I missed the deadline by 12 hours and don't know if I'm allowed in this month, with penalty, despite grovelling.
Shame 'cos I was desperate to get involved in this again.
Live n' learn😚

There has always been a little leeway for the odd occasion. And, when GW ran it, there was a mechanism of mildly handicapping any late entrants.

I've taken part in every single annual comp so far, and forgot this month (was my birthday Monday so I'm blaming that!!) until the following morning. So hope a little leniency is shown by Frank 😳

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The submission of predictions this month has been disappointing with 9 of the 35 entries received after the deadline.
It comes at a time of a switch in the models to a less cold forecast.
Around half the entries were received on Jan 31 with a median prediction of 4.8c
Of the late entries received after yesterday's 00z run the median prediction was 5.5c

I'm considering imposing penalties on some of the late entries this month as GW did in a similar situation in September 2001 in order to be fair to all those who met the deadline.

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Around half the entries were received on Jan 31 with a median prediction of 4.8c
Of the late entries received after yesterday's 00z run the median prediction was 5.5c

It's your competition and therefore your rules, although if there is an average 0.7c increase after models changed, then seems reasonable to make that the late penalty amount.
 

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Aren't we all taking this a tad too seriously?

😄

FWIW, only one model was ever suggesting it might turn colder, and only for a fairly brief flurry of runs. Those that submitted their entries a day or two earlier will presumably have gone mild.

On the 1st, GFS was still showing the cold set-up; the 0z was a peach IIRC. That was the latest GFS run available when I submitted my entry first thing Wednesday morning.

Don't think anyone really fully bought into the GFS evolution anyway.

 

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The submission of predictions this month has been disappointing with 9 of the 35 entries received after the deadline.
It comes at a time of a switch in the models to a less cold forecast.
Around half the entries were received on Jan 31 with a median prediction of 4.8c
Of the late entries received after yesterday's 00z run the median prediction was 5.5c

I'm considering imposing penalties on some of the late entries this month as GW did in a similar situation in September 2001 in order to be fair to all those who met the deadline.

When Global Warming was running the comp he laid out the rules governing late or missing estimates  each January prior to the new year's entries. On the basis that silence means acquiescence this is what we agreed to

"The deadline for predictions is 2359 on the last day of the preceding month (so for January it is 31 Dec at 2359).
Entries after 2359 on the final day of the month will only be accepted at my discretion if I consider there is a reasonable excuse. No entries will be accepted after the 2nd of the month. There is a penalty of 0.2C for each day that a prediction is late."

So why don't we just do that ?

 

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Metcheck                8.20c            Anomaly           4.00c
Netweather             8.53c            Anomaly           4.53c
Peasedown St John   8.53c          Anomaly          2.43c. 

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I have read the various posts above and the PMs I have received on the issue of this month's predictions.

Like it or not the models do influence the predictions as shown by the difference I identified between submissions on the 31st and 1st. In fact those who submitted predictions before the 31st averaged over 6c.
We are all aware of the deadlines and whilst most late entries are due to forgetfulness, you need to be aware that a late entry is always liable to be hit with a penalty.
Therefore in order to maintain the integrity of the competition and be fair and reasonable to all I have decided:

Of the 9 late entries, one will be penalty free as it was only 13 minutes late.
Two (bennyboy and bertwhistle) came in with predictions lower than the Jan 31st median and will just be given a 0.2c penalty for lateness.
Six (Moomin75, Saint Snow, Gusty, Redmoons, Hungry Tiger and Jacee) came in with far higher predictions and will be given a total penalty of 0.7c. Although Jacee's prediction was only 4.9c she was also late last month and has yet to submit a prediction on time.

February predictions will follow in a separate post.


 

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The submission of predictions this month has been disappointing with 9 of the 35 entries received after the deadline.
It comes at a time of a switch in the models to a less cold forecast.
Around half the entries were received on Jan 31 with a median prediction of 4.8c
Of the late entries received after yesterday's 00z run the median prediction was 5.5c

I'm considering imposing penalties on some of the late entries this month as GW did in a similar situation in September 2001 in order to be fair to all those who met the deadline.

