The numbers from the virus surveillance from the ONS are not good, they show ~8,700 new infections per day over the last 2 weeks (61,000 per week) in the general population (hospitals and care homes are excluded). Track and trace has little chance of succeeding with these kind of numbers and a further relaxation of the lockdown can easily cause an increase.

At 'present' 0.25% of our population is infected, most other European countries have significantly lower numbers.

Yes and clearly what the Zoe app has been showing for 10 days. We are moving to a neutral stage where I think people are all looking to compromise. The vulnerable are now somewhat better protected than they were at the start of the outbreak. The general population have some understanding of social distancing. I think what will happen next is we will cruise along accepting a hundred deaths a day' knowing they will be mostly either people with underlying conditions or the elderly. Continued excuses will be made to get back to nearer normality which let's face it most people will want. Then there will be a large number of people like me who will more or less continue with the current rules and take my own calculated risks bearing in mind my own situation. (which I hasten to add is easy, retired, 70, not too much underlying). 

 

I think you must have missed my lengthy discussion of this earlier today, page one I think. All very interesting.

👍 and thanks to Darren too. 

 

Of course they do, that's an outrageous question. Okay, they call it sitting in the rain with a coat on, but it's essentially the same thing

Odd; I thought it was called winter sports. You can get a decent tan from the sun bouncing back off the snow.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

2,615 new cases today... it's down a bit from last week, but still far higher than our European neighbours. R must be pretty high still (presumably still below 1, though), as otherwise these would be going down a lot faster.

It has always been mooted that we're a couple of weeks behind some of the other European countries, so wouldn't that make sense?

Nope! As I mentioned the other day, we're now further away than 2 weeks.

The past three days have seen around 2500 cases a day here.

Go back 2 weeks and the 3 day averages are:

Spain: 2898

Italy: 1307

France: 1776

The Spain figure is deceptive - there was a 3-day spike of higher values, for whatever reason. France's figures were 1089/3640/600, so they also saw a spike.

 

Nope! As I mentioned the other day, we're now further away than 2 weeks.

The past three days have seen around 2500 cases a day here.

Go back 2 weeks and the 3 day averages are:

Spain: 2898

Italy: 1307

France: 1776

The Spain figure is deceptive - there was a 3-day spike of higher values, for whatever reason. France's figures were 1089/3640/600, so they also saw a spike.

 

 

 

"I think we should be more stricter like Spain and none of us should be allowed out."

Tell me again about that 'British common sense'. https://t.co/lAqPtreP4Y

— James O'Brien (@mrjamesob) May 21, 2020

Brian, we really do need a face-palm emoji.

If I've understood his point correctly, the Herbert with the Coors bottle is saying that he thinks there's going to be a 'more stricter' lockdown anyway, so he may as well be part of the problem that causes there to probably be a 'more stricter ' lockdown.

 

 

Brian, we really do need a face-palm emoji.

 

If I've understood his point correctly, the Herbert with the Coors bottle is saying that he thinks there's going to be a 'more stricter' lockdown anyway, so he may as well be part of the problem that causes there to probably be a 'more stricter ' lockdown.

Yup, that's what he 'finks'.

Regional data for new cases today in England

The 7 English regions 

• London +49 (0.2%) 26,628


• Midlands +190 (0.8%) 24,827


• North West +163 (0.7%) 24,295


• North East and Yorkshire +155 (0.7%) 23,337


• South East +127 (0.6%) 20,637


• East of England +83 (0.6%) 13,394


• South West +52 (0.7%) 7,422

The 10 local areas with the highest cases

• Kent +56 (1.2%) 4,618


• Lancashire +14 (0.4%) 3,420


• Birmingham +8 (0.2%) 3,348


• Hampshire +13 (0.4%) 3,206


• Essex +14 (0.4%) 3,121


• Surrey +12 (0.4%) 2,847


• Hertfordshire +8 (0.3%) 2,790


• Sheffield +5 (0.2%) 2,498


• Cumbria +8 (0.4%) 2,161


• Staffordshire +14 (0.7%) 2,133

The 10 local areas with the lowest cases

1. Rutland +1 (3.0%) 33


2. North East Lincolnshire 148 - No change


3. Isle of Wight +3 (1.7%) 181


4. Torbay 221 - No change


5. Bath and North East Somerset 230 - No change


6. Bracknell Forest 240 - No change


7. Windsor and Maidenhead +1 (0.4%) 280


8. Calderdale +2 (0.7%) 287


9. Portsmouth 313 - No change


10. Hartlepool 319 - No change

 

 

Brian, we really do need a face-palm emoji.

 

If I've understood his point correctly, the Herbert with the Coors bottle is saying that he thinks there's going to be a 'more stricter' lockdown anyway, so he may as well be part of the problem that causes there to probably be a 'more stricter ' lockdown.

Anything he says isn't worth taking seriously purely from the fact his drink of choice is Coors lager.

Regional data for new cases today in England

 

• Kent +56 (1.2%) 4,618

 

What IS it about Kent? It's been top of the pile for weeks now and in absolute terms we're now seeing more cases than London (and multiples more than any other county)...

 

What IS it about Kent? It's been top of the pile for weeks now and in absolute terms we're now seeing more cases than London (and multiples more than any other county)...

It is because it is to do with the postal address of the hospital or person who has died. So large parts of Bromley and Bexley come under Kent.

Back to my silence.

Test results suggest that 17% of people in London have antibodies, 5% outside London.

Daily slides

Social distancing

Tests and new cases

People in hospital

All settings deaths with 7-day rolling average

 

Anything he says isn't worth taking seriously purely from the fact his drink of choice is Coors lager.

Oi!

I see Matt Hancock is doing the briefing today. Has he lied yet?

Q. How can you tell when Matt Hancock is lying?

A. His lips move.

[yes, I love to regurgitate & rehash old jokes]