The charts really our starting to look more promising. Long way off in model terms but going in the right direction for cold.

Climb aboard everybody, the model rollercoaster ride is about to depart....

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Climb aboard everybody, the model rollercoaster ride is about to depart....

Oh, no - not this ride again: My stomach is still a bit too full of Christmas fodder!

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Oh, no - not this ride again: My stomach is still a bit too full of Christmas fodder!

No excitement here. Until I see some good grouping or a major change it's pretty standard fare

I think our pre-Christmas ride has left us all feeling a bit delicate! One or two maybe happy the rides are opening again after a Christmas break 🤔

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After my mood this morning. I’m ready to enter the theme park.

Will I get on the teacups or the rollercoaster?

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The Northern Hemisphere is almost supportive of a decent cold snap on GFS op - see where this lands

Looks like the very mild spell may not last too long, I suppose the mild weather fanboys won't be liking that, similar to having a cold spell that only lasts 4 days, must be very frustrating for them.

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While we bask in a tropical dark, deep midwinter event..I am overwhelmed at the Ops offing of snow showers in Scotland next week..not to mention the slim chance of a bit of sleet south of the M62...stuff of dreams..

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…. didn't I suggest we’d be back to talking cold and winter output for next week? 😉 #Swings #Roundabouts

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The charts really our starting to look more promising. Long way off in model terms but going in the right direction for cold.

It's all very tentative, but at the moment I think the trend is a little more positive for cold fans than it was in the second half of last week. At that time, there were suggestions from GFS FI that the very mild spell could be a protracted one whereas now, it looks more likely than not to be a relatively brief one according to current output.

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GFS12z so far looks consistent to the 06z where it brings cooler weather back after 4th January.

Very mild spell looks like lasting a week or so but at this moment it looks like it will break to a mobile westerly / northerly flow.

See where the rest of the models sit later

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Re today's GFS runs, I preferred the 00z and 06z outputs as that showed a settled set up with the potential of importing some continental cold in the medium range, the 12z looks horrible with spells of gale force winds (from the west then the south) - that one is for my bin. 

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GFS12z so far looks consistent to the 06z where it brings cooler weather back after 4th January.

Very mild spell looks like lasting a week or so but at this moment it looks like it will break to a mobile westerly / northerly flow.

See where the rest of the models sit later

I'm not sure the very mild spell will last as much as a week, going by current output and especially for more northern areas.

As far as I can see, the models currently have it lasting into the start of the weekend but the suggestion now seems to be that cooler air will start to return from the west on Sunday after what looks to be an active front has crossed the UK. The general theme now seems to be that the very mild spell will likely be somewhat shorter in duration than was initially suggested last week.

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With the latest model offering the Scottish ski resorts could do well out of it. 

Mostly cold north westerly or westerly at best(cold zonal) on the table.These sort of set ups really have been the theme of recent winters...Real copy paste stuff....

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I'm not sure the very mild spell will last as much as a week, going by current output and especially for more northern areas.

As far as I can see, the models currently have it lasting into the start of the weekend but the suggestion now seems to be that cooler air will start to return from the west on Sunday after what looks to be an active front has crossed the UK. The general theme now seems to be that the very mild spell will likely be somewhat shorter in duration than was initially suggested last week.

Its certainly reduced in length. It would be nice for some good crisp winter weather before we go into Spring

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Do you have the output that shows a ‘default winter’ after mid Jan as I’d be interested in what that looks like.

Yep, pretty drab outlook for coldies as far as ‘late winter’ is concerned. Current and pending zonality looks set to continue and in my opinion was called rather well in November - further reading here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1-secure.pdf

 

 

Yep, pretty drab outlook for coldies as far as ‘late winter’ is concerned. Current and pending zonality looks set to continue and in my opinion was called rather well in November - further reading here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1-secure.pdf

 

 

You may or may not ultimately be proved right in what you say. That said, I think that it would take a very brave person to make any call for a long way ahead at the moment with any amount of confidence in view of the huge amount of volatility there has been in the output over the past couple of weeks. Even this upcoming very mild spell doesn't now look like lasting as long as the models originally indicated last week, as I commented earlier.

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Forget “late winter”, mid-winter could be not without interest. Perhaps a decent GFS pub run to continue a trend away from the notable upcoming mildness to something more seasonal.

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Crikey, I hadn’t looked at the models for a couple of days, then just loaded up the GEFS spaghetti plot and thought I must be looking at a cached one from a couple of weeks ago. Where did all those colder runs come from? I thought we were locked into mildness until mid Jan at least.

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