Smarkets are offering [effectively] evens

Tempted to put £100 on or something, but have never used Smarkets before

https://smarkets.com/event/42808150/politics/current-affairs/environment/2022/07/31/12-00/uk-record-temperature-to-be-broken

 

 

I have used Smarkets (before I put a block on all gambling sites ). Low liquidity in general but never had any problems with it.

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6Z set not as extreme as the 0Z. The heat is pushed away too quickly on the 19th where the uppers have the potential to be at their highest.

 

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I have used Smarkets (before I put a block on all gambling sites ). Low liquidity in general but never had any problems with it.

Ive used it, and I did the same. I was doing this Odd Matching stuff which was great until I got hooked on slots. Anyways a story for another day.

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P21 has 35, 42, 43 for Sun, Mon, Tue.

The GEFS are ridiculous. From a quick skim I'd say around half hit 40C.

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Average mean on GFS now peaks at 23.7 up from 22.4 on the 0z

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Average mean on GFS now peaks at 23.7 up from 22.4 on the 0z

The mean actually has the 24C isotherm over the UK. This is crazy stuff.

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Putting aside this exceptional spell coming up, what I'm loving more than anything is how settled it is looking longer term too.
A properly good summer is developing here. GFS 6Z just keeps the dry and warm weather going, with always the chance of another plume of exceptional warmth too.

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The 6Z runs do offer some 40C solutions, but I still have at the back of my mind how much more extreme they could be.

Most of the heat is being pushed out on the 19th, and yet we still have 42C+ in parts of the east.

How much hotter could it really be if the heat lasted just one more day?

 

Here's a hint. Hull is not the hottest part of the UK, and should never hold the UK record.

A direct hit on the UK with the same plume would be 3C+ hotter in the London Area or near Cambridge.

 

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I have used Smarkets (before I put a block on all gambling sites ). Low liquidity in general but never had any problems with it.

 

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The 6Z runs do offer some 40C solutions, but I still have at the back of my mind how much more extreme they could be.

Most of the heat is being pushed out on the 19th, and yet we still have 42C+ in parts of the east.

How much hotter could it really be if the heat lasted just one more day?

 

Here's a hint. Hull is not the hottest part of the UK, and should never hold the UK record.

A direct hit on the UK with the same plume would be 3C+ hotter in the London Area or near Cambridge.

 

A rather strange thing to say. The record is where the record does, there's no 'should' about it. Cheltenham isn't the warmest part of the UK either (though I believe there is some kind of a micro-climate going on in the lower Severn valley) yet that place held the record for 13 years.

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A rather strange thing to say. The record is where the record does, there's no 'should' about it. Cheltenham isn't the warmest part of the UK either (though I believe there is some kind of a micro-climate going on in the lower Severn valley) yet that place held the record for 13 years.

The point I'm trying to make is that Hull is not naturally disposed to be the hottest part of the UK. The fact it is shown to be in some of these runs suggest that other parts of the UK are being handicapped which they are.

Take the same plume and push it over the spine of the country and instead of having a max of 43C in the Hull area, you'd have a max of 46C somewhere in the SE.

 

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The point I'm trying to make is that Hull is not naturally disposed to be the hottest part of the UK. The fact it is shown to be in some of these runs suggest that other parts of the UK are being handicapped which they are.

Take the same plume and push it over the spine of the country and instead of having a max of 43C in the Hull area, you'd have a max of 46C somewhere in the SE.

 

Maybe on tomorrows 6z lol.

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Another example. The record for france is currently in the Red area. However I strongly believe this is a 'soft' record and the part of france with the highest potential for extreme heat is in Blue.

In the UK you take the perfect synoptic scenario and the SE always has more potential than Yorkshire to create extreme temperatures.

 

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Let me give an example that makes this point clearer.

There are alot of parkruns across the UK (weekly 5km races). Imagine you take a fairly rocky course with hills and a proffesional athlete choses to run that course (because maybe he lives nearby) and beats the all time course record.

Now that parkrun is suddenly the fastest parkrun in the country. But only because a proffesional athlete just happened to run it. In reality the course with the most potential will be flat with no hills and could boast a better time.

 

In the same way, when you see Hull breaking temperature records, that immediately implies wasted potential and an even higher temperature that would have been achived under only marginally different synoptic conditions.

 

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Another example. The record for france is currently in the Red area. However I strongly believe this is a 'soft' record and the part of france with the highest potential for extreme heat is in Blue.

In the UK you take the perfect synoptic scenario and the SE always has more potential than Yorkshire to create extreme temperatures.

 

Recent GFS runs have had potential record maxima in the blue area. Could be there next week.

 

Anyway at least if Yorkshire takes the record it will leave the way open for a Heathrow 45C in a few years!

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Recent GFS runs have had potential record maxima in the blue area. Could be there next week.

 

Anyway at least if Yorkshire takes the record it will leave the way open for a Heathrow 45C in a few years!

Indeed. Canada is another example, does anyone seriously believe the month of June has more potential than the month of July.

Though that scenario was so snyoptically bonkers that it isn't falling anytime soon. In fact that Canada heatwave, imo is the most extreme weather event we will ever see in any of our lives.

 

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Recent GFS runs have had potential record maxima in the blue area. Could be there next week.

 

Anyway at least if Yorkshire takes the record it will leave the way open for a Heathrow 45C in a few years!

 

I would think that the GFS is shunting the heat away too quickly on Tuesday - if this is the case, I'd expect a location in the SE to be the hottest place.

 

I'd bet money against Hull getting the record - and I have nothing against Hull by the way!

 

 

I would think that the GFS is shunting the heat away too quickly on Tuesday - if this is the case, I'd expect a location in the SE to be the hottest place.

 

I'd bet money against Hull getting the record - and I have nothing against Hull by the way!

If you are right, then we need to be prepared because 40C will be widespread if the heat isn't shunted away on Tuesday.

 

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https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m-hd/3h.htm

Its going to happen isn't it 

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COBRA meeting just ongoing