A massive step back from the GFS 0Z today with the end of May/early June back to very cool for the time of year and pretty unsettled.
However, GEM is completely different with temperatures widely into the upper teens to low 20s.
Over to ECM again. It was never going to be plain sailing to rid the country of this cold and unsettled pattern that has written off the whole of May so far.
I remain hopeful of a significant change, but the GFS 0Z does throw a spanner in the works somewhat if its picked up on another new trend.

 Come off it! You know the recent runs weren't a massive step forwards and this isn't a massive step backwards. The ensembles look reasonably solid and at the moment I don't think anyone is suggesting the blowtorch is imminent.

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 Come off it! You know the recent runs weren't a massive step forwards and this isn't a massive step backwards. The ensembles look reasonably solid and at the moment I don't think anyone is suggesting the blowtorch is imminent.

I mean, yesterday 0z showed temps of 22-23 by 1st June and the 6z showed 26/27c. This mornings 0z shows 14-17c at the same time.

Thats the massive step back I meant. Its on the charts. Not saying its likely, but that is a huge drop from the charts of yesterday, that's all I'm saying.

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I don't know how people can stay sane if they are comparing figures in FI from a model that runs four times a day and then attempting to draw such specific conclusions. As Brian is saying the ensembles look solid enough and there will of course be variations from run to run but the broad trend is consistent enough. I am not seeing any notable backtracks (or forward tracks).

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I don't know how people can stay sane if they are comparing figures in FI from a model that runs four times a day and then attempting to draw such specific conclusions.

Who said anyone following this thread is sane?! 😜

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Looks like warmer and drier weather is struggling to establish itself on the latest op runs. As long as it arrives in time for the BH weekend and following week I will be happy, and the GEFS still showing a decent signal for warmer and drier for the first week of June

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As Brian was saying, ensembles pretty solid. The mean 850 from the last few days of May onwards has been around 5° for some time now so expecting the coming 4 ops to bounce around this level. Of course the massive feel good or bad pendulum swings around how much cloud we get.

Another poor opp run from GFS 12z with the more settled weather not showing its hand till about Sunday of next week, and even then with a cool Northerly

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Another poor opp run from GFS 12z with the more settled weather not showing its hand till about Sunday of next week, and even then with a cool Northerly

GFS has been all over the place recently very poor reliability.  But it does look like a delay in the settled weather. GEM also delays but gets there by 216h . 

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Still a story of 'jam tomorrow'; the 16-dayer shows serious warmth over Spain ever so slowly creeping northwards but still not quite reaching Britain in week 2, while the mass of colder air is mainly over Poland and the Balkans , still too close for comfort. Focus of rain moves from UK in week 1 to Alps in week 2, with something a bit drier beginning to show in the SW

GFS current LP moving away E but replaced by another 995mb Ireland Mon 24th, followed by a week in which HP on the Atlantic tries to move to the UK but only finally succeeds for the weekend of 29th/30th (curious mini-depression over Cornwall on 28th) but pressure drops again with large but shallow trough from the N in place by Wed 2nd, that giving way to a more W-ly pattern later

GEFS cool at first but as yesterday back to seasonal norm around Fri 28th and a spread either side of the norm after that. Showery rain until 28th, bits and pieces in only some runs after that but more commonly in the N

ECM similar to GFS but some indication that the HP will hang on a bi longer after 29th

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I'm going away to the South Coast next Thursday/Friday so have been watching GFS closely. There is a definite step backwards in timimg. The HP was centred over the UK next Thursday, so not really FI. Now it isn't in that position to Saturday. So not so much a pattern change as a delay. Also away this weekend to Gloucestershire - of course the crap weather hasn't changed or got pushed back !

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We've had the April showers in May, and now we're getting the March winds and rain (and I've put the heating back on today).  The improvement to more settled weather is still shown in GEFS for the end of next week, but seems rather like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

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I was actually looking at the London GEFS this morning and thinking that it is finally looking consistent. For the last few days the mean 850HPa has been forecast to return to normal around May 28th, mean pressure rising around the same time but with a few rain spikes implying that there is still a risk of showers or longer spells of rain. This was never a nailed on warm, dry spell but even normal temperatures will feel tropical after what we are experiencing now 

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The GFS Op at the moment is nothing short of shambolic it's all over the place. It doesn't have a clue  after 144h. Wildly different solutions every run.

 

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The GFS Op at the moment is nothing short of shambolic it's all over the place. It doesn't have a clue  after 144h. Wildly different solutions every run.

 

If the models can't operate then the only one way for us is heading for settled with warm to hot summery weather as the unsettled weather cannot last forever now and we just 4 weeks left to the longest day now.

 

If the models can't operate then the only one way for us is heading for settled with warm to hot summery weather as the unsettled weather cannot last forever now and we just 4 weeks left to the longest day now.

It certainly wont last forever but it might drag on for a couple more weeks. ECM is better though.

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If the models can't operate then the only one way for us is heading for settled with warm to hot summery weather as the unsettled weather cannot last forever now and we just 4 weeks left to the longest day now.

It certainly wont last forever but it might drag on for a couple more weeks. ECM is better though.

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Surely it could last’ forever’ until the Greenland high permanently moves away thereby allowing the jet stream to move much further north? This would introduce warmer conditions from the South and allow The Azores High to take up some sort of residence in our vicinity rather than enduring the current autumn type weather we are experiencing from the Atlantic and continue to do so?

Gradually moving towards Summer starting properly in second week of June. Think the dross of a Spring will soon be forgotten

This reminds me of some of the late spring and early summer weather we used to get back in the 1960's, if anyone else remembers that dire decade for sun and warmth.

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I don't get the despondency.

By next weekend, both ECM and GEM both show a decent and stable-looking block situated just north of the UK, created by the AH ridging northwards then building into a separate feature, bringing dry, sunny weather to most of the UK. It won't be especially warm, and the east coast and SE generally wouldn't be as good at first, but I like the set-up - and the high then sinks to sit over the UK.

GFS is a fly in the ointment. It starts to follow the same evolution, but then throws in a shortwave low late next week that sits over the UK and buggers it all up, before centring a huge low over Iceland where the other two had high pressure.

 

 

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