I took a break from these threads and the news for a few days and a quick catch up this morning suggests I should stay away for longer:

• we still don't have a proper testing capacity (we are not testing enough people and we are not getting the results quickly enough)


• the TTI strategy is still not in place


• the outbreaks in the care homes are still not under control


• The number of new infections is till too high


• Despite the shambolic handling of the epidemic in care homes, the govt continues to lie openly and brazenly (the PM said that there was a lockdown in care homes before the general lockdown and Hancock said that there was a protective ring since February)


• The truth is that not only adequate PPE and testing was not made available to care homes, but they were forced to receive hospital patients without a test, with the authorities essentially seeding and spreading the virus in care homes


• Many people still refuse to acknowledge the catastrophic errors made by the govt; they are effectively legitimise them and they contribute towards lower standards of governance and leadership

Although I am not confident, I still think that we'll probably avoid a second significant surge and we'll just 'muddle through' in a relatively low plateau of new infections and deaths for several months culminating in the worst number of excess deaths in Europe, despite our hugely significant time advantage compared to the rest of Europe. 

 

Good post. Please do continue to pop in every now and then for you to provide a much-needed sanity check. :D 

A Covid19 Bank Holiday?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52674914

A Covid19 Bank Holiday?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52674914

 

 I'd have thought we're more likely to need a circuit breaker in the autumn than an opportunity to go for beanos. There seems to be a growing assumption we are past the worst of C19. I hope that turns out to be the case but I remain very doubtful. 

As tragic as this is, it’s nothing new and neither is the fact that the virus is so deadly to the elderly and those with underlying conditions.  It’s therefore not unreasonable to expect care home residents to be doubly vulnerable, as they’re generally there for those two reasons.  

For this obvious reason, the emphasis is that care homes need shielding and protecting by every means possible.

Bit late now! Your continued excuse making for such obvious govt failings is breathtaking.  I understand why Maunder does it, but I didn't think you were so tribal, but perhaps I was wrong and Brexit has changed everything

 

Bit late now! Your continued excuse making for such obvious govt failings is breathtaking.  I understand why Maunder does it, but I didn't think you were so tribal, but perhaps I was wrong and Brexit has changed everything

 

Beast, in all honesty I doubt that you care than much, but I understand why you post as you do - it is all posturing to score pointless political points. If we had a Corbyn Government you would no doubt be stretching every sinew to defend the government, regardless.

I took a break from these threads and the news for a few days and a quick catch up this morning suggests I should stay away for longer:

• we still don't have a proper testing capacity (we are not testing enough people and we are not getting the results quickly enough)


• the TTI strategy is still not in place


• the outbreaks in the care homes are still not under control


• The number of new infections is till too high


• Despite the shambolic handling of the epidemic in care homes, the govt continues to lie openly and brazenly (the PM said that there was a lockdown in care homes before the general lockdown and Hancock said that there was a protective ring since February)


• The truth is that not only adequate PPE and testing was not made available to care homes, but they were forced to receive hospital patients without a test, with the authorities essentially seeding and spreading the virus in care homes


• Many people still refuse to acknowledge the catastrophic errors made by the govt; they are effectively legitimise them and they contribute towards lower standards of governance and leadership

Although I am not confident, I still think that we'll probably avoid a second significant surge and we'll just 'muddle through' in a relatively low plateau of new infections and deaths for several months culminating in the worst number of excess deaths in Europe, despite our hugely significant time advantage compared to the rest of Europe. 

 

What he said!

Yes, there will be no second surge because the public are now aware of social distancing and hand washing etc. The virus will just rumble away in the background, killing about 100 a day. In America its plateaued at about 1000, but the voters dont seem bothered and Trump is heading for reelection!

I am not convinced we ever had a "time advantage", given the volume of international travel going through this country.

The virus was already rampant in the community before the lockdown - the reason why the government switched from track and trace to the "delay" phase was simply that we had exhausted our then testing and tracing capacity. From that moment, the die was cast - where I think the UK scored well was in preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed - that was the sole Government priority at the time - even sending people from hospitals to care homes was part of that overriding aim.

When looking at those who have died with COVID-19 - we need to separate those who should have survived from those who were on their last legs and maybe had their lives shortened by a few weeks or months.

Celebrating a nonagenarian recovering from COVID-19 is all well and good, but it does not amount to a hill of beans - I would rather celebrate the patients in their 50s and 60s who recover.

 

Is this the sort of guff you get told to repeat by Central Office?

Of course we had a time advantage! Italians were warning us and begging us to prepare. Other countries like Germany and Greece did. Boris spent most of February sorting out his divorce from his cancer stricken second wife, whom he left for a blonde intern whom had he accidentally impregnated (and this one couldnt be aborted)

Government basically saying they have been fed rubbish by the scientists.

It was only a matter of time before that happened. I'd be the last one to defend the govt, but I have to admit that some of the scientific advice seems to have been poor and too rigid. We obviously don't know what exactly has happened and only a full disclosure of the advice and the minutes from the various meetings could shed some light. 

