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johncs2016
Saturday, August 5, 2023 2:34:37 PM
Here in Edinburgh and despite comments made on here yesterday about the models suggesting that virtually the whole of Britain would be covered in rainfall today, we have had nothing other than a couple of showers which have done nothing other than slightly dampen the ground a bit for a short while.

This means that we have had zero rainfall here with yet another major system failing to deliver a single bit of recorded rainfall whilst other parts of the country get some very high totals once again, and we have even had a bit of sunshine at times as well.

So much then, for the whole of Britain going to be covered in rainfall because the fact that this rainfall has once again refused to fall here, shows that this has not actually been the case and this is yet another example of why we continue to stuck with a water scarcity situation in place by SEPA even whilst other parts of the UK have been flooded out.

I actually knew that this would end up happening because I have seen it happen so many times before in recent times that Edinburgh has already started to dry out before everywhere else, regardless of how "unsettled" the synoptic situation at the time actually is. That is why I wouldn't even have done anything wrong by rubbishing those maps which were posted on here yesterday by certain members of this forum in defence of what the models were suggesting at that time because to me, the models are a complete waste of time a lot of the time anyway.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Jiries
Saturday, August 5, 2023 3:52:18 PM

I saw masses of butterflies down by the local lake the other day - mostly gatekeepers but also some green-veined whites and red admirals. The gatekeepers were absolutely swarming on the thistle flowers, taking advantage of a rare spell of sunshine.

Meanwhile this morning my car thermometer was registering 11C shortly before midday in Surrey. Not very good for the first week of August!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



That really cold despite the false high SSTs, extreme heat nearby but still get cold temperatures.    That 13C below average for Surrey and just now got Amazon parcel in and as opened the door, really biting cold winds for early August.   If was Jan it would be around -3 to -4C.
doctormog
Saturday, August 5, 2023 3:53:02 PM

That really cold despite the false high SSTs, extreme heat nearby but still get cold temperatures.    That 13C below average for Surrey and just now got Amazon parcel in and as opened the door, really biting cold winds for early August.   If was Jan it would be around -3 to -4C.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Why do you describe the high SSTs as “false”?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jiries
Saturday, August 5, 2023 4:00:44 PM

Why do you describe the high SSTs as “false”?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



High SSTs would prevent temperatures fallen more than 10C below average, like in winter most SSTs around 6C to 9C but doesn't give us easily subzero maxes.   I know that most time when it rain the rain water normally same as SST current temperatures. 
Retron
Saturday, August 5, 2023 4:02:42 PM

Why do you describe the high SSTs as “false”?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


...and if you think that's bad, don't show this to Jiries! We're seeing the highest NH temperatures in the satellite era (which goes back to 1979). And it's not a tiny bit warmer either, like the seas it's well above normal.

We've dodged a bullet, frankly, but I bet our luck won't hold next year.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/ 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/nh.png UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
Saturday, August 5, 2023 4:09:30 PM

High SSTs would prevent temperatures fallen more than 10C below average, like in winter most SSTs around 6C to 9C but doesn't give us easily subzero maxes.   I know that most time when it rain the rain water normally same as SST current temperatures. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



So basically they’re not “false” then? High SSTs in the location where they are actually high will not prevent the current position of the jet stream nor the lower than average temperatures - not by more than 10°C, perhaps a notable 8°C or so in a few places although there is still time for some late maxima to be set.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
johncs2016
Saturday, August 5, 2023 4:21:06 PM

High SSTs would prevent temperatures fallen more than 10C below average, like in winter most SSTs around 6C to 9C but doesn't give us easily subzero maxes.   I know that most time when it rain the rain water normally same as SST current temperatures. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



It seems as though SST's don't necessarily have the effect that a lot of people would expect them to have.

Back in 2015 when the Atlantic Ocean was colder than average, a lot of people thought that this would increase our chances of getting a cold winter.

That of course, didn't happen and what we got instead was a really wet, stormy and mild winter in 2015/16 which began with our mildest December on record although the more dominant factor in that is thought to have been the super El-Nino which was going on in the more distant Equatorial Pacific Ocean at the time.

It looks as though this summer may well have given us pretty much the opposite scenario to that because we have had some much warmer than SSTs in the Atlantic during this summer, especially to begin with. In addition to that, we also had a decent start to this summer and at that time, a lot of people thought that the high SSTs might increase our chances of seeing more heat records being broken, just like last year.

Of course, that didn't happen in the end. Instead of that, this summer ended up going completely down the toilet pan, especially when we got into July and despite those higher SSTs still being there to a certain extent, some places are still managing to record some really cool temperatures for the time of year, thus once again showing us that higher or lower SSTs aren't necessarily going to have the effect on our actual temperatures which a lot of people might think.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Chunky Pea
Saturday, August 5, 2023 10:36:17 PM

It seems as though SST's don't necessarily have the effect that a lot of people would expect them to have.

Back in 2015 when the Atlantic Ocean was colder than average, a lot of people thought that this would increase our chances of getting a cold winter.

