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johncs2016
Tuesday, June 6, 2023 3:03:49 PM

I think you may be worrying unnecessarily. According to SEPA in the period between June 2022 and May 2023 The Royal Botanic Gardens received 645mm of rain. The mean for that period is 659mm. 

https://www2.sepa.org.uk/rainfall 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 



I may well be worrying unnecessarily and I fully admit to that.

As I have said before though, I do sometimes do that. That may or may not be linked to my condition of Asperger Syndrome but either way, that is part of who I am and as such, is something which people on here are free to choose either to accept or not accept as they wish. If they choose not to accept that, that is their problem and not mines but there are a couple of points which I would like to add to that.

Under normal circumstances, Edinburgh Gogarbank would usually be slightly wetter than the botanic gardens in Edinburgh on average. During the first half of this year though, that hasn't actually been the case and in fact, the number of official rain days at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during the spring was actually slightly above the 1991-2020 spring average for that particular station.

That is something which surprised me quite a lot, especially when you consider how dry it has been recently. During this year so far, the overall rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank has been lower than what the total for the Royal Botanic Gardens and since Edinburgh Gogarbank is normally the wetter of those two stations on average, this means that the resulting deficit is actually much larger at Edinburgh Gogarbank than what it is at the botanic gardens at the moment.

Also and unlike at the Royal Botanic gardens, the number of official rain days during the spring was actually well below average.

My second point  comes from the fact that SEPA have raised the water scarcity level for here to early risk and also warned that this situation could well escalate over the coming months. There is clearly a reason for them to have come out with such a statement but my question to you in response to that is, does this mean that SEPA are also worrying unnecessarily?
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
speckledjim
Tuesday, June 6, 2023 3:08:41 PM

I may well be worrying unnecessarily and I fully admit to that.

As I have said before though, I do sometimes do that. That may or may not be linked to my condition of Asperger Syndrome but either way, that is part of who I am and as such, is something which people on here are free to choose either to accept or not accept as they wish. If they choose not to accept that, that is their problem and not mines but there are a couple of points which I would like to add to that.

Under normal circumstances, Edinburgh Gogarbank would usually be slightly wetter than the botanic gardens in Edinburgh on average. During the first half of this year though, that hasn't actually been the case and in fact, the number of official rain days at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during the spring was actually slightly above the 1991-2020 spring average for that particular station.

That is something which surprised me quite a lot, especially when you consider how dry it has been recently. During this year so far, the overall rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank has been lower than what the total for the Royal Botanic Gardens and since Edinburgh Gogarbank is normally the wetter of those two stations on average, this means that the resulting deficit is actually much larger at Edinburgh Gogarbank than what it is at the botanic gardens at the moment.

Also and unlike at the Royal Botanic gardens, the number of official rain days during the spring was actually well below average.

My second point  comes from the fact that SEPA have raised the water scarcity level for here to early risk and also warned that this situation could well escalate over the coming months. There is clearly a reason for them to have come out with such a statement but my question to you in response to that is, does this mean that SEPA are also worrying unnecessarily?
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


I think they're being cautious. If we have a dry summer (like last year) then restrictions are likely so it's sensible for them to raise awareness for that. Of course no one knows what the summer will bring in terms of rainfall so we'll have to wait until September to assess the situation as it is then.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
johncs2016
Tuesday, June 6, 2023 3:37:57 PM

I think they're being cautious. If we have a dry summer (like last year) then restrictions are likely so it's sensible for them to raise awareness for that. Of course no one knows what the summer will bring in terms of rainfall so we'll have to wait until September to assess the situation as it is then.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 



Exactly, and that is all that I have been trying to be on this matter all along when I have been giving my own assessments on what I predict might or might not happen, so I will apologise now for appearing to be worrying unduly about that as that has never at any point in time, been my actual intention.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Crepuscular Ray
Tuesday, June 6, 2023 3:56:59 PM
My last rain was 15 days ago and we've had a very dry April (61%) and May (59%). Although no hosepipe ban yet, Scottish Water on the local news last night were urging people to be careful. I'm not sure the weekend showers in the south will get this far north either 🤔
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
johncs2016
Tuesday, June 6, 2023 4:18:15 PM

My last rain was 15 days ago and we've had a very dry April (61%) and May (59%). Although no hosepipe ban yet, Scottish Water on the local news last night were urging people to be careful. I'm not sure the weekend showers in the south will get this far north either 🤔

