GFS 12z continues the dry high pressure borefest and takes it to new levels. 

if going to be sunny days it not borefest as last first 2 weeks of Sept had been very borefest.  Need drying out and heating still won't be needed if sunny days 16-17C and 6-7C windless night will keep indoors warm.  Wind, clouds and rain can reduce the indoor temps a lot than sunny and cool nights.

 

if going to be sunny days it not borefest as last first 2 weeks of Sept had been very borefest.  Need drying out and heating still won't be needed if sunny days 16-17C and 6-7C windless night will keep indoors warm.  Wind, clouds and rain can reduce the indoor temps a lot than sunny and cool nights.

Think you're in dreamland but...Good luck!!

 

 

Think you're in dreamland but...Good luck!!

How so when apps and forecasts going for those temps? 

Quite a big drop in daily maxes from Wed to Thu coming up. Are winds progged to be coming more down from a Nly direcxtion?

Quite a big drop in daily maxes from Wed to Thu coming up. Are winds progged to be coming more down from a Nly direcxtion?

Yes; go look at a chart or two.

If you want some fun look at the latest CFS run full of wintry delights, a run to cheer up Retron after the worst summer! Quick before it disappears

Wow!  Just the winter when we could do without.

Anomaly of at least 5C below norm covering most if not all of Britain from Nov to Apr inclusive, with just one month off in Feb. 

If I believed that LRFs were reliable, I'd be really worried.

If you want some fun look at the latest CFS run full of wintry delights, a run to cheer up Retron after the worst summer! Quick before it disappears

Yes, a cold and snowy December on that run, with more to come afterwards - it's only 2300 hours away, what could possibly go wrong?

Quite a big drop in daily maxes from Wed to Thu coming up. Are winds progged to be coming more down from a Nly direcxtion?

Yes mean gin blue skies and keep indoor warmer from strong sun input. if hazy wont warm up much.

And for the third day in a row, WX temp summary shows the battle between cooler air from the NE and warmer air on Atlantic coasts continuing, though neither much below or above norm respectively. By comparison with yesterday, the cooler air succeeds in advancing to E France & the shores of the Med in week 2, S Britain and W France hanging on to the last of the warmth'. Today there is a sign of a push back in week 2 from the SW led by that unusually warm area in S Biscay but the colder air continues to affect Turkey in week 2 (but with the Black Sea an 'island' of contrasting warmth with the land around it.

Rainfall however continues to shift around - week 1 dry in Ireland, wet for Europe east of and including Germany; week 2 dry in the Baltic and S Norway, wet around this area including S Britain

Jet mostly weak to the N of Britain and down the N Sea until Sat 24, when a loop off Ireland gradually begins to affect England. Last chart for Fri 30 turns violent past Greenland ad down the W Irish coast

GFS Op shows HP gradually moving in from the W to cover Britain Tue 20th after a week with N-ly winds, promoted by deep LP over Estonia. This HP moves off E-wards to Denmark Sun 25th and a shallow LP W of Ireland brings in S-lies (not W-lies as forecast yesterday). This gradually drifts N-wards but then teams up with the Atlantic to give a broad trough of LP affecting all Britain Fri 30th.

ECM shows the HP fading rather than drifting E-wards, and being replaced by a new HP on the Atlantic Sat 24th (not LP as in GFS) with a renewed spell of N-lies

GEFS is cool for a week (quite cold around Sat 17th, less so and for a shorter period in the SW) with rain starting up again in modest amounts from about Sat 24th

 

Yes, a cold and snowy December on that run, with more to come afterwards - it's only 2300 hours away, what could possibly go wrong?

Everything? CFS is quite different this morning with a cold October and a mild December, reversing yesterday's forecast, and proper winter January onwards, not letting up until May.

 

Everything? CFS is quite different this morning with a cold October and a mild December, reversing yesterday's forecast, and proper winter January onwards, not letting up until May.

don’t let the Express know about CFS though - Armageddon would have been reported by now 

Have the Express printed their traditional Autumn "A new ice age is coming" headline yet?

Have the Express printed their traditional Autumn "A new ice age is coming" headline yet?

The paper boy who cried Wolf!

Have the Express printed their traditional Autumn "A new ice age is coming" headline yet?

The new editorial team has no interest in the weather. During the heatwave they barely mentioned it, probably because it didn't fit with their anti-climate change agenda

 

if going to be sunny days it not borefest as last first 2 weeks of Sept had been very borefest.  Need drying out and heating still won't be needed if sunny days 16-17C and 6-7C windless night will keep indoors warm.  Wind, clouds and rain can reduce the indoor temps a lot than sunny and cool nights.

indeed, I think that is likely to be the case as we go into the second half of this September as the Atlantic seem to be struggling to get its act together. After having had 80+ mm of rain in just the past 10 days here at my location, it didn’t take long for me to say about wanting some decent drying up conditions! Furthermore, after having been miserable, dull and very wet this morning, the sun broke through in the afternoon and caused my famed west-facing hobby room to touch 30 C by sunset time, even though I had windows open and was 18 C outside at the time.

A late September 2011-type pattern developing on the 12Z GFS.

I find it can be very facinating when you get days in the mid or even upper-20s once the days are actually shorter than the nights. You also get an interesting phenomenon where you have very warm weather, but very long shadows too. It would certainly be a proper "last hurrah" of summer, put it that way.

A late September 2011-type pattern developing on the 12Z GFS.

I find it can be very fascinating when you get days in the mid or even upper-20s once the days are actually shorter than the nights. You also get an interesting phenomenon where you have very warm weather, but very long shadows too. It would certainly be a proper "last hurrah" of summer, put it that way.

Let hope this is a trend and bring it on, was talking to dad earlier on hoping for warmer late Sept and October to avoid heating on since 2011 and being over due for one.  Those charts can easily bring indoor temps to mid to high 20;s and with my shutters I have will prolonged the warmth after that.  Bank Holiday Monday will be the best one of this year than previous BH days.

 

Let hope this is a trend and bring it on, was talking to dad earlier on hoping for warmer late Sept and October to avoid heating on since 2011 and being over due for one.  Those charts can easily bring indoor temps to mid to high 20;s and with my shutters I have will prolonged the warmth after that.  Bank Holiday Monday will be the best one of this year than previous BH days.

They're not for BH Monday, they're for the Monday after (26th Sept). The day of the Queen's funeral is looking dry and fine, but quite cool.

 

They're not for BH Monday, they're for the Monday after (26th Sept). The day of the Queen's funeral is looking dry and fine, but quite cool.

I know and BH also very nice with lot of sunshine with high teen temps.