That of course, didn't happen and what we got instead was a really wet, stormy and mild winter in 2015/16 which began with our mildest December on record although the more dominant factor in that is thought to have been the super El-Nino which was going on in the more distant Equatorial Pacific Ocean at the time.

It looks as though this summer may well have given us pretty much the opposite scenario to that because we have had some much warmer than SSTs in the Atlantic during this summer, especially to begin with. In addition to that, we also had a decent start to this summer and at that time, a lot of people thought that the high SSTs might increase our chances of seeing more heat records being broken, just like last year.

Of course, that didn't happen in the end. Instead of that, this summer ended up going completely down the toilet pan, especially when we got into July and despite those higher SSTs still being there to a certain extent, some places are still managing to record some really cool temperatures for the time of year, thus once again showing us that higher or lower SSTs aren't necessarily going to have the effect on our actual temperatures which a lot of people might think.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


I can't speak for the UK, but those cool ssts in 2015 brought mostly cooler than average temps here on the Atlantic's edge while they lasted. 

I agree though that cooler Atlantic temps tend to bring in stormier weather in general. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
johncs2016
Saturday, August 5, 2023 11:53:33 PM

I can't speak for the UK, but those cool ssts in 2015 brought mostly cooler than average temps here on the Atlantic's edge while they lasted. 

I agree though that cooler Atlantic temps tend to bring in stormier weather in general. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



That's interesting because I had thought that it was the super El Nino event at the time which had led to that really stormy weather in the winter of 2015/16 rather than the cool Atlantic SSTs.

Nevertheless, this summer started off with those really warm SSTs on this side of the Atlantic whilst we were enjoying that decent start to the summer. Over time, the SSTs on this side of the Atlantic have cooled down a bit (albeit only to somewhere which is still average or slightly above average) with those really warm SSTs transferring over towards Canada.

This in turn has also coincided with the deterioration of the overall weather pattern which has resulted in this summer going really downhill. With that in mind, I'm wondering whether or not, that cooling of this side of the Atlantic might have at the very least, might have played a major part of how and Storm Antoni was formed.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
richardabdn
Sunday, August 6, 2023 9:59:22 AM
The horrific start to August continues with another totally rank Sunday from this year of grim grey and depressing Sundays like no other.

Just how much more of these hideous endurance test conditions can anyone be expected to take? It's just the same mind numbing beyond boring, ugly depressing crap day after day. No variation or element of changeability. It's so demoralising and keeps on getting worse and worse against any reasonable expectations.

Absolutely horrendous mass of grey filth sitting over us yet again with a vile northerly wind and a pitiful 14 degrees. The sick joke is that the sky is clear all the way from the Moray Firth to Orkney but this pointless garbage just sits there ruining yet another day 🤬

Not a single day since Wednesday has managed 3 hours of sun and only 12 days since 11th July have. Four days since the 13th July have reached average temperatures and there's been only four completely dry days since 9th July. Pressure is running lower for July/August than the record low in the infamous summer of 1879. The warmest period of the year once again reduced to a ruinous write-off 🤢🤢🤢

 
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
cultman1
Tuesday, August 8, 2023 6:53:01 PM
Unbelievably awful weather here in Fulham today Tuesday August 8th  constant drizzlesince 7 am, heavy dark grey skies, and maximum temperature of 16 degrees. I really have never known such an awful run of dreadful depressing temperatures, total lack of sun, (averaged out) over the last 7 weeks with no end in sight or a break in the weather pattern. Even the promised 2 days from tomorrow have been downgraded by The Met Office and The BBC Weather Forecasting..
I think this summer will cascade straight into autumn with a contnuing lack of warmth, sun, and dry weather. With high pressure seemingly stuck over Greenland and the jet stream stubbonly remaining south of the UK for the  foreseeable, I  see no proper change to even a medium run of settled weather in our current' stuck in a grove pattern'. So depressing... I would love to be proven wrong?
Saint Snow
Tuesday, August 8, 2023 8:30:10 PM
We had that in NW England from late June. 

Last few days not that bad, though. Once the rain cleared through on Sat, was a pleasant evening. Sunday & Monday dry & sunny, today nice apart from early and a bit of drizzle briefly late morning. 

One consistent theme, though, is crap temps. 18/19 feels very autumnal. In early August, it's pathetic. 

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Leo28
Wednesday, August 9, 2023 5:22:04 AM
Cloudy again this morning and still damp underfoot due to higher humidity, hopefully warmer today with a bit
of sunshine. I think we will get better weather in September, maybe an Indian summer.
johncs2016
Wednesday, August 9, 2023 8:14:48 AM

Cloudy again this morning and still damp underfoot due to higher humidity, hopefully warmer today with a bit
of sunshine. I think we will get better weather in September, maybe an Indian summer.

Originally Posted by: Leo28 



That wouldn't surprise me one single bit, and I've lost track of the number of times that August has been poor, only for September to deliver what we should had in August.

We had the opposite scenario of that last winter as well because February was a mild and snowless month here, only for it to turn colder in March (by which time, it was too late for that in my books as we were then into meteorological spring) with some snow at times, especially in the earlier part of that month.

