Last year, I didn't think that it couldn't get any worse than what it was then in terms of the temperature and the number of frosts and to set the scene from what I am about to say, I will refer you all to this post which is my own contribution towards the statistics thread for last December which was started by the TWO user forum called four on New Year's Day at the very beginning of this year.
In particular, I would like to focus on this part of that particular post:-
Given below, are the final December statistics for Edinburgh, Gogarbank from all of the data which I have available which are:
Temperature (°C):
Lowest Min: -4.7 (on 1/12)
Highest Min: 9.8 (on 28/12)
Mean Min: 3.2
Min. Anomaly: +2.1
Lowest Max: 4.9 (on 14/12)
Highest Max: 12.6 (on 10/12)
Mean Max: 8.5
Max. Anomaly: +1.9
Ave. Temp.: 5.8
Temp. Anomaly: +2.0
Air Frosts: 3 (24.4% of 1981-2010 average)
Ice Days: 0
In that post, I then went on to refer to the number of air frosts as abysmal as we had less than a quarter of the 1981-2010 December average for the number of air frosts at the above mentioned station at that time.
Now, fast forward almost a year and we have this scenario for the temperatures at this same station as at the end of 22 December 2020:-
Temperature (°C):
Lowest Min: -0.9 (on 7/12)
Highest Min: 9.4 (on 18/12)
Mean Min: 3.7
Min. Anomaly: +2.6
Lowest Max: 2.5 (on 3/12)
Highest Max: 13.9 (on 18/12)
Mean Max: 8.3
Max. Anomaly: +1.7
Ave. Temp.: 6.0
Temp. Anomaly: +2.2
Air Frosts: 2 (16.3% of 1981-2010 average)
Ice Days: 0
From that, we can see that with just over a week left of this month, we have still had fewer air frosts during this month that we had in this same month during last year, and that we still need at least one more air frost between now and the end of this month just to at least match last year's total.
In addition to that, the lowest temperature during this month so far is lower than what it ended up being in this same month during last year, which is very poor fare indeed for a so-called "winter" month, especially when there is just over a week left of that month.
Furthermore, the highest temperature of this month so far is already higher than the highest temperature of this same month during last year, and even the overall temperature anomaly is slightly worse than what it ended up as in this same month during last year.
That is all happening despite those really interesting charts which kept on popping up in the model output, which has pointed towards the possibility of a protracted much colder period ahead.
This shows how little, these models can be trusted because as far as this month is concerned, it is on course to be even worse than this same month during last year in terms of the temperatures and the number of air frosts.
Last year at this time, I didn't think that these factors could possibly be any worse than what they were then, but I am already being proved wrong on that front and this is something which just keeps on happening every winter, year after year.
Tonight is yet another example of how we just cannot get a frost here because now, we find ourselves once again in the worst possible position in terms of being any sort of "interesting" weather, in relation to yet another southerly tracking low because once again, we are too far to the north to get any precipitation from that and yet, too far south to be in the clearer air which would allow us to have even a chance of getting a frost.
What happens then, is that the temperatures then refuse to drop due to there being too much cloud around and yet there is nothing happening in terms of any actual weather. This is something which happens time and time again and from that, it should come as no surprise that this then plays a very major part in where I live, being the most boring place on average when it comes to our weather.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.