llamedos
  • llamedos
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10 May 2020 06:01:54

"Big" announcement day .....


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Roger Parsons
10 May 2020 06:11:37

Originally Posted by: llamedos 


"Big" announcement day .....



My money is on some bizarre kind of "alert system" - cleft sticks with messages perhaps? Dowsing for infections?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52602635


R.


RogerP
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DEW
  • DEW
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10 May 2020 06:48:42

Originally Posted by: llamedos 


"Big" announcement day .....



Following the 'wisdom of crowds'? 


The lockdown seemed to have been driven by an ultimatum from Macron (see posts on here in March); now the 'unlockdown' appears to be driven by public activity. Why is this government always behind the curve?


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Brian Gaze
10 May 2020 06:55:09

ST is saying some of the easing measures have been put on hold for several weeks. Advisors are concerned the infection rate remains too high. They're warning of 100,000 deaths by the end of the year.


Edit: Apparently the target was 4000 infections per day but we're still running at 18000. Seems like we're heading for further disasters in the UK. 


Brian Gaze
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doctormog
10 May 2020 07:16:51

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


ST is saying some of the easing measures have been put on hold for several weeks. Advisors are concerned the infection rate remains too high. They're warning of 100,000 deaths by the end of the year.


Edit: Apparently the target was 4000 infections per day but we're still running at 18000. Seems like we're heading for further disasters in the UK. 



18000 new cases a day? Let me guess the number is from “a source”?


Gandalf The White
10 May 2020 07:23:14

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


ST is saying some of the easing measures have been put on hold for several weeks. Advisors are concerned the infection rate remains too high. They're warning of 100,000 deaths by the end of the year.


Edit: Apparently the target was 4000 infections per day but we're still running at 18000. Seems like we're heading for further disasters in the UK. 



The rate of decline was always expected to be very gradual and we’re, as you say, not at the level where anything more than a token easing is merited.  Unfortunately too many, although still a minority, have decided to disobey the current rules.


The threshold of 100,000 deaths only needs 300 per day from here and we’re still above that level.  That’s supported by your quoted 18,000 (identified) cases per day; given the CFR that’s also around 300 deaths.


 If the R value ticks above 1, as is almost inevitable as more people are out and about and interacting, I still expect another period of harsher constraints.


Obama’s description of the Trump administration’s woeful efforts could be repeated here. 


Johnson is very well educated and he will understand the word ‘gravitas’ but he seems incapable of linking the word with either his thinking, demeanour of words.


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doctormog
10 May 2020 07:28:41
If there are 18000 identified new cases a day why are only around 5000 or sometimes fewer being reported? If these numbers are known and verifiable they must be published.
Caz
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10 May 2020 07:45:46

Someone posted on Facebook:  


Remember, if Boris lifts lockdown restrictions today, it’s not because this is over!  It’s because there’s space for you in ICU!


Whatever the media has been reporting from their ‘unnamed sources’ I don’t think we’ll see much lifting!  No doubt the media will say the experts have changed their minds.  


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lanky
10 May 2020 07:47:15

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

If there are 18000 identified new cases a day why are only around 5000 or sometimes fewer being reported? If these numbers are known and verifiable they must be published.


The published figure must be the number of positive tests (confirmed cases)


No one has ever been able to determine how many cases go untested as they are very mild or asymptomatic. There was a plan to use the antigen test to do a random survey to try and get a handle on this figure but AFAIK this is still ongoing and nothing has been published


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Caz
  • Caz
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10 May 2020 07:48:53

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

If there are 18000 identified new cases a day why are only around 5000 or sometimes fewer being reported? If these numbers are known and verifiable they must be published.

If there are 18000 identified new cases a day, add on the unidentified cases and we’re well on our way to herd immunity!


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doctormog
10 May 2020 07:51:55
That is the whole point. Where does the 18000 come from? Could it actually be 10000 or 50000? There must be a verifiable source otherwise it is an unverifiable estimate which could be incredibly inaccurate. Numbers plucked from thin air are meaningless and unhelpful.
Roger Parsons
10 May 2020 07:54:48

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Someone posted on Facebook:  


Remember, if Boris lifts lockdown restrictions today, it’s not because this is over!  It’s because there’s space for you in ICU!


Whatever the media has been reporting from their ‘unnamed sources’ I don’t think we’ll see much lifting!  No doubt the media will say the experts have changed their minds.  



An "unnamed source" is as useful as a chocolate fireguard, Caz. Information/disinformation is leaked by untrustworthy or indiscreet people to someone equally irresponsible in order to undermine those in authority by bewildering someone gullible. Malice may be intended at any stage.


"Protecting our sources" might as well read "Freedom to lie".  Whistleblowers are not automatically public spirited heroes.


R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
llamedos
  • llamedos
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10 May 2020 07:55:00

Yesterday's UK data was 3896 new cases 


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Caz
  • Caz
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10 May 2020 07:57:25

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


An "unnamed source" is as useful as a chocolate fireguard, Caz. Information/disinformation is leaked by untrustworthy or indiscreet people to someone equally irresponsible in order to undermine those in authority by bewildering someone gullible. Malice may be intended at any stage.


"Protecting our sources" might as well read "Freedom to lie".  Whistleblowers are not automatically public spirited heroes.


R.


  Exactly Roger!   Much more sensible to be patient and get it from the horses mouth!  Speculation causes confusion and disappointment!


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Heavy Weather 2013
10 May 2020 07:59:32
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-50-000-tests-sent-to-the-us-due-to-lab-issues-11985900 

That’s 50,000 tests where we won’t know the results for days.

I though we were told this technical issues had been overcome?
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Justin W
10 May 2020 08:07:38

Fairly typical of this forum to blame the messenger. This govt's press strategy is based upon briefings by advisors who are unnamed. It is a condition of admittance to what today passes for the 'Lobby' that you agree not to name the three or four advisors who dish out these gems. Take the fiasco last week over the lifting of restrictions supposedly scheduled for tomorrow. That was not 'made up' by the press but briefed in advance by one or other of these advisors. 


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Gavin D
10 May 2020 08:09:36

Ulric
10 May 2020 08:10:52
"Big announcement" day coincides with the day when I have heard of the death of the first individual who is personally known to me - owner of a local business.
If someone succeeds in provoking you, realise that your own mind is complicit in the provocation. - Epicetus
SJV
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10 May 2020 08:13:06

A timeline of events that list the catastrophic decisions made by HMG and Boris in particular from the turn of the year. Scandalous, criminal and maddening. The fact that some on here still defend this government and refuse to lay any blame at their door is mind-boggling.


How Boris Johnson refused to fight the virus


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Caz
  • Caz
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10 May 2020 08:14:02

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-50-000-tests-sent-to-the-us-due-to-lab-issues-11985900

That’s 50,000 tests where we won’t know the results for days.

I though we were told this technical issues had been overcome?

According to Gavin, some tests take 7 days for results anyway, so I doubt it will make much difference!


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