Cracking piece by Warner in the Tele: 

How can the UK’s handling of the pandemic be in any way described as “a success”, the Prime Minister’s depiction of it when he returned from his sick bed? Even as cheerleading pep talk, it lacks all credibility.
...
This peculiarly British mentality is the curse of our post-War economy, and has been horribly exposed for the sham it is by the country’s repeatedly backfooted approach to the crisis.
...
Britain looks as if it is going to end up with the worst of both worlds: the highest death rate in Europe and a completely bombed-out economy to boot. Not a great backdrop to be celebrating the 75th anniversary of VE Day.
...
Yet if there is one good thing that might eventually come out of this almighty mess, it is the realisation that the age of the gifted, winging-it amateur is over. It’s no longer sufficient to see the country through, if indeed it ever was.
...
For the moment, Johnson is riding high in the polls, confirming the old rule that at times of crisis, people are desperate to put their trust in the presiding government.
...
But once the dust has settled, voters will see the mistakes and the wrong turns; they’ll see the phoney salesman behind the leader. And if he continues to get it wrong, they will punish him.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/10/crisis-has-exposed-leaders-blind-optimists-salesmen/

 

Good Lord! I never thought I would see the day I'd be praising Warner and the Torygraph!

The Barclay brothers are clearly not happy with their former pupil. They wanted a proper ending of lockdown, not this half baked crap, but we end with worst of both worlds and falling between two stools

---

 but we end with worst of both worlds and falling between two stools

There are papers which claim to show that US cities that took aggressive early action with the Spanish flu had a much better health *and* economic outcome (their economies recovered much more quickly). However, that virus was killing mainly younger people, so I don't think it applies necessarily to the current pandemic. 

This Tweet has a clip from the Spiegelhalter interview. "Far more people have died" than the official government number.

 

The government’s daily briefings on #Covid_19 are "not trustworthy communication of statistics" says Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge#Marr https://t.co/TTJMcT0lgb pic.twitter.com/BEKFRhg23H

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) May 10, 2020

---

 

That's not quite right, though, is it. The virus is a threat to everyone but the threat level increases with age. Then you are to factor in the other risks associated with gender, certain pre-existing conditions and genetic factors, particularly but not solely to do with race.

'Staggeringly small' is fine until it's someone in your family that turns out to be in a higher risk group. 

'Staggeringly small' is also fine until you recognise that those people are still carriers and will pass the virus to others than may not be in the 'staggeringly small' group. 

It is a threat to everyone but it's not unreasonable to want to recognise the level of personal threat. To a young healthy person the threat certainly is staggeringly small, less in fact, than seasonal flu. Primarily this is a disease that is dangerous for the over 75's. 

See the interview with the Prof on Marr.

 

 

He is so spot on.

In Greece and some other countries, the daily briefings have been done by scientists only and they attracted huge audiences with very high levels of trust. The PM and other ministers only did occasional press conferences. They are stopping the daily briefings there now anyway as they have contained the epidemic (at this stage).

Not on that extract but I thought his take on the number of UK cases was very interesting

He did bemoan the fact (quite rightly) that the survey to establish the real number of cases still has not been completed and that this number is of importance.

He worked back from worldwide stats showing a mortality rate of between 0.5 and 1 per 100 cases to conclude that since we have about 35000 deaths in the UK, the real number of UK infections is in the range 3-6 million as compared to the published figure of around 200,000

 

---

Something that people and pundits don't appreciate is that the whole UK preparation was geared towards a flu pandemic, despite knowing since Jan that this is a coronavirus outbreak. Even the official names mention Influenza, SPI-M stands for Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling and then we have the Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B).

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response#expert-groups

As indeed was the rest of the world, because another major, deadly, 'flu pandemic was always the most likely scenario.   Until now, coronaviruses have not been nearly so virulent. 

And yes, it made perfect sense to get advice from scientific groups that were set up with the primary aim of monitoring and modelling 'flu viruses, given that covid-19 spreads and affects people in a very similar way to flu, even if it's technically a different type of virus.

