Someone posted on Facebook:  

Remember, if Boris lifts lockdown restrictions today, it’s not because this is over!  It’s because there’s space for you in ICU!

Whatever the media has been reporting from their ‘unnamed sources’ I don’t think we’ll see much lifting!  No doubt the media will say the experts have changed their minds.  

Succinct and expressed brilliantly. 

👍

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The problem with “unnamed” is that is equates to “unaccountable”. Who cares if 90% turns out to be nonsense as no one can be held to account for confusing leaks, conflicting opinions, random statistics?

It’s not the messenger that is the problem it is the system that allows such influential stories to be released with no consequences to those responsible when they turn out to be garbage. I guess responsibility is something that needs to apply only to “us”.

That's quite an accurate observation of how things work these days. Responsibility, and thus risk, is assumed to rest with the individual.

Who's to blame? Why, the man on the Clapham omnibus of course!

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As I said when this was posted yesterday, I can't believe someone has created a website just to tell us that. 

Apologies, I didn't realise it had been posted yesterday 

Not sure what your issue with it being created in the first place though.

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I take your point, Justin. The media can have quite a fuzzy interpretation of this convention in my experience, but as you say the formality of the "lobby" is well understood. Equally, a confidential government adviser is not an unknown person, but someone providing confidential information and advice to a client. They will have accountability through that client and through law of course. What is not known if where much information on the Web has been gathered - even on here. Many of us have privileged or confidential information from previous "incarnations" which we would not discuss. I expect you do too. What I find obnoxious are the leakers or trolls who for money or attention and with the disingenuous excuse of "public good" put information into the public domain which they were contractually required to keep private. [From that I exclude making a report to the police if a law has been broken.]

The boredom factor is another issue - where the media have flogged an issue to death before those in charge have had the moment to present it. I have always disliked feeling I am being manipulated rather than being informed.

R.

I'm sure you would only feel you're being manipulated if you run out of

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From the Sunday Times:

In the first admission from within government that the lockdown might have been mishandled, a senior official said: “The view is that the public will forgive us for mistakes made when going into the lockdown but they won’t forgive us for mistakes made coming out of it.”

Forgive HMG for the ‘mistakes’ which have cost tens of thousands of lives?

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Maybe it was also that the enforcement was 'wishy washy'...

Met police group criticises 'wishy washy' government instructions

The government's pandemic response has been "wishy-washy", a body representing police officers in London has told BBC Radio 4, amid concerns that the public has begun ignoring lockdown restrictions.

Metropolitan Police Federation chairman Ken Marsh said authorities "needed to be firmer right from the beginning".

"Had we been very stringent from the off - it is painful, but it’s not overly painful in terms of what you’re actually being asked to do - then I think we would have a better result now," Marsh said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52601754

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The lengthening of the tail is the consequence of the measures, however inadequate, to limit the peak. If you want a symmetrical curve you do absolutely nothing and have a mega crisis with deaths into six digits and a collapsed healthcare system and then it's over. What we see is the result of a government that thought symmetry was worth considering, until reality bit hard.

Uk vs. European average.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=GBR+Europe

We're not covering ourselves in glory.

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Apologies, I didn't realise it had been posted yesterday 

Not sure what your issue with it being created in the first place though.

I posted it yesterday. I think it is a necessary record of the timeline of events.

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I posted it yesterday. I think it is a necessary record of the timeline of events.

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A timeline of events that list the catastrophic decisions made by HMG and Boris in particular from the turn of the year. Scandalous, criminal and maddening. The fact that some on here still defend this government and refuse to lay any blame at their door is mind-boggling.

How Boris Johnson refused to fight the virus

Don't read if you want to greet your Sunday in a good mood.

There is little doubt in my own mind that HMG's failure during the first couple of months of this year to realise the threat that Covid-19 posed to the UK and act sufficiently to mitigate its threat has led to many, many more people dying from the virus in this country than might otherwise have been the case. Even if I was a lifelong Conservative voter, I think I would find it almost impossible at the moment to defend the way the government has handled this crisis right from its beginning.

As I have said numerous times before, I don't blame HMG in any way for the virus appearing in the first place; we all know who was responsible for that. I think most people realise that it was going to be virtually impossible to keep it out of the UK for the duration and that lives would be lost once it did reach the UK. However, the fact that more than 30,000 have now died is, to me anyway, a disgrace to this nation and has exposed many serious shortcomings not only in what was and wasn't done during the months leading up to the crisis, but also over a much longer period of time.

Once this is over, I really think that a major root and brach review is going to be needed in the UK to find out where we have gone wrong as a country in the past, and to make sure we learn the lessons to ensure as much as is humanly possible that a catastrophe likes this never happens again.

 

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From the Sunday Times:

In the first admission from within government that the lockdown might have been mishandled, a senior official said: “The view is that the public will forgive us for mistakes made when going into the lockdown but they won’t forgive us for mistakes made coming out of it.”

Forgive HMG for the ‘mistakes’ which have cost tens of thousands of lives?

The prized arsehole Fraser Nelson said this on Marr. I suppose the polling backs him up and of course we see the comments on this forum constantly defending HMG and trying to blame the media

 

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From the Sunday Times:

In the first admission from within government that the lockdown might have been mishandled, a senior official said: “The view is that the public will forgive us for mistakes made when going into the lockdown but they won’t forgive us for mistakes made coming out of it.”

Forgive HMG for the ‘mistakes’ which have cost tens of thousands of lives?

You have misunderstood. The government has only been following 'The Science' which it turns out was flawed, and the people who have been dying are mainly old people who don't count because they would have died anyway, not to mention the fact that their death certificates have been purposely incorrectly filled out as part of a hard-left conspiratorial plot to bring down capitalism. The government have navigated this crisis brilliantly and cannot be faulted.

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Someone posted on Facebook  

 

The four most dangerous words in the English language

Facebook is a cancer of fake news and idiocy and should be shut down. We need to treat social media as a public health issue, like smoking or not wearing seat belts

 

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Ignoring the “unaccounted” deaths in places like Italy (see earlier post) that charting tool that Ulric posted is interesting. Picking the highest rates in Europe paints a clearer picture however the massive caveat is the different method of reporting between different countries.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=ITA+ESP+GBR+BEL+FRA+SWE 

In the same way our government and their numbers must be scrutinised we must not assume that other countries’ data are accurate or a genuine representation. What did cause those excess deaths in Italy that were not attributed to Covid-19 and is that reflected in other countries?

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The problem with “unnamed” is that is equates to “unaccountable”. Who cares if 90% turns out to be nonsense as no one can be held to account for confusing leaks, conflicting opinions, random statistics?

It’s not the messenger that is the problem it is the system that allows such influential stories to be released with no consequences to those responsible when they turn out to be garbage.

All these leaks and briefings are coming from your beloved Tory Govt! Its not the system, its the way this vile bunch of shysters chooses to operate

 

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I agree with her. The message will be interpreted as: no need to stay home, do what I like, but maybe wash my hands every now and then. 

The green colouring is also an odd choice - why not keep it red unless they’re deliberately trying to persuade us to think the danger is passing?

Agreed. Its literally a green light to do whatever you like. Of course, most things are still closed, but the shops that do open