One of the reasons why I stopped watching the govt briefings is when I felt that govt scientists were no longer talking and behaving like scientists. A lot of what has been said was also misguided IMO. Here are some examples (direct quotes) from Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England:

• “We’ve looked at what sorts of interventions might help manage this as we go forward, push the peak of the epidemic forward, and in general, those sorts of events and big gatherings are not seen to be something which is going to have a big effect. So we don’t want to disrupt people’s lives.”


• “There comes a point in a pandemic where tracing is not an appropriate intervention.”


• “the UK was an international exemplar in preparedness”


• "Doctors should have a more adult conversation about the lack of PPE"


• "It is very unlikely that care homes will be infected"

A Covid19 Bank Holiday?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52674914

Maybe for England only, to even-up the number of bank holidays we get.

(And, while I'm in a puckish mood, anyone spot the irony of the old "an extra break could have an economic downside" argument? It's on dodgy ground at best, but given all that's going on right now it's like adding a single drop of orange squash to a litre of water... you wouldn't notice the impact.)

 

Beast, in all honesty I doubt that you care than much, but I understand why you post as you do - it is all posturing to score pointless political points. If we had a Corbyn Government you would no doubt be stretching every sinew to defend the government, regardless.

 

I'm no longer a blind tribalist like you! I gave Corbyn a chance early on, but voted for Smith in the leadership challenge. I then gave him a second chance after the 2017 election success, but then he blew it. His response to the Salisbury poisoning episode was the time when I realised that you cant polish a turd

BTW, still waiting for your defence of Priti the Bitch's Immigration Bill and charging foreign nurses and care workers £600

I am not convinced we ever had a "time advantage", given the volume of international travel going through this country.

The virus was already rampant in the community before the lockdown - the reason why the government switched from track and trace to the "delay" phase was simply that we had exhausted our then testing and tracing capacity. From that moment, the die was cast - where I think the UK scored well was in preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed - that was the sole Government priority at the time - even sending people from hospitals to care homes was part of that overriding aim.

When looking at those who have died with COVID-19 - we need to separate those who should have survived from those who were on their last legs and maybe had their lives shortened by a few weeks or months.

Celebrating a nonagenarian recovering from COVID-19 is all well and good, but it does not amount to a hill of beans - I would rather celebrate the patients in their 50s and 60s who recover.

 

Even if I could prove mathematically that most of what you say above is wrong, it wouldn't make much difference - your cognitive dissonance is maxed up. Something like 80% of your posts in these threads have been about borders anyway, the rest is almost like inconvenient detail to you.

In terms of 'what ifs' i think that Hunt would have done a better job. He was clearly very worried about government strategy in early March and would have good knowledge of the level of preparation in the NHS.

It was only a matter of time before that happened. I'd be the last one to defend the govt, but I have to admit that some of the scientific advice seems to have been poor and too rigid. We obviously don't know what exactly has happened and only a full disclosure of the advice and the minutes from the various meetings could shed some light. 

One of the reasons why I stopped watching the govt briefings is when I felt that govt scientists were no longer talking and behaving like scientists. A lot of what has been said was also misguided IMO. Here are some examples (direct quotes) from Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England:

• “We’ve looked at what sorts of interventions might help manage this as we go forward, push the peak of the epidemic forward, and in general, those sorts of events and big gatherings are not seen to be something which is going to have a big effect. So we don’t want to disrupt people’s lives.”


• “There comes a point in a pandemic where tracing is not an appropriate intervention.”


• “the UK was an international exemplar in preparedness”


• "Doctors should have a more adult conversation about the lack of PPE"


• "It is very unlikely that care homes will be infected"

 

 Its only when you read the quotes back do you realise how poorly they reflect on Jenny Harries. They are monumentally bad. Surely even she would read those back and think 'what was I thinking'

Its a bit like those memories on Facebook when you read them back and think WTF. In her case we are talking weeks and they HAVE NOT aged well at all.  

Snow in hell:

https://twitter.com/NBCDFW/status/1262566379343003652

Surely all the Brexiters and other fanatics should be apoplectic over the choice of metric measurements for social distancing. Why are we told to stay 2 metres away from everybody else? Surely the advice should be to keep a distance of 78.74 inches?

Government basically saying they have been fed rubbish by the scientists.

Now the government blames SCIENTISTS for Coronavirus failures: Furious finger-pointing breaks out over testing fiasco and failure to protect care homes as Cabinet minister Therese Coffey says blunders were down to 'wrong' science advice

 

A furious blame game erupted today as a Cabinet minister claimed government coronavirus blunders were down to 'wrong' science advice.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8333513/Several-lessons-learnt-handling-Covid-19-MPs-say.html

 

 

 

IMO, this sounds very much like a case of B.S.E: Blame Someone Else.

Surely all the Brexiters and other fanatics should be apoplectic over the choice of metric measurements for social distancing. Why are we told to stay 2 metres away from everybody else? Surely the advice should be to keep a distance of 78.74 inches?

IDS wants us to comply with European standards and reduce the distance to 1.5m. Utterly bizarre. I assume for him £s trump Brexit ideology. 

Does the Daily Mail ever contain a headline that doesn't include "furious", "outrage" or "fiasco"?

UK data

• Tests - 89,784


• People in hospital - 10,025 up from 9,408 yesterday


• Positive cases - 2,412


• All settings deaths - 545