---

He worked back from worldwide stats showing a mortality rate of between 0.5 and 1 per 100 cases to conclude that since we have about 35000 deaths in the UK, the real number of UK infections is in the range 3-6 million as compared to the published figure of around 200,000

 

Yes, many experts seem to think that only 5-10% of our population has been infected.

Wales has reported 223 new cases and 12 new deaths

As indeed was the rest of the world, because another major, deadly, 'flu pandemic was always the most likely scenario.   Until now, coronaviruses have not been nearly so virulent. 

And yes, it made perfect sense to get advice from scientific groups that were set up with the primary aim of monitoring and modelling 'flu viruses, given that covid-19 spreads and affects people in a very similar way to flu, even if it's technically a different type of virus.

That's all good, but my point is that (unlike other countries) we didn't adapt quickly:

• there was no modelling done of the impact of a lockdown until March


• even in mid-March there were UK govt officials saying that this cannot be contained. This is despite knowing at the time of the success of South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam etc. The mantra was (and repeated by some here) that ~all countries will have a ~similar outcome at the end. There are many more countries now that have managed to contain the virus, but of course it's still early.


• The decision to stop community testing and tracing on 12 March was also a big mistake. The main reason was lack of capacity, but the strategy could continue in areas with small numbers of infections. There has never been a single UK epidemic, but several local ones, all with their own different timelines, local characteristics etc.


• And the biggest mistake of them all is what happened in care homes, despite the pandemic preparations and exercises and despite Whitty's early warnings back in Jan/Feb. This is just unforgivable.

Scotland has reported 181 new cases and 10 new deaths

NHS England has reported 178 new hospital deaths down from 207 yesterday

Last Sunday. NHS England reported 246 new hospital deaths

It is a valid point.

Discounting Belgium in the tables due to them including suspected deaths in their figures, we are still 3rd worst in Europe going by deaths per million. Then when you've got the ONS figures saying the death toll is closer to 52k not 31k the point becomes invalid.

 I say it is a valid point due to the fact we failed to close our borders at the outset . Once the virus was here in numbers we were stuffed from the begining and the population density made it worse . By not keeping it out as much as possible from the outset put us on the backfoot right away . Who ever gave the scientific advice at the time was clearly not too bright.

Northern Ireland has reported 41 new cases and 5 new deaths

England's announcement of 177 new hospital deaths is the lowest daily announced deaths since March 26th (169)

Rolling chart for hospital deaths in England with backdated data

The 178 patients in England were aged between 32 and 98 years old

12 of the 178 patients aged between 58 and 95 years old had no known underlying health conditions

Regional breakdown of the 178 new hospital deaths

• North West - 44


• North East & Yorkshire - 32


• Midlands - 28


• London - 25


• East of England - 23


• South East - 18


• South West - 8

I wouldn't pay much attention to this.

I wouldn't either. We can vaccinate monkeys against it and there's no reason we can't do the same on us apes. (Side note: this'll create awkward ethical dilemmas if the successful vaccine turns out to have been tested on primates!)

What we should be pushing for in the meantime is much, much greater use of antibody testing, starting with anyone who had flu-like symptoms from February onwards.

---

 I wouldn't either. We can vaccinate monkeys against it and there's no reason we can't do the same on us apes. (Side note: this'll create awkward ethical dilemmas if the successful vaccine turns out to have been tested on primates!)

What we should be pushing for in the meantime is much, much greater use of antibody testing, starting with anyone who had flu-like symptoms from February onwards.

Agreed and I don't think a lack of phlebotomists can be used as a reason not to use the reliable antibody tests. I think most doctors and nurses know how to draw blood.

 

Breakdown of the 178 hospital deaths in England by date

• 33 on May 9th


• 88 on May 8th


• 27 on May 7th


• 24 between May 1st and May 6th


• 4 in April


• 2 in March with one on March 17th