GFS seems to be backtracking, delaying HP arrival*. If one can forecast by backtracking charts, then fine, settled weather probably won't arrive. 


*btw, I'm using https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP.

 

 

I dont think there is a delay most models and their ensembles bring the high pressure in about the 25th/26th.

Here's the GEFS mean at 192h.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

ECM ensemble mean at 192h

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

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HP starting to take residence over the UK , should pick the temps up 

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HP starting to take residence over the UK , should pick the temps up 

only a matter of time before it slips into a favourable position ready for flaming June

A decidedly summery look to the midterm charts this evening. Nothing furiously and unpleasantly hot, but fine, classically English, summer conditions building slowly from the South West.

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16-dayer copied from yesterday - it hasn't really changed though any warm-up has if anything slowed down shows the Atlantic trying to push some warmth towards the UK in week 2 but at that stage only as far as France - but the cold 'bulge' has at least moved off to the east affecting Baltic state, Belarus and even down as far as Turkey. Rain in week 1 generally in Britain and across to N Europe, then drier here week 2 while new band sets up across Biscay to Alps.

Jetstream stll running over France until Thu 27th after which it progressively breaks up and is irtually absent from the NE Atlantic including the UK from Sun 30th 

GFS - deep LP running across UK this Friday, with a weak hang-back 1000mb Scotland Mon 24th. HP then builds in from the SW to NW Scotland by Thu 27th but leaving S England under NE-lies. These promote a shallow LP over the Channel Mon 31st while the HP becomes less well defined and by Thu 3rd LP near Iceland promotes a generally W-ly pattern over the UK

GEFS - mostly cool  to Sat 29th and then considerable temp variation either side of the norm. Continuing showery but shower activity slowly declining in the S while in the N showers are least in evidence around the 29th. 

ECM similar to GFS though while slower to develop HP has it stronger by Sat 29th (still focused on the NW, though)

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It is looking like north west will be best through late May and early June. More settled in general but southern and eastern parts are still at risk from showers, some longer spells of rain and cooler north easterlies.

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It is looking like north west will be best through late May and early June. More settled in general but southern and eastern parts are still at risk from showers, some longer spells of rain and cooler north easterlies.

Indeed, it is starting to look like a repeat of the stunted Spring of 2013 where I kept having north easterlies - the only thing I've not had too much in the way of so far this year is sea fog.

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GFS OP on the lower side of the ENS

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It is looking like north west will be best through late May and early June. More settled in general but southern and eastern parts are still at risk from showers, some longer spells of rain and cooler north easterlies.

 

Probably a fair shout, although I think it will be a massive improvement on what we have now for most, away from exposed North Sea coasts. Areas on the south coast in the lee of high ground, could actually do pretty well.

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 the only thing I've not had too much in the way of so far this year is sea fog.

that's because you need some warm air for that. 

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Scandi trough taking a little longer to clear east so cooler weather hanging on longer. But the destination is still for high pressure to begin to dominate the uk weather from about the 26th.  The ECM mean wants to clear the high pressure from Greenland aswell by day 9 this is vitally important if we want sustained summer conditions. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

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Looks like high pressure may take some time to establish itself and then probably remaining cool at first

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Scandi trough taking a little longer to clear east so cooler weather hanging on longer. But the destination is still for high pressure to begin to dominate the uk weather from about the 26th.  The ECM mean wants to clear the high pressure from Greenland aswell by day 9 this is vitally important if we want sustained summer conditions. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

 

Indeed Ally. It’s a slowly, slowly, catchy monkey scenario. But the trend is clear. 

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I only dip in and out of running through the models, not review after every run, but I was seeing a trend developing where a belt of HP would sit over/just to the north of the north of the UK, bringing a generally easterly flow. A similar picture to May/June 18.

Unfortunately, current output I've seen has that sinking south too much.

 

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I only dip in and out of running through the models, not review after every run, but I was seeing a trend developing where a belt of HP would sit over/just to the north of the north of the UK, bringing a generally easterly flow. A similar picture to May/June 18.

Unfortunately, current output I've seen has that sinking south too much.

 

Todays 12z GFS is the first summery Bobby Dazzler of the year. Probably over the top, but shows what is possible if we get the cards stacked in the right place.

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Todays 12z GFS is the first summery Bobby Dazzler of the year. Probably over the top, but shows what is possible if we get the cards stacked in the right place.

It looks overcooked to me Kieron. But the general trend towards high pressure starting a week today is clear. We will of course get hot outliers like the 12z (I’m assuming it won’t have huge support) as part of a general warming theme.

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It looks overcooked to me Kieron. But the general trend towards high pressure starting a week today is clear. We will of course get hot outliers like the 12z (I’m assuming it won’t have huge support) as part of a general warming theme.

Nice to look at though, just like those cold Easterlies in winter 

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Nice to look at though, just like those cold Easterlies in winter 

Oh yes, absolutely agreed. 

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A massive step back from the GFS 0Z today with the end of May/early June back to very cool for the time of year and pretty unsettled.
However, GEM is completely different with temperatures widely into the upper teens to low 20s.
Over to ECM again. It was never going to be plain sailing to rid the country of this cold and unsettled pattern that has written off the whole of May so far.
I remain hopeful of a significant change, but the GFS 0Z does throw a spanner in the works somewhat if its picked up on another new trend.

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GFS is taking its lead from the jetstream which had almost disappeared for a period yesterday, normally associated with fine weather. Today's forecast shows it back again though, not very strong, but definitely present around the UK; W-ly to Tue 25th, then E-ly on the return side of a loop to Mon 30th, then W-ly again over and later just S of UK to Sat 5th.

GFS itself; current LP runs across N England with a follow-on 995mb Scotland Mon 24th; HP develops mid-Atlantic and at its closest approach moves to N Ireland 1035mb Sun 30th but always a let-down for England as NE-lies persist around its southern edge; then a more W-ly regime with a shallow depression moving across Scotland 995mb Wed 3rd.

GEFS agreement on continuing quite cool to Thu 27th after which the mean of different runs returns to seasonal norm but that conceals a considerable spread above and below with the control run notably warm around Sun 30th. Rainfall showery (but with a bonus extra in the S Sun 23rd), amounts declining noticeably after Thu 27th

ECM similar to GFS - if anything the HP around Sun 30th is less focused on the NW and is spread more widely over the UK

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