Looks like the longest run of below average 850s this year!

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes indeed, even I am raising half an eyebrow.

My feet remain firmly grounded though, as we know if anything can wrong, it usually will. But on face value, looking promising.

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Yes indeed, even I am raising half an eyebrow.

My feet remain firmly grounded though, as we know if anything can wrong, it usually will. But on face value, looking promising.

Yes at least its something to talk about.  Could easily go Pete Tong yet though.  Both Met and BBC monthlies are fairly underwhelming. 

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Like I said before, anything to keep the angry Atlantic at arms length for as long as possible will do me just fine. 

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I don't see how we will get a significant cold spell this Winter as it would go against all the long range models, analogues, SSTs etc. that are all pointing towards an extremely mild Winter. Therefore I would be absolutely shocked if some of these models verified showing scandi blocks and cold Easterlies.

I understood that there was support for colder weather at the beginning of the winter, based on the La Niña pattern?

Anyway, we’re still a week or more away from the pattern change and as the ensemble options show, there are many ways the set-up could evolve differently even if the basic long wave pattern is favourable for colder weather.

The usual caveats apply: cross-model support, run-to-run stability,  and the Met Office including colder weather and wintry precipitation in its output.

For once I’m not hoping for an Arctic spell, given energy prices and generating capacity constraints.

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Like I said before, anything to keep the angry Atlantic at arms length for as long as possible will do me just fine. 

 

Western parts of the UK set for a battering from strong winds tomorrow.

Warnings for rain in the SW, but nothing for storm force winds.

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Western parts of the UK set for a battering from strong winds tomorrow.

Warnings for rain in the SW, but nothing for storm force winds.

Now don’t go spoiling the atmosphere by talking about actual weather 😂

ICON continues the theme of easterly influence (which is what you call an easterly drift with as yet no real bite).

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I understood that there was support for colder weather at the beginning of the winter, based on the La Niña pattern?

La Nina winters, if anything, tend slightly towards milder conditions in the winter (in this part of the world) but all just statistical noise really. 

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Like I said before, anything to keep the angry Atlantic at arms length for as long as possible will do me just fine. 

Ian, be careful what you wish for...

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GFS op run starts to create it own cold pool over the continent/SE to show what can happen in this set-up.

Control looks nice so far

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GFS op run starts to create it own cold pool over the continent/SE to show what can happen in this set-up.

And goes on to be super primed with eastern promise.

I can’t see any reason not to continue to think we are seeing a slow creep into a very interesting early winter period.

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GFS 12Z op run looks primed for significant snow at the end of the run with a low about to run into some pretty cold air from Europe. GFSP is slightly less exciting but still rather cold.

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GFS picked up on the heatwave that couldn't happen, and persisted with the extremity of it, if not the exact timing; it had a feel signal.

Now I'm not suggesting we should shift from scientific evidence to 'feel', but I hope you know what I mean in terms of not writing off unlikely scenarios- when the 'impossible' came through.

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GFS picked up on the heatwave that couldn't happen, and persisted with the extremity of it, if not the exact timing; it had a feel signal.

Now I'm not suggesting we should shift from scientific evidence to 'feel', but I hope you know what I mean in terms of not writing off unlikely scenarios- when the 'impossible' came through.

the difference is the heatwave was built on probability due to the massive heat pool that was extreme. This time we start from scratch but the signs are there and cold pools can develop very quickly during static pools of air and minimal solar heating

One thing i will say is that GFS has been remarkably consistent in terms of hinting of an Easterly for December and I think there is quite amount of cross model agreement although its still out in far away land in forecasting terms. I think somehting good is the offing. Afterall Putin said so.

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ECM looks like how I would draw an early December chart for cold

ECM looks like how I would draw an early December chart for cold

2010 is in another league when it comes to early winter cold set up 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=4&month=12&year=2010&hour=0&type=ncep&map=1&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

 

 

2010 is in another league when it comes to early winter cold set up 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=4&month=12&year=2010&hour=0&type=ncep&map=1&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

 

depends where you lived bar 1 big snowfall wasn’t remarkable in the SE

 

depends where you lived bar 1 big snowfall wasn’t remarkable in the SE

Agree, Dec 2010 was cold but largely snowless down here. January 2010 on the other hand…

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depends where you lived bar 1 big snowfall wasn’t remarkable in the SE

You said cold not snow? Plus the ECM is useless for snow wherever you are in the UK