However, we have a warmer couple of days coming up (though this is not likely to be enough to get the temperature in SE England up to 30°C or higher) and if the latest model output is correct, there is a good chance that this month won't be as bad overall as what July was although there are also no signs of any significant and/or prolonged proper summer weather either.

This month isn't turning out to be as wet here as it had looked as though it would be at one point in time which means that when you add all of that up, this could actually end up being no worse than an average summer here in the end, rather than one which is particularly poor, although that is very heavily skewed by what happened back in June.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
richardabdn
Wednesday, August 9, 2023 5:04:44 PM
Once again the only thing of a lower standard than the utterly rank weather is the shocking forecasts. The only profession where you can be wrong all the time and suffer no consequences 🤬

Forecast to be a decent sunny day and what did we get? More disgusting, grey, windy, NW'ly garbage🤯

Cleared up for a while and looked like it was going to turn into a lovely afternoon but no. Within an hour it had filled in with 💩again and there's been no sun ever since. Not even a glimpse. Just how can they get it so wrong? Forecasts at 24hrs were more accurate in the 80s.

NW proving the worst direction again. If it had cleared up from an E/SE wind at noon the filth wouldn't have formed again until evening leaving a good afternoon. Can't even get that under a revolting NW flow.

Will this insufferable, demoralising hell ever end? 😩

The pressure has not reached 1020mb the entirety of July and August to date which must be without precedent. Average pressure is continuing to run lower than the 1879 record low 🤮
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
+1
Bolty
Thursday, August 10, 2023 1:46:24 PM
Nice to see that warm, dry and sunny weather does still exist. It's been a very good late summer's week so far.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Retron
Thursday, August 10, 2023 1:51:18 PM
Back to the usual dross today: no wind to speak of, 27C, humid and absolutely boiling upstairs (30C, even with the windows open). It's going to suck trying to sleep tonight... 🥵
Leysdown, north Kent
richardabdn
Thursday, August 10, 2023 4:49:47 PM
Went out in to the garden after work and fell asleep in lovely warm sunshine and blue skies only to wake up back in the hell of repulsive grey overcast. The sky completely filled with filth again in less than half an hour 🤬🤬🤬

It's just beyond a joke. There is no longer the familiar days of summer when the sun went in and out of cumulus all day. Now any cloud appears and that's it. The sky fills with an ugly grey mess and no more sun. The same as winter 🙄

Also it looks as though Tuesday will end up the sunniest day of the week despite being the coolest. Again this is typical only of winter. I cannot recall this happening in any other season but now it's becoming the norm as anything warm is poisoned by ridiculous amounts of cloud 🤢

Furthermore, the North Highlands and Orkney have had the best weather in Scotland today. Always used to be the south and east that got that but that's a rarity if that happens these days 😒
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
doctormog
Thursday, August 10, 2023 5:23:44 PM
It has been a lovely warm and largely sunny day here and yes it clouded over for an hour or so but the skies are clearing again and it’s still pleasantly warm. Off to the garden for a drink. 😎Tomorrow is also forecast to be warmer than today. It’s been a long wait but today’s weather has been very welcome.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Bolty
Thursday, August 10, 2023 7:16:35 PM
Looking ahead, it looks like we're going back into another dry spell again. There's really not much rain showing in the forecast around here (apart from a few shower symbols) in the week ahead, and it feels very strange after the total deluge we had in July.

These rapid flips between very wet and bone dry are very strange and interesting. They've been a real feature of this decade so far.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Ally Pally Snowman
Thursday, August 10, 2023 7:33:52 PM
Plenty of 28s today spread around the country.  First 28c since 8th July. Such a poor heart of summer.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
LeedsLad123
Thursday, August 10, 2023 7:44:22 PM

Looking ahead, it looks like we're going back into another dry spell again. There's really not much rain showing in the forecast around here (apart from a few shower symbols) in the week ahead, and it feels very strange after the total deluge we had in July.

These rapid flips between very wet and bone dry are very strange and interesting. They've been a real feature of this decade so far.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


The forecast is decent enough - not a single day below 20C which is what I like to see in August. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Bolty
Thursday, August 10, 2023 7:54:06 PM

The forecast is decent enough - not a single day below 20C which is what I like to see in August. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 



Indeed. A decent August should at least cement this as a half decent summer (2/3 good months is fine). Hopefully a nice September too! 😎
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Crepuscular Ray
Friday, August 11, 2023 7:02:55 AM
We had a cloudy day yesterday with only the odd glimmer of sun, disappointing for the Festival Tourists. It stayed dry until we were rained on coming home from a show. We reached 23 C despite the cloud but not the day that was forecast ☹️
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Jiries
Friday, August 11, 2023 2:59:31 PM

Plenty of 28s today spread around the country.  First 28c since 8th July. Such a poor heart of summer.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes it was very poor summer and now August trying to recover it some back of our summer  Best thing now is stay on the warm side to October for heating costs stay off, last year put on in end of Sept was it wasn't a warm month  Today was pleasant but warm winds, 23C and nice 25.5 indoors with all window vents opened.
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