It's amazing these days how the press/media consider -1degC in Scotland cold and then show pictures of Allendale in Northumberland covered in snow as if it's surprising, when your at around 1500ft in Dec/Jan i'd be surprised if it wasn't covered in snow for the majority of the time...meanwhile it looks as if milder weather is returning for a while so back to normal for most...

SKL on BBC stopped at Wed apart from saying ‘Heavy snow coming into the northwest’ yes, but where is it going..

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SKL on BBC stopped at Wed apart from saying ‘Heavy snow coming into the northwest’ yes, but where is it going..

Nowhere according to her on the CF forecast , it was a bag of s....

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Nowhere according to her on the CF forecast , it was a bag of s....

Yes. It couldn't have been worse. I'd convinced myself with the lower DPs and slightly lower 2m temperatures and -7.5C 850s and a snow row of 30 for London (I think, on the 06z) that there might of been a flake or two in Essex. But nope, just rain in the critical cold period then dry.

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Haven't seen Carol Kirkwood on a main BBC weather bulletin. Infact I think I thought she’d gone to ITV!

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Haven't seen Carol Kirkwood on a main BBC weather bulletin. Infact I think I thought she’d gone to ITV!

There has been so many big names from the BBC who have "defected" to ITV during recent years that this wouldn't surprise me one single bit.

Let's not forget as well that Carol Kirkwood was employed by the BBC back when they used to get their forecasts from the Met Office, but they now get their forecasts from Meteogroup instead whereas ITV get their forecasts from the Met Office these days.

This means that in order to maintain any ties which Carol Kirkwood has with the Met Office, she would have to have moved to another TV company such as ITV anyway, which still gets their forecasts from the Met Office.

 

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Apparently she’s never left BBC, but seems to have stuck to the more social elements... Morning TV, Strictly etc

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I watch her regularly on BBC Breakfast

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I watch her regularly on BBC Breakfast

Yes, and here is some evidence of the fact that she is indeed, still with the BBC.

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Saturday 9 Jan - Monday 18 Jan

Showers will affect the southeast initially on Saturday with light rain and hill snow moving into northern Scotland through the day, but most areas should stay dry with some sunny spells as any patchy freezing fog slowly clears. Confidence is low from here on, but a shift to more unsettled conditions is likely through Sunday and into next week as high pressure moves to the southwest of the UK and allows periods of wetter and at times milder weather to move in. Intermittent periods of rainfall and strong winds are expected, especially in the north of the country, though colder spells are likely between these. Southern areas will see more settled conditions, staying drier, clearer and calmer. Temperatures will probably be slightly below average overall, with frosts possible in places.

Monday 18 Jan - Monday 1 Feb

Confidence is low during this time, but more unsettled conditions are signalled to affect at least southern and central parts of the UK, with drier and colder weather being retained in the north. Whilst generally remaining colder than average, some milder interludes are possible in the south around the beginning of this period. Later in the month, an increased chance of colder conditions returning nationwide. Throughout, there remains a risk of snowfall and other wintry hazards for some parts of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

See they're still hedging their bets...

The 'increased chance' will be a reference to the SSW

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Saturday 9 Jan - Monday 18 Jan

Showers will affect the southeast initially on Saturday with light rain and hill snow moving into northern Scotland through the day, but most areas should stay dry with some sunny spells as any patchy freezing fog slowly clears. Confidence is low from here on, but a shift to more unsettled conditions is likely through Sunday and into next week as high pressure moves to the southwest of the UK and allows periods of wetter and at times milder weather to move in. Intermittent periods of rainfall and strong winds are expected, especially in the north of the country, though colder spells are likely between these. Southern areas will see more settled conditions, staying drier, clearer and calmer. Temperatures will probably be slightly below average overall, with frosts possible in places.

 

Surely frosts should still be possible in places even in above average temperatures in early January! Pathetic.

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Sunday 10 Jan - Tuesday 19 Jan

Sunday begins with a band of cloud and patchy rain pushing in southeast across Scotland. Brighter and colder conditions follow to the far northeast of Scotland and Northern Isles, though further wet weather is likely later. Into Monday, high pressure to the west will decline allowing Atlantic frontal systems to bring in milder conditions, with temperatures closer to the average for this time of year, though further wintry hazards across the far north. Then past Wednesday, as this high pressure develops to the southwest of the UK, mobile and cyclonic northwesterly flows bring unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent.

Tuesday 19 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 10 Jan - Tuesday 19 Jan

Sunday begins with a band of cloud and patchy rain pushing in southeast across Scotland. Brighter and colder conditions follow to the far northeast of Scotland and Northern Isles, though further wet weather is likely later. Into Monday, high pressure to the west will decline allowing Atlantic frontal systems to bring in milder conditions, with temperatures closer to the average for this time of year, though further wintry hazards across the far north. Then past Wednesday, as this high pressure develops to the southwest of the UK, mobile and cyclonic northwesterly flows bring unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent.

Tuesday 19 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

'Occasional colder' temperatures.

A 'signal' for Atlantic mobility to weaken. 

Still a 'chance' of cold air outbreaks.

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Downgrade or what, compared to previous updates? I wonder if their long range outlooks are based on GFS Operational runs? If the GFS run goes cold /blocked does this mean their long range outlook will be updated in line with the GFS runs?

Keep in mind this was yesterday's update:

Friday 8 Jan - Sunday 17 Jan

Some outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are likely across central areas initially, with wintry showers also feeding in from the North Sea. Through Friday precipitation will be tending to decay in both of these regions, with cold, fine and dry conditions becoming more widespread. Over the weekend conditions across the country are likely to turn more unsettled with cloud and patchy rain spreading east and temperatures recovering to near average for many, by this time the risk of sleet and snow will most likely become confined to the north of the country. Through the following week rather cold conditions are most likely to re-establish nationwide, with northern and western areas continuing to see frosts.

Saturday 16 Jan - Saturday 30 Jan

Confidence is low during this time but more unsettled conditions may continue to affect at least southern and central parts of the UK, with drier and colder weather being retained in the north. Whilst generally remaining colder than average some milder interludes are possible in the south. Later in the month an increased chance of colder conditions returning nationwide. Throughout there is a risk of snowfall and other wintry hazards.

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Lets remember that the extended is based on the EC46 which came out last night, which looking at is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of what you would see after an SSW, with high level blocking waning away as the weeks went on.

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I know this has already been discussed, and isn’t especially unusual, but a very snowy spell for Madrid later this week.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/ezjmun1p8#?date=2021-01-08

In fact could be quite a significant snow event for much of mainland Spain, lots of amber warnings out on AEMET

http://www.aemet.es/en/eltiempo/prediccion/avisos?w=pmna

 

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I know this has already been discussed, and isn’t especially unusual, but a very snowy spell for Madrid later this week.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/ezjmun1p8#?date=2021-01-08

In fact could be quite a significant snow event for much of mainland Spain, lots of amber warnings out on AEMET

http://www.aemet.es/en/eltiempo/prediccion/avisos?w=pmna

 

850s look nothing special at all, around -4, but then they have the altitude advantage.

And I bet their forecast snowfall four or five days out doesn't vanish like it always does over here!

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Some SSW chat and graphics on BBC weather for the week!

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The Times reporting this morning that scientists think the current SSW is significant:

The latest study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, involved the analysis of 40 SSW events over the past 60 years.

Dr Richard Hall, lead author of the study, said there was an increased chance of extreme cold and snow over the next week or two. “Today’s SSW is potentially the most dangerous kind,” he said.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/beast-from-the-east-ii-could-strike-britain-soon-nq96329gs

 

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