Please pm your February prediction to me by midnight on 31st January.

I will post my own prediction directly onto the thread.

Some background information:

Average 1991 -20 = 5.0c

Warmest this century 2002 = 7.0c  

Coldest this century 2010 = 2.9c

Last 5 years:
2018 = 3.1c
2019 = 6.9c
2020 = 6.4c
2021 = 5.3c
2022 = 6.9c 

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First 2 weeks of February looking mild but then perhaps a decent ish chance of a Scandi high. Hard to factor that into a guess though as there is very little sign of it atm. 

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I can't remember the last time we had a great Feb - or even a great spell in Feb (at least a week of cold and snowy). Certainly no decent snowfall (10cm+)

We've had such spells in December, January & March this century, but not Feb.

 

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I can't remember the last time we had a great Feb - or even a great spell in Feb (at least a week of cold and snowy). Certainly no decent snowfall (10cm+)

We've had such spells in December, January & March this century, but not Feb.

 

February 2021 was decent here only 3cm snow, but better further east parts of Essex and Suffolk got 10cm +. Hung around for a few days aswell.

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SS they were possibly damp squibs in your area being primarily easterly driven events but in my area
early Feb 2009 and 2012, the end of Feb going into March 2018 and the second week of Feb 2021 all delivered some decent cold and /or snow. 
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Yes, I really can't see this being anything other than another very mild and probably wet February. For cold lovers, the only prospect for cold and/or snow will probably come from a brief toppler, or if high pressure over Europe manages to ridge a bit further north for a time. I think a CET in the 6s is quite likely.

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February 2021 was decent here only 3cm snow, but better further east parts of Essex and Suffolk got 10cm +. Hung around for a few days aswell.

It surprises me how mild February 2021 actually ended up. The second week of that month was really quite cold, at least around here (or where I lived at the time). I think it was the final week which was exceptionally mild that did it.

Interestingly, I remember the opening days of the month when that easterly was first being modelled, as there was a real possibility that it would persist for some time. There was a lot of talk about it possibly being the coldest February since 1986, in fact. All that and it ended up milder than average...

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Yes, I really can't see this being anything other than another very mild and probably wet February. For cold lovers, the only prospect for cold and/or snow will probably come from a brief toppler, or if high pressure over Europe manages to ridge a bit further north for a time. I think a CET in the 6s is quite likely.

yes February is a predictable underperformer when it comes to Winter weather, a bit like August has been for Summer until last year.

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Tonight's ECM only makes the February guess harder. Will there be an easterly? Impossible to call.
 

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I can't remember the last time we had a great Feb - or even a great spell in Feb (at least a week of cold and snowy). Certainly no decent snowfall (10cm+)

We've had such spells in December, January & March this century, but not Feb.

 

Last proper snowfall I can remember in this area was 5/6 Feb 1996

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I can't remember the last time we had a great Feb - or even a great spell in Feb (at least a week of cold and snowy). Certainly no decent snowfall (10cm+)

We've had such spells in December, January & March this century, but not Feb.

 

Feb 2009 had about about 10cm here that lasted for a week. 

Feb 2012 as well - about 15cm fell, with a significant thaw the following day, and the remaining snow sticking around for about a week. 

The Februaries of 2005, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2020 and 2021 all had decent snowfalls, but not long lasting (melting the next day in most cases). And of course Feb 2018, but that was only the last 2 days so hardly counts.

 

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This morning's GFS puts the cat amongst the pigeons.  Exceptionally difficult guess this month.
 

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This isn't easy but the clock is ticking.
I'll go for 3.9c

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Sod’s Law!  I made my guess yesterday and the models flip today!  So it’s looking like I went too high.  Still time to change but my policy is to stick to my first thoughts. 🙄

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Just remembered to do this, with just 95 minutes spare

Complete guesswork for me on how February will end up so the prediction table will be interesting 

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Just stickied it for you Frank.
 

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 Metcheck                  7.31c           Anomaly         1.11c
 Netweather               7.97c           Anomaly         3.78
Peasedown  St John  7.83c           Anomaly         1.73c.  

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Sod’s Law!  I made my guess yesterday and the models flip today!  So it’s looking like I went too high.  Still time to change but my policy is to stick to my first thoughts. 🙄

You probably did the right thing Caz. I'm expecting that there will be several people who adjusted their predictions downwards late on because of what GFS Ops runs were showing (including myself). This is currently looking like a red herring. 

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Hadley

7.4c to the 1st

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

I missed the deadline by 12 hours and don't know if I'm allowed in this month, with penalty, despite grovelling.
Shame 'cos I was desperate to get involved in this again.
Live n' learn😚

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