Shows how useless I am at reading the models. My prediction was late and I went lower!🤣

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February predictions 

norseman         7.25
caz                    6.80
bolty                 6.70
redmoons         6.55
hippydave        6.40
windywillow     6.30
lanky                6.22
Gavin D            6.20
artzeman          6.10
hungry tiger     6.00
tierradelfuego  6.00
rickm                5.85
gusty                5.70
grandad           5.70
kendalian         5.60
moomin75       5.50
dingle rob        5.50
saint snow        5.40
snowshoe        5.25
taylor1740       5.20
stomchaser      4.97
whether idle    4.93
jacee                4.90
scillydave         4.85
sussex snow magnet 4.80
sswd                4.80
surreyjohn       4.72
jmm2005         4.50
gezm                4.50
bennyboy         4.45
ap snowman    4.40
col                   4.35
frank h             3.90
jerry p              3.85
bertwhistle       3.32

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I 
Two (bennyboy and bertwhistle) came in with predictions lower than the Jan 31st median and will just be given a 0.2c penalty for lateness.
Six (Moomin75, Saint Snow, Gusty, Redmoons, Hungry Tiger and Jacee) came in with far higher predictions and will be given a total penalty of 0.7c. 
 

🤣

That's ridiculous.

I can honestly say it never influenced me - I still factored a cold spell in, just as I did in January. I'm at exactly the mid-point of all entries.

It really is ludicrous to penalise different late entries with different severity just because their entries were of different values to some other late entries. You either apply a uniform penalty or none. The penalty is also way, way higher than any previous penalty (see Lanky's post)


It also ruins the entire year's competition for those as well. I just see it as a bit of fun, but I do want to try and win. This basically obliterates any chances and removes the incentive to carry on.

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February predictions 

norseman         7.25
caz                    6.80
bolty                 6.70
redmoons         6.55
hippydave        6.40
windywillow     6.30
lanky                6.22
Gavin D            6.20
artzeman          6.10
hungry tiger     6.00
tierradelfuego  6.00
rickm                5.85
gusty                5.70
grandad           5.70
kendalian         5.60
moomin75       5.50
dingle rob        5.50
saint snow        5.40
snowshoe        5.25
taylor1740       5.20
stomchaser      4.97
whether idle    4.93
jacee                4.90
scillydave         4.85
sussex snow magnet 4.80
sswd                4.80
surreyjohn       4.72
jmm2005         4.50
gezm                4.50
bennyboy         4.45
ap snowman    4.40
col                   4.35
frank h             3.90
jerry p              3.85
bertwhistle       3.32

Great stuff, thanks Frank.

A lot of predictions for a very mild month. I don't think the output is exactly screaming 6c+ to me but we shall see.

And just to add that I agree with the penalties for late entries.

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And just to add that I agree with the penalties for late entries.

Of course you do. Cos you're a cock.

 

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This is Frank's competition now and we fall in with his rules.  If you get your prediction in on time then there is no issue. Some childish comments in here today which are uncalled for.  

Some people need to think a bit more before they post.

WI
 

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I have read the various posts above and the PMs I have received on the issue of this month's predictions.

Like it or not the models do influence the predictions as shown by the difference I identified between submissions on the 31st and 1st. In fact those who submitted predictions before the 31st averaged over 6c.
We are all aware of the deadlines and whilst most late entries are due to forgetfulness, you need to be aware that a late entry is always liable to be hit with a penalty.
Therefore in order to maintain the integrity of the competition and be fair and reasonable to all I have decided:

Of the 9 late entries, one will be penalty free as it was only 13 minutes late.
Two (bennyboy and bertwhistle) came in with predictions lower than the Jan 31st median and will just be given a 0.2c penalty for lateness.
Six (Moomin75, Saint Snow, Gusty, Redmoons, Hungry Tiger and Jacee) came in with far higher predictions and will be given a total penalty of 0.7c. Although Jacee's prediction was only 4.9c she was also late last month and has yet to submit a prediction on time.

February predictions will follow in a separate post.


 

Fair enough - My own fault.

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This is Frank's competition now and we fall in with his rules.  If you get your prediction in on time then there is no issue. Some childish comments in here today which are uncalled for.  

Some people need to think a bit more before they post.

WI
 

If I come across anything uncalled for they'll be warnings. I put my forecast in late - It was my own fault and I've accepted that.
 

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IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 

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Hadley

8.0c to the 2nd

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
3.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Of course you do. Cos you're a cock.

 

😂

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You probably did the right thing Caz. I'm expecting that there will be several people who adjusted their predictions downwards late on because of what GFS Ops runs were showing (including myself). This is currently looking like a red herring. 

The models always seem to blow a fuse at month end.  It’s as if they want to throw the CET predictions wild.  🙄

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This is Frank's competition now and we fall in with his rules.  If you get your prediction in on time then there is no issue. Some childish comments in here today which are uncalled for.  

Some people need to think a bit more before they post.

WI
 

I agree we should fall inline with the rules that Frank lays down as they’re fair. I think the posts you’re referring to are made, and taken, in jest though, unless some have been deleted. We’ve always been friendly and jokey on these CET threads and I don’t think that’s changed. 😊

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