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Jacee
02 January 2023 11:14:21
Yes you do feel like you're clutching at straws sometimes when any potential, however feeble, frustratingly remains in the 'day ten and beyond' timeframe. I note the highlighting of this weekend's low pressure which is modelled to be deeper on the GFS 06z compared to the ECM which has the centre(s) further north). Either way it looks like a wet and windy weekend for many but nothing too untoward.

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UserPostedImage

FI takes us to mid-month and in terms of potential it still looks like of the 'weak polar maritime' type meaning much of any wintriness tends to be restricted to the favoured 'northern hills', not withstanding any sharper feature that could bring something more transient to a wider area of course.

Still not seeing much in the way of Scandinavian high pressure though. What has been modelled seems too weak to provide any meaningful cold to the UK with heights sinking south and east into eastern Europe as the jet remains strong and based over or to the south of the UK.

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Taking that into account, the outlook remains unsettled with the mildest (and I suppose driest) weather the further south and east you are and the colder and wetter (and occasionally wintry) weather further north and west. Standard UK winter weather fare?

A SSW could shake things up in the longer term but again I'm not seeing anything of significance there yet. In any case such impacts would take some time to affect us - beneficially or otherwise - and we'd likely be at the end of January or even into February by then.
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
UncleAlbert
02 January 2023 11:23:56
Best wishes for 2023 to all. 
After a mild peak in a few days time, it does look somewhat stormy for a while.  After this we seem to be looking at a period of temps fluctuating between mild and maybe a little below average, still unsettled  (typical January really).  Then we have a little more interest after about 11 days as the 0000hrs GFES 850mb showed.  There is a much more of a definite spread and by the end, around half of the suite is below -5.  Looking at the postage stamps around that period, maybe a tendency then for a little more amplification with one option for this demonstrated by the 0600hrs OP.  Have to stress the  ECM en's are not so keen on this.  I think cautious hopefulness is my best sentiment from a cold perspective.



https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20230102/00/t850Somerset.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_336_1.png 
 
pdazz
02 January 2023 20:43:17
Great post Jacee,

Interestingly today's 120hr Met Fax charts show HP developing to the NE, although may come to nothing!
Brian Gaze
02 January 2023 21:08:31
Not really sure what some people are seeing at the moment with SSWs.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Jacee
02 January 2023 21:24:12

Great post Jacee,

Interestingly today's 120hr Met Fax charts show HP developing to the NE, although may come to nothing!

Originally Posted by: pdazz 



That'll be the same one modelled on the ECM 12z for example. Our deep weekend low racing in on the strong jet helps quash it away from Scandinavia and further south and east into eastern Europe by day 7. It's a sinker, unfortunately.

Also to Brian I agree with the tweet you link to (I assume it was yourself who posted it) 😊 I mentioned earlier that I couldn't see anything significant with regards to SSWs, though I note their potential for wintry pattern changes. I guess that's where the interest comes from for people! I definitely intend to read up more on them though.
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
Brian Gaze
02 January 2023 22:01:48



Also to Brian I agree with the tweet you link to (I assume it was yourself who posted it) 😊 I mentioned earlier that I couldn't see anything significant with regards to SSWs, though I note their potential for wintry pattern changes. I guess that's where the interest comes from for people! I definitely intend to read up more on them though.

Originally Posted by: Jacee 



👍 Yes it was me.

PS: I've added 10hPa GFS wind speed and direction charts here: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=18&charthour=42&chartname=arctic10wind&chartregion=nh&charttag=Strat%2010hPa%20wind 

I'll try and add GEFS ones tomorrow.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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ballamar
02 January 2023 23:11:01
That GFS op run certainly looks about as desperate as possible looking for another decent cold spell! All about lowering heights to the south until that happens…..
Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2023 08:19:17
Looking mild / very mild next 10 days. After that who knows but significant cold looks unlikely. I went for 5.3c for my January cet guess, atm that looks to low.



