Looking at ensembles, Certainly looking like a western Russia High pressure zone building over next week to 10 days.

If you pick Moscow as a location, many of the 2m temperature lines disappear off bottom of chart (scale only goes down to -20c), moving towards UK and looking at Warsaw still obvious temperature fall, but as you pick locations nearer to here, it doesn’t really get to UK

So while their is potential for properly cold weather (rather than not frosty, and just bit chilly) in UK, I am not yet seeing any strong signs that real cold will reach UK within next 2-3 weeks, even seems a long shot to get some lake effect snow from airflow passing over the North Sea.

But as a building block for a proper winter after Christmas, rather than damp grey Atlantic dominated weather, it is looking more hopeful.

 

 

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The 0C isotherm on WX shows the same progression as yesterday, from E Poland in week 1 to E France in week 2, with slight modifications - extra cold air near Finland and not quite as cold for Britain (though still hovering around average). Not as dry as shown yesterday, with rain circling UK(literally so, in the Channel, Irish Sea and N Sea but not inland), also heavy rain in central Med plus in week 2 rain/snow from Adriatic up to Baltic.

GFS Op - LPs running NE-wards close to NW Scotland until Tue 29th after which pressure rises and HP 1030mb N Sea links to main centre over Russia. The area of HP drifts N-wards to Faeroes with patches of cool (not really cold air) moving E-wards across/close to England associated with more definite LPs 1005mb Cornwall Mon 5th and 1000mb Corsica Fri 9th, the latter extending weakly to the N Sea later; in general the source of air for Britain for much of this period will be SE-ly from a moderately cold Continent.

ECM - like GFS to Thu 1st but after that a stronger development of HP over Britain, at first linking to the Russian HP but then becoming a separate centre 1040mb Scotland Sun 4th (and E-lies for England to that point) and finally moving S to England while sufficiently separate from the Russian Lp to permit a broad trough to establish over the Baltic.

GEFS - wet in the S at first but otherwise on the dry side generally; a couple of brief milder spells Sun 27th and Thu 1st but after that mean temp running slightly below norm but op goes first above then below while control does the opposite!

 

GFSP closer to ECM.

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No, I just assumed that they would move the ensemble suite over to the new version, otherwise it makes a bit of a nonsense of the whole purpose of the ensemble suite, doesn’t it?  It’s testing for changes in the evolution resulting from tiny errors at T+0 so you’d have thought it needed to be the same software, otherwise you have another variable in play which undermines the value.

I've had a quick scan through the service notifications and I think GEFS was upgraded in early October 2022 to v12.3.1. However, I'm not 100% certain and if anyone knows differently I will stand corrected. They don't usually upgrade GFS and GEFS at the same time because of the complexity involved and the potential for problems.

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Cold air becoming established on the continent

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

The general evolving pattern looks more sorted now with a very intense Russian/Scandi high setting up. Over the UK the detail looks messier but some colder air looks likely to be thrown into the mix before too long.

Quite encouraging for the start of winter

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I've had a quick scan through the service notifications and I think GEFS was upgraded in early October 2022 to v12.3.1. However, I'm not 100% certain and if anyone knows differently I will stand corrected. They don't usually upgrade GFS and GEFS at the same time because of the complexity involved and the potential for problems.

Thanks. You’ve prompted me to do some digging around and I’ve found a table of changes - probably your source?

It’s rather more dynamic, and more complex, than I realised

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

 

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Thanks. You’ve prompted me to do some digging around and I’ve found a table of changes - probably your source?

It’s rather more dynamic, and more complex, than I realised

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

 

They've got a mailing list which goes into more detail and includes the TINS (which are linked on the page you have posted) but it is the same information.  

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Looks like we are at least in line for something we haven't experienced for many months down south .. a long sequence of single digit maxima!

Please note - usual favoured coastal locations excluded from this offer ......

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Parallel run looks good on the 6z for cold - can it get here

GFS 06z slow evolution but eventually gets there

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Looks like we are at least in line for something we haven't experienced for many months down south .. a long sequence of single digit maxima!

Please note - usual favoured coastal locations excluded from this offer ......

And a few days on the trot without rain! 

Whilst no deep cold on offer, it will be cold enough for high energy use and heating on for longer. Let's see how the grid copes. Other European countries have prepared better than us and educated their populations about energy saving. 

Thanks to the Truss cap and Sunal rebate, you are actually paying less if you are on a DD, so may be more complacent about wasting energy

 

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cold enough perhaps for some snizzle

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Parallel run looks good on the 6z for cold - can it get here

 

The building blocks are also dropping in place for retrogression of the block, with upper heights rising over Greenland, a southerly tracking jet and a jet streak heading SE over NE Greenland at T+288

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The building blocks are also dropping in place for retrogression of the block, with upper heights rising over Greenland, a southerly tracking jet and a jet streak heading SE over NE Greenland at T+288

just waiting for someone to call that a polar low 😂

An easterly influence from mid week gaining more traction.
Not overly cold yet, but seasonal and dry. The promise of greater things to come in the extended. I’ll be glad when the current GFSP becomes the main OP so we can at least drop the comparison process that occurs on each run.

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And a heads-up. There’s going to be some stonkers in the GEFS if the early stages are anything to go by 👍

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I don't see how we will get a significant cold spell this Winter as it would go against all the long range models, analogues, SSTs etc. that are all pointing towards an extremely mild Winter. Therefore I would be absolutely shocked if some of these models verified showing scandi blocks and cold Easterlies.

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Looks like we are at least in line for something we haven't experienced for many months down south .. a long sequence of single digit maxima!

Please note - usual favoured coastal locations excluded from this offer ......

Might even get a ground frost for the first time since early October! Not had an air frost yet this end of the year as far as I recall. 

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Looks like the longest run of below average 850s this year!

 

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I don't see how we will get a significant cold spell this Winter as it would go against all the long range models, analogues, SSTs etc. that are all pointing towards an extremely mild Winter. Therefore I would be absolutely shocked if some of these models verified showing scandi blocks and cold Easterlies.

might be worth going to the winter discussion thread then