Given the current weather and the outlook on the models, I have to say it feels eerily similar to the final week of October 2015 at the moment. I think a lot of people will remember what that November and December were like...

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Given the current weather and the outlook on the models, I have to say it feels eerily similar to the final week of October 2015 at the moment. I think a lot of people will remember what that November and December were like...

I remember that period very well because it then led to a very wet winter which included our warmest December on record to date.

There is one key difference here because back then, we had just gone into a super El Nino event whereas we are now currently into the third year of what has been a very prolonged La Nina event, and we are at a different stage of the solar cycle from where we were back then (at that time, we had not long passed the solar maximum of solar cycle 24 whereas we are now currently approaching the solar maximum of solar cycle 25).

However, both the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific Oceans are much warmer than average at the moment, and probably far too warm for my liking. Recent events have shown that we can't seem to get a cold winter here with a warm NE Pacific Ocean and so, it wouldn't surprise me if this year ended up being the same old story once again in that regard.

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I remember that period very well because it then led to a very wet winter which included our warmest December on record to date.

There is one key difference here because back then, we had just gone into a super El Nino event whereas we are now currently into the third year of what has been a very prolonged La Nina event, and we are at a different stage of the solar cycle from where we were back then (at that time, we had not long passed the solar maximum of solar cycle 24 whereas we are now currently approaching the solar maximum of solar cycle 25).

However, both the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific Oceans are much warmer than average at the moment, and probably far too warm for my liking. Recent events have shown that we can't seem to get a cold winter here with a warm NE Pacific Ocean and so, it wouldn't surprise me if this year ended up being the same old story once again in that regard.

Yes, the background signals are a lot different this time. The Super Nino combined with a strong W'ly QBO pretty much guaranteed a very mild winter in 2015-16, but this time they're different.

There is every chance that we could do what happened in autumn 2005. October and the first half of November 2005 were exceptionally mild (I think October 2005 is the third warmest Oct on record), before the flow shifted NW'ly in the final third of November. Winter 2005-06 was then fairly decent, with a few cold anticyclonic spells. So still everything to play for yet, if you're after colder weather.

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It's persistently wet.

I needed a dry spell to get my garden sorted out for winter - you know, get all the 'summer' stuff put away. But I can't do that if they're wet.

I've got under the [permanent] gazebo piled high but more stuff uncovered.

I don't recall a period covering the second halfof September and all of October being so persistently wet. A shower or period of rain almost every day this month. Even when it doesn't rain, the air feels damp so nothing gets properly dry.

 

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November and December 2015 were actually the only part of that year that was especially warm. It had been on the average to chilly side until then . September was particularly cool.
So certainly weather now is no guide to the weather in the months ahead

Was meant to see SW winds the past week but ended up with more relentless S and SE crud meaning it turned out far cloudier, wetter and cooler than forecast.  Truly detestable 

It would be hard pressed to find any final third of October more dire than this. 14C rubbish every day and ludicrous mild nights. Only three in single figures since the 21^st and two of them were 9.6C. Two dry days since the 19^th and even when the sun is out it’s horrible and damp with humidity in the 80s or even 90s. An unimitigated horror show 

Maxima for the past 8 days:

14.3,13.6,13.6,13.3,14.3,13.6,14.3,14.4  

So little variation there are only four unique values with two of those repeated three times. Banal beyond comprehension. Absolutely nothing there that you wouldn’t expect to get at least once every year in late October assuming normal temperature variation. However these days its clear such an assumption is invalid.

This toxic run of mild minima which are more like the maxima we would expect at this time of the year but with less variety

10.5, 11.9, 9.6, 10.4, 7.9, 11.2, 10.0, 11.3, 9.6 

Final third of 2009 was similarly vile but not quite as bad as there were a couple of days saw 15-17C. The lack of variation is once again surreal. So depressing to compare what October used to be like to the sickening, unpleasant, uninteresting dross it has degenerated into.

Looking at the years 1947-1965, every single October bar 1952 and 1960 recorded a higher temperature than this October and only four of them (1947, 1954, 1960 and 1963) failed to record a frost.

October 1949 saw 21C reached at Stonehaven on the 3^rd and 4^th, 22C at Perth on the 5^th, 20.6C at Dyce on the 13^th, 21C at Achnasellach on the 13^th and 14^th and 21C at Edinburgh Botanic Gardens on the 14^th.

That is October warmth not the 14-16C crud we have had this year. I can’t remember the last time there were as many 20C days in October in Scotland as there were in 1949. We don’t get the warmth we used to get in October or the cold.

Not only did 1949 deliver on the warmth but the end of the month also brought a cold snap with the temperature dropping to -3C at Perth and Aberdeen, -8C at Braemar and Balmoral where snow lay. Even Rattray Head got to -1.7C. Only once in 18 years I’ve recorded that low in October.

Why the hell can’t we get anything resembling that anymore? Only bland nothingness. It wasn’t as if 1949 was a one off. Plenty of Octobers with warm spells and cold spells. Pretty much all of them in fact prior to the last 20 years.

