavia) is getting!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4.png 

 

It’s a similar picture here and looking at the model output I’m not convinced that we will see a significant amount of rain here by the end of the month. 

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It’s a similar picture here and looking at the model output I’m not convinced that we will see a significant amount of rain here by the end of the month. 

You'll recall my earlier comment about the D-word, DrM. 😁 Dry conditions continue here, but with the cloud cover it has been decidedly cool at times - even to "hot-water-bottle level". We were planning to go on a "farm walk" tomorrow and I wonder what's in store for us. I suspect we are a bit far east for much thunderstorm risk as presently shown. Of course that could change.

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I thought my lawn had been holding up well, but it's gone from green to yellow in the space of a few days this week. Also I notice  out in the country that the ruts created in the wet weather up to mid-May have set quickly and are like concrete, no gentle degradation, so quite unpleasant to walk on.

MetO rainfall chart offers very little relief for much of the country, just a scattering of showers (heavy where they do occur) in quite a narrow band from the Mersey estuary down to London on Saturday, plus a few crossing Cornwall earlier. Then back to dry for everyone by early next week.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/uk-weather-map  

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MetO rainfall chart offers very little relief for much of the country, just a scattering of showers (heavy where they do occur) in quite a narrow band from the Mersey estuary down to London on Saturday, plus a few crossing Cornwall earlier. Then back to dry for everyone by early next week.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/uk-weather-map  

I bet it rains on my family bbq tomorrow night after weeks of dry weather!

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It's interesting to see the "soil moisture change" charts - the drought is having a massive effect down here, with large areas of 4-6cm water loss per week. That's about the highest you'll ever see, coming as it does at the time of peak insolation. What I wouldn't give for a few days of what Italy (or the former Yugoslavia) is getting!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4.png 

 

My lawn is still green, though it seems to have stopped growing this week and starting to yellow in areas. Roses still coming through nicely even though I havent watered anything yet this year. Must still be enough moisture deeper in the ground from all that rain we had in April and early May
I'm glad I refused a water meter! My neighbours all have one now, I will resist until the deadline in 2025 - its compulsory here with East Surrey water

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