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



Even if they did, there would be no actual guarantee of us getting any of them as these types of events are always very much hit or miss affairs.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Retron
Tuesday, June 6, 2023 4:18:26 PM

I'm not sure the weekend showers in the south will get this far north either 🤔

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


I'm not sure they'll get this far north either! 😂

The Met Office have a completely dry outlook here right up until this time next week, by which time we'd be a month into the drought. Hopefully there'll be some rain, but I'm not going to get my hopes up... I wouldn't be at all surprised if it switches from dry and rather cool to dry, very warm and muggy!
Leysdown, north Kent
ARTzeman
Thursday, June 8, 2023 9:15:09 AM
This Summer- 2023 No Precipitation for 8 days.
  




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
Thursday, June 8, 2023 10:14:30 AM
We're about 3 weeks now without a drop of rainfall, a month since anything substantial.

Grass all around here, even big fields, is now very yellow in parts exposed to the sun and what is a very dry wind. The (generally grain/rape) crops in the fields in the area all *seem* lush, but that can hide a multitude of issues. 

We really need a bountiful harvest this year to take some of the pressure of prices. 

Whilst I'll enjoy the lovely weather, I would have preferred a more mixed period of weather with some [ideally midweek 😁] rainfall thrown in to keep soils moist. We're forecast for thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday (with more general showers also on Sunday) so I do hope this happens to give the ground and crops a soaking.





 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
scillydave
Thursday, June 8, 2023 10:46:12 AM
Definitely finally browning up around here as we approach the 1 month mark without rain. The showers for the weekend look hit and miss for here so we may well stay dry.
If that happens we may well get close to the 40 day mark without rain and that really would be significant for this area.

Feast or famine when it comes to rainfall at the moment it seems (or at least in my part of the world!)
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Retron
Friday, June 9, 2023 4:03:28 AM
It's interesting to see the "soil moisture change" charts - the drought is having a massive effect down here, with large areas of 4-6cm water loss per week. That's about the highest you'll ever see, coming as it does at the time of peak insolation. What I wouldn't give for a few days of what Italy (or the former Yugoslavia) is getting!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4.png 

 
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
Friday, June 9, 2023 5:19:27 AM

It's interesting to see the "soil moisture change" charts - the drought is having a massive effect down here, with large areas of 4-6cm water loss per week. That's about the highest you'll ever see, coming as it does at the time of peak insolation. What I wouldn't give for a few days of what Italy (or the former Yugoslavia) is getting!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4.png 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



It’s a similar picture here and looking at the model output I’m not convinced that we will see a significant amount of rain here by the end of the month. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Roger Parsons
Friday, June 9, 2023 5:43:16 AM

It’s a similar picture here and looking at the model output I’m not convinced that we will see a significant amount of rain here by the end of the month. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


You'll recall my earlier comment about the D-word, DrM. 😁 Dry conditions continue here, but with the cloud cover it has been decidedly cool at times - even to "hot-water-bottle level". We were planning to go on a "farm walk" tomorrow and I wonder what's in store for us. I suspect we are a bit far east for much thunderstorm risk as presently shown. Of course that could change.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Friday, June 9, 2023 6:01:11 AM
I thought my lawn had been holding up well, but it's gone from green to yellow in the space of a few days this week. Also I notice  out in the country that the ruts created in the wet weather up to mid-May have set quickly and are like concrete, no gentle degradation, so quite unpleasant to walk on.

MetO rainfall chart offers very little relief for much of the country, just a scattering of showers (heavy where they do occur) in quite a narrow band from the Mersey estuary down to London on Saturday, plus a few crossing Cornwall earlier. Then back to dry for everyone by early next week.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/uk-weather-map  
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Friday, June 9, 2023 7:45:47 AM


MetO rainfall chart offers very little relief for much of the country, just a scattering of showers (heavy where they do occur) in quite a narrow band from the Mersey estuary down to London on Saturday, plus a few crossing Cornwall earlier. Then back to dry for everyone by early next week.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/uk-weather-map  

Originally Posted by: DEW 



I bet it rains on my family bbq tomorrow night after weeks of dry weather!
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
The Beast from the East
Friday, June 9, 2023 8:34:04 AM

It's interesting to see the "soil moisture change" charts - the drought is having a massive effect down here, with large areas of 4-6cm water loss per week. That's about the highest you'll ever see, coming as it does at the time of peak insolation. What I wouldn't give for a few days of what Italy (or the former Yugoslavia) is getting!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4.png 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



My lawn is still green, though it seems to have stopped growing this week and starting to yellow in areas. Roses still coming through nicely even though I havent watered anything yet this year. Must still be enough moisture deeper in the ground from all that rain we had in April and early May
I'm glad I refused a water meter! My neighbours all have one now, I will resist until the deadline in 2025 - its compulsory here with East Surrey water
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
Friday, June 9, 2023 10:20:15 AM
The thundery showers forecast for here tomorrow over the past few days have now disappeared from the latest forecast. Still showing more generally showery conditions on Sunday.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
Friday, June 9, 2023 10:35:18 AM
The BBC app for me is promising, if that's the right term, a thunderstorm ⚡ bang on 2pm Sunday.
Another one an hour earlier on Monday.
Tomorrows rain is now no more with more or less wall to wall sunshine.
Oh and then dry for the foreseeable. Apart from 3 showers on the 18th June

The winds are much lighter though which is a small mercy.
Apps what would we do without them?
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Rob K
Friday, June 9, 2023 11:27:58 AM
Approaching four weeks with no rain in my area now. Last precipitation in Odiham was 3mm on 15 May. Same story where I am at the moment in North Devon. A few other stations around the country eg Manston and Charlwood have been dry since 13 May.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
Friday, June 9, 2023 11:33:16 AM

Approaching four weeks with no rain in my area now. Last precipitation in Odiham was 3mm on 15 May. Same story where I am at the moment in North Devon. A few other stations around the country eg Manston and Charlwood have been dry since 13 May.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It will replenish soon enough, don't worry!
6z GFS looks considerably cooler and more unsettled moving into mid-June.
There will be plenty of rain at some stage!
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
fairweather
Friday, June 9, 2023 2:22:03 PM

It will replenish soon enough, don't worry!
6z GFS looks considerably cooler and more unsettled moving into mid-June.
There will be plenty of rain at some stage!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Not looking likely in the short term. After a record breaking lack of rainfall last year followed by an average winter we are well into another serious drought now. Last rain here was on May 11the and there is none in the medium/long term forecasts to speak of for the South East.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
moomin75
Friday, June 9, 2023 2:40:23 PM

Not looking likely in the short term. After a record breaking lack of rainfall last year followed by an average winter we are well into another serious drought now. Last rain here was on May 11the and there is none in the medium/long term forecasts to speak of for the South East.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Nothing imminent I agree, but worth keeping a close eye on GFS as that model is considerably more unsettled than the other big 3.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Crepuscular Ray
Friday, June 9, 2023 6:32:53 PM
18 days without rain in Edinburgh. Not sure the showers will develop here with an easterly drift
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
johncs2016
Friday, June 9, 2023 9:40:28 PM

18 days without rain in Edinburgh. Not sure the showers will develop here with an easterly drift

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



I can remember a time when we used to have thick east coast haar from those easterlies with even that, not managing to prevent torrential rain and/or thunderstorms from reaching us from the south.

I don't think there would be much chance of that sort of thing happening nowadays.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, June 10, 2023 7:24:14 AM
Concerns over Loch Ness' falling water levels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-65855228 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
johncs2016
Saturday, June 10, 2023 8:56:30 AM

Concerns over Loch Ness' falling water levels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-65855228 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



According to SEPA's latest water scarcity report (as issued on 8 June 2023), that small part of NW Scotland which was already at moderate scarcity level, is now at significant scarcity level.

In addition to that, the area around Loch Ness and Inverness is not at moderate water scarcity level according to SEPA, along with a small part of the Scottish Borders/Dumfries and Galloway.

For everywhere else, most areas have now been upgraded to alert level for water scarcity with the exception of parts of the west coast, NE Scotland and even the Orkney Isles which are now on early warning status for water scarcity.

This then leaves the Shetland Isles as the only remaining part of Scotland which is still at normal levels as regards to water scarcity.

This report can be read from here .

Given that we are still very early in the summer, this is very concerning indeed when you consider that there are still not too many signs of much in the way of significant rainfall in the latest model output.

As things stand, my own fears about the eventual outcome of all of this continue to be on course to end up being realised in the end, and I have a hunch from this that I might not actually be worrying unduly about that as what some members on here might be thinking at the moment.


 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
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