UK Met global 168 not without interest this morning for cold weather fans.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=00&charthour=168&chartname=850_temperature&chartregion=na-region&charttag=850hPa%20temp%20C

wx summary showing cold air from the NE moving slowly W-wards but not reaching coastal countries of W Europe exc Norway. A bit cooler for Uk week 2 but not much. Rain on Atlantic fringing Uk week 1 changing to a thrust from Scotland down to the Alps (it'll be snow there)

Jet W-ly around the UK to start with - first to the N, then S, then back again - after Mon10th some weak N-ly development

GFS - shallow LP over UK at first switching to Atlantic and HP to the SE with strong S-ly flow by Sat 1st becoming SW then W and NW as new HP appears over the SW 1035mb Wed 5th and stays in that area until drawing back Mon 10th and allowing a 3-day N-ly

GEFS - v mild to 3rd Jan then mean near norm to end of run Thu 13th with control run at first and op later offering colder outliers. Dry around New Year for S then some rain, heavier in the NW, but less than shown yesterday.

ECM - that new HP over the SW in GFS is slower to become established so a brief N'ly spell  rather than NW-ly around Tue 4th with LP E Scotland 990mb then

My apologies for confusion here - whether it was being caught out by a new thread or just incompetence in posting in the wrong place I don't know but the summary is now recovered and posted above

Yes very mild initially but becomes rather more average out to mid-January on GEFS.

Maybe some transient polar outbreaks if we're lucky 

GFS broadly the same and mild throughout

Slight change on the ECM / ICON / UKMET. They have LP over the UK with a HP more westwards over the Atlantic which feeds in a northerly element (144 onwards)

ECM collapses the high back eastwards over the UK

Not sure if ICON or UKMET follow as we can’t quite go that far

The London midnight GEFS mean does actually go to around average at best from the middle of next week and the 2m temps look distinctly chilly although they don't seem quite compatible with the 850s.

A small possibility for toppler territory into mid Jan, before the default Uk winter resumes.

You know things are bad when we have to rely on a transitional toppler.

Im still disturbed by the fact we have gone from a potentially cold spell to a potential for record breaking winter warmth. It’s just beyond hideous.

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Royal Tunbridge Wells | Weather.us

As with yesterday, definite signs of a cool down to average or a touch below on the ECM ens and broadly all models agree that the extremely mild interlude caused by HP just to the South won't last more than a few days. There's varying degrees of enthusiasm amongst the various op runs for amplification of the pattern but it's a signal that keeps cropping up.

Overall nothing to get excited about but equally nothing to get too despondent about (if it's cold you like), with enough hints of potential to keep model viewing at least vaguely interesting. 

On the 'toppler' comments front - I'd rather have 2-3 days of chilly or cold weather and the chances of snow that brings to favoured spots (not MBY!) than the mostly mild, nondescript c**p we've had here for the last couple of weeks. The general pattern also seems to be one where the jet is far enough south that the UK is generally on the cold side. Again, not usually any good for here but can bring surprises further North, particularly if there's enough of a colder plunge ahead of the next Atlantic LP.

A decent cold spell isn't shown, the odd outlier aside, some chilly seasonal weather is and in January that's enough for some interest for some areas at least

(And just to pick up on ballamar's comment - if you advected 850s around the -10c mark from Scandi (about the best that cold pool has by that point, it'd be cold and even without the colder 850s hitting us the air at the surface is still only 3-4c at best for most areas. A Feb '91 classic it isn't but it's still a cold setup, as always it'd need luck to bring colder upper air over us. All a bit academic as it's one chart at the end of one run albeit something the GFS op has toyed with a bit recently).

Cooler temps on the way ..................thankfully 

Cooler temps on the way ..................thankfully 

A CHANGE? haha!

Yes, I saw that - A colder cluster of ENS appearing around 4th January however it's to be taken as a foot of salt!

A small possibility for toppler territory into mid Jan, before the default Uk winter resumes.

Do you have the output that shows a ‘default winter’ after mid Jan as I’d be interested in what that looks like.

 

Do you have the output that shows a ‘default winter’ after mid Jan as I’d be interested in what that looks like.

 

Do you have the output that shows a ‘default winter’ after mid Jan as I’d be interested in what that looks like.

Knowing how typically insightful and on point WMs comments generally are I assumed he meant default January weather, so feeling chilly with snow at times particularly over northern hills and temps ranging from 4-5c in Scotland to 7-9c in the South with maybe a few colder or milder days thrown in. 

GFS 06z has some notable differences compared to earlier updates

Things change around 144 territory which was what the 00z showed from UKMET / ECM / ICON G

GFS falls in with them on 12z with ridging HP further West which allows cooler air to filter down.

This seems a distinct possibility with multiple models now hinting this. Will be keen to see ECM later to see if it shows it again around 4th.

ECM collapses the HP back over the UK which the GFS does in some similar path

What is evident so far is more average conditions towards end of first week of Jan.

Cold air out East fades this week so we will lose that V cold feed should an easterly set up but as I said earlier this week, a southerly could be easily end up East

 

Knowing how typically insightful and on point WMs comments generally are I assumed he meant default January weather, so feeling chilly with snow at times particularly over northern hills and temps ranging from 4-5c in Scotland to 7-9c in the South with maybe a few colder or milder days thrown in. 

I think he means now, not some bye-gone decade. 

You know things are bad when we have to rely on a transitional toppler.

Im still disturbed by the fact we have gone from a potentially cold spell to a potential for record breaking winter warmth. It’s just beyond hideous.

At least we can see the sun and there been absent of topplers as they always give us sunny days with frosts and in summer becoming settled, warmer and sunnier after LP exit east unlike now LP or HP stuck over here with rain and dull weather almost all year around.

The charts really our starting to look more promising. Long way off in model terms but going in the right direction for cold.