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Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 January 2023 08:19:33
Wx temp charts show a large area of very cold air Russia in week 1 with a steep temp gradient to W Europe which remains well above seasonal norm. But as so often in the last few weeks, it fades, leaving the 0C isotherm in place E of Poland and W Europe mild, even warm around the Balkans. Pptn in week 1 for Atlantic coasts from France to S Norway plus some in the Baltic; in week 2 shifting N-wards but not clearing Scotland.

For Britain, MetO pptn for this week concentrated with the LP centre near Scotland and trailing fronts persisting over S England.

GFS Op provides W-lies for all this week; one of the Atlantic LPs deepens Sun 8th 955mb Rockall with small intense secondary near Cornwall (see Zubzero's post above); this moves away but is replaced by another 980mb N Scotland Thu 12th. Although pressure rises to the S, the W-lies keep going throughout. The extreme Urals HP at 1060mb fades away from Sun 15th but unlike yesterday's chart does not extend a ridge to Scandinavia so any hint of an E-ly has gone.

ECM similar to GFS but the second LP is tracked across England 990mb Wed 11th

GEFS temps up and down but trend is for above norm at first, cooler later but plenty of variation developing, rain from time to time in most places, heaviest in west.



 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
03 January 2023 09:25:05
If GFS is correct for Sunday morning then I would imagine warnings aplenty for wind. Certainly looking lively
Brian Gaze
03 January 2023 09:29:58
UK Met doesn't look bad for Sunday morning  so I think we need to wait a while yet.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
03 January 2023 09:32:17
MOGREPS-G also less interested than GFS. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we get hit by a nasty storm sooner or later. If we keep rolling the dice the ingredients will eventually mix correctly. 

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Rob K
03 January 2023 09:42:37
Morning all, my first post of 2023. The GFS op run looks uninspiring but the GEFS does show a steady decline in temperature out to the middle of the month and corresponding increase in snow rows. Still not much sign of a big freeze any time soon though. 

(PS I seem to be unable to log in on my laptop as the signin form doesn’t allow spaces in usernames!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
03 January 2023 09:45:59

Morning all, my first post of 2023. The GFS op run looks uninspiring but the GEFS does show a steady decline in temperature out to the middle of the month and corresponding increase in snow rows. Still not much sign of a big freeze any time soon though. 

(PS I seem to be unable to log in on my laptop as the signin form doesn’t allow spaces in usernames!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I've got a space in my username.  Are you using Safari?
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Rob K
03 January 2023 09:56:53

I've got a space in my username.  Are you using Safari?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Responded in the Forum Arms, I am using Edge.

Just to keep this post on topic, there are some tentative signs in the GEFS of pressure wanting to rise over Scandinavia by mid month but all options are definitely on the table still!

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Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
03 January 2023 10:04:19

UK Met doesn't look bad for Sunday morning  so I think we need to wait a while yet.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The possibility of one or two severe end storms was there a week ago on long term modelling - with a large primary trough and strong westerly flow, favourable phasing with the jet could generate a pokey runner. One to watch.
In the meantime not a lot has changed to enthuse the coldies going into the heart of January. I keep reading elsewhere about SSWs but the data suggests that this is not being projected (at least a technical SSW, not just a robust warming at 10hPa which some people think is an SWW).
You can tell the clock is ticking on winter when the SWW card is played :)
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
fairweather
03 January 2023 10:09:44
One thing I always have to bear in mind when glancing at the London 850 hPa ensembles at this time of year is that the long term mean drops to almost -3C so you don't have to be far below the line for it to be quite cold. Having said that not looking good for cold until after January 10th if at all.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
03 January 2023 10:38:34
The problem as so often seems to be heights over Europe. Even when pressure tries to build to the north we can't get anything interesting to the UK while our old friend the "Bern high pressure" is in residence. A look at the ensemble shows an annoying cluster around the 1030mb mark although there are also quite a few with pressure dropping by mid month.
UserPostedImage
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
UncleAlbert
03 January 2023 11:02:03

One thing I always have to bear in mind when glancing at the London 850 hPa ensembles at this time of year is that the long term mean drops to almost -3C so you don't have to be far below the line for it to be quite cold. Having said that not looking good for cold until after January 10th if at all.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



But of course with the mobility that is so typical of January, (especially in the modern winter), there is little time for any pooling of any cold that does feed through.
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