Probably because the 'R' number talked about on here, and by media expert's is based on the increase number of registered cases that have come about due to the increased testing. I suspect the government and their experts would have already factored in this  probability before making the decisions to lift restrictions. 

They will be monitoring what is happening in hospitals because they don't want the NHS to be overwhelmed - which didn't even happen with first wave.

That statement infers that the 2nd wave can't be bigger than the 1st.

Greater Manchester's track and trace system to start from next Tuesday although it sounds like it will still be developed after that time. Idea is that it helps with the more difficult cases where on the ground expertise is needed. Have heard of similar systems starting up elsewhere too.

'Greater Manchester’s own system would link in with that by taking on the difficult cases that can only be dealt with on the ground by people with expertise. Insiders said that despite the delays to the national version, a local one needed to be set up and in place as soon as possible in order to work with the data that does exist and avoid becoming overwhelmed.

Its focus could include cases in homeless hostels or domestic violence refuges, special schools, children’s homes, police stations and those who have mental health problems or could struggle to self isolate.'

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-set-up-track-18284761

 

 

That statement infers that the 2nd wave can't be bigger than the 1st.

 

It doesn't though it points out that it didn't the first time round.

 

Probably because the 'R' number talked about on here, and by media expert's is based on the increase number of registered cases that have come about due to the increased testing. I suspect the government and their experts would have already factored in this  probability before making the decisions to lift restrictions. 

They will be monitoring what is happening in hospitals because they don't want the NHS to be overwhelmed - which didn't even happen with first wave.

Are these experts you speak of, the ones who thought it was ok to proceed with the Cheltenham Festival?

 

Just saying. I am a stickler for fact checking. 

One family came all the way down from Manchester would you believe. Perhaps the prospect of 28c was better than 22c up there.

 

Agree with this completely. However, I'm beginning to wonder whether I'm missing something because there doesn't seem any great concern about a second wave at the moment.

Me too. Most of UK and Europe seem to be ploughing on with plans to reopen for tourists etc as if it’s nailed on the virus will just fade away. Unless it’s desperation / wishful thinking. 

 

It doesn't though it points out that it didn't the first time round.

The inference is  :-

"if it didn't EVEN happen in the 1st", ..... then it can't in the 2nd.

I can't see how a 2nd peak isn't "nailed on"  to be honest.

The  downward curve of  new cases in the latter stages  of the graphs is very gradual - which infers an R0 extremely  close to 1.  

Surely the relaxation of Social Distancing we have seen in the last period is enough to materially raise RO ?

 

 

There wont be a second "peak", because even the dumbest pleb is now aware of social distancing and hygiene. You will just have a steady daily number. Probably about 100 deaths a day. In the US its about 1000

 

I was driving keeping my eyes on the road and just about every damn f that was crossing the road nearly getting run over to get to the beach wasn't white English I can assure you. 

Why didnt you run them over? They are probably all on benefits anyway

 

 

 

The inference is  :-

"if it didn't EVEN happen in the 1st", ..... then it can't in the 2nd.

 

wrongly quoting i see

Here are the some of the faces who have died from COVID-19.

Mothers, Daughters, Grandads, Grandmothers.

It would take 88hrs to go through every single person has died.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52676411

It’s heartbreaking when you actually see the faces behind the numbers.

Which is why the press are so desperate to talk about "militant trade unions" and Steve Coogan using furlough

Surely it can only be a matter of time before Chris Patten is smoked out as a communist by the New Brexit Party? Patten was always on the in the liberal wing of the Tory Party but now he's been left beached completely by their shift to nationalism. 

Making migrant care workers pay NHS surcharge 'immoral' and 'monstrous', says former Tory chair
Chris Patten, the former Conservative party chairman, told Emma Barnett on Radio 5 Live this morning that requiring migrant care workers to pay the NHS surcharge was “immoral”. He said:

It’s appalling, it’s immoral. We depend in our care homes on people who come from other countries. I think this is monstrous that people who come from overseas to help and risk their lives in really difficult circumstances aren’t treated properly.

There’s a basic sense of fair play in this country which I hope Mr Johnson will recognise. It would be madness and wickedness not to recognise the contribution which these people are making. It would be awful if we were to make people pay more when they are making such a big contribution to the well-being of older people in society.

 

There wont be a second "peak", because even the dumbest pleb is now aware of social distancing and hygiene. You will just have a steady daily number. Probably about 100 deaths a day. 

This has probably deemed an `accebtable` number of deaths and it is pretty clear the strategy again is herd immunity and there will be no more lockdowns unless the burden on the NHS looks like being to heavy.I fully expect the whole of the economy to be back open with social distancing in July. I bet you a pint you will be able to go to the pub again in 2 months time.

 

This has probably deemed an `accebtable` number of deaths and it is pretty clear the strategy again is herd immunity and there will be no more lockdowns unless the burden on the NHS looks like being to heavy.I fully expect the whole of the economy to be back open with social distancing in July. I bet you a pint you will be able to go to the pub again in 2 months time.

*Careful. Beast will be salivating!

 

Why didnt you run them over? They are probably all on benefits anyway

 

I did try to. Slippery buggers! 😃

I’ve seen this site posted several times
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

But I have a question - the x axis seems to be stuck on 11 May. How do I get up to date data? I understand there is a weeks lag, so surely it should be showing up to 14th May? 

Edit: just noticed it is showing more recent data, but only labelled the 11th. Specsavers for me!

Looks like symptom reports starting to increase slightly. 

When you heard stories coming out of France or somewhere abroad before it really hit here on care homes you were thinking this is a bomb waiting to go off.

Quite, Phil. I surprised more folks are not commenting on the care home story - the hidden tragedy...

 We have an Italian wing to the family near Rome and so heard it all - they kept saying "You must learn from our experience".

On another tack: My brother is in a horrible bind - most of his work in is China, Russia or Brazil!

R.

NHS England has reported 187 new hospital deaths up from 166 yesterday

Last Thursday. NHS England reported 207 new hospital deaths

 

One family came all the way down from Manchester would you believe. Perhaps the prospect of 28c was better than 22c up there.

https://youtu.be/mNi2uzOsygI

This view they seem to be SD despite the title.

 

This has probably deemed an `accebtable` number of deaths and it is pretty clear the strategy again is herd immunity and there will be no more lockdowns unless the burden on the NHS looks like being to heavy.I fully expect the whole of the economy to be back open with social distancing in July. I bet you a pint you will be able to go to the pub again in 2 months time.

Before that I'm sure, they will open in July, but it may not be worth it with social distancing and a limit on entries. Also no cash payments and only use of the App would remove half their custom at a swipe

For Some pubs it would not be financially viable to open until all restrictions are lifted