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There's not a dedicated thread for this but worth a gloat?

New date record for 29th October yesterday, 22.9C at Kew. Previously 20.5C at Aber 1999

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There's not a dedicated thread for this but worth a gloat?

New date record for 29th October yesterday, 22.9C at Kew. Previously 20.5C at Aber 1999

That quite a jump for that late of the year and been long time not seen a 23C temps in the SE since mid Sept.  

Eugh... the dreaded clocks go back day. Now for three months of horrid late afternoon darkness. I absolutely hate this miserable time of year - the only good time is Christmas.

Roll on February.

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Eugh... the dreaded clocks go back day. Now for three months of horrid late afternoon darkness. I absolutely hate this miserable time of year - the only good time is Christmas.

Roll on February.

We will very soon be approaching the winter solstice as well and the only good thing about that time of the year is that with it being dark for most of the time (to such an extent that overcast days at that time of the year often never actually get completely light due to the very low angle of the midday Sun), I then get to see very little of those constant grey skies which are all too common here throughout the year in this part of the world.

It's just a shame that it's still not getting any colder. So far during this autumn, just two ground frosts have been recorded at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh with one ground frost at Edinburgh Gogarbank and not even a single ground frost at Swanston in the south of Edinburgh (where you would expect it to be colder than where I am in the north of Edinburgh due to the higher elevation above the mean sea level and as a result of being much further inland).

This after all, is the very time of the year when we would normally expect to be getting our first official air frost of the season and even our first single figures maximums and yet, we are still getting ridiculously mild maximum temperatures here on most days which are warm enough for me to even be able to go outside wearing just a T shirt.

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Eugh... the dreaded clocks go back day. Now for three months of horrid late afternoon darkness. I absolutely hate this miserable time of year - the only good time is Christmas.

Roll on February.

Try living up here (or Shetland!). 

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Eugh... the dreaded clocks go back day.

Did they? Not for me they didn't - never did see the point of conning yourself into thinking it's an hour later than it really is.

Sadly now the EU's clock-tinkering-ending plan has gone into hibernation it looks like I'll continue to be one of the few who avoids the whole sorry mess. Although we're not in the EU, there would have been strong pressure to follow them in abandoning clock tinkering.

(Philip Eden was another, fun fact!)

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Did they? Not for me they didn't - never did see the point of conning yourself into thinking it's an hour later than it really is.

Sadly now the EU's clock-tinkering-ending plan has gone into hibernation it looks like I'll continue to be one of the few who avoids the whole sorry mess. Although we're not in the EU, there would have been strong pressure to follow them in abandoning clock tinkering.

(Philip Eden was another, fun fact!)

 

How do you avoid it exactly? There's a bit more to it then fiddling with the family carriage clock twice a year... 

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Did they? Not for me they didn't - never did see the point of conning yourself into thinking it's an hour later than it really is.

Sadly now the EU's clock-tinkering-ending plan has gone into hibernation it looks like I'll continue to be one of the few who avoids the whole sorry mess. Although we're not in the EU, there would have been strong pressure to follow them in abandoning clock tinkering.

(Philip Eden was another, fun fact!)

 

I guess you can half do-it , stay on GMT and work to it with regards to some aspects of your routine, e.g getting up/mealtimes/activities/going to bed.

But the second that you interact with others through work and social and accessing shops/services then you need to work by their time. 

 

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How do you avoid it exactly? There's a bit more to it then fiddling with the family carriage clock twice a year... 

I go to work an hour earlier in summer, simple as that.

(While at work, it's like being on holiday - use their time, then go back to GMT once at home).

EDIT: As Tim suggests, effectively when I'm not at work I use GMT. Works fine for everything else, including shopping, tradesmen etc. It helps that I'm a lark, so I'm always up and about early anyway.

 

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I go to work an hour earlier in summer, simple as that.

(While at work, it's like being on holiday - use their time, then go back to GMT once at home).

EDIT: As Tim suggests, effectively when I'm not at work I use GMT. Works fine for everything else, including shopping, tradesmen etc. It helps that I'm a lark, so I'm always up and about early anyway.

 

 

I must admit that there is something to be said for it. My internal clock is definitely set to GMT so the changing of the clocks is always very welcome for me. Kudos to you for sticking with it!

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Another Halloween with rain. It set it around 6.30 here and it was sad seeing all the little kids drenched in their costumes.

 

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Another Halloween with rain. It set it around 6.30 here and it was sad seeing all the little kids drenched in their costumes.

 

Yes second year in a row that there has been torrential rain. 

Thankfully it was a bit later here at 6.45 compared to last year so my 5 year old managed to go out for the first time, even if it was cut a bit short. 

23mm fell in a few hours. 

 

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Driving home from work this morning, it was a bit lighter as a result of the clock change. It's pretty extraordinary how green some trees still are on 2 November! I suppose the lack of cold nights has really had an effect.

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Starting to feel a bit more autumnal now.  Dare we think summer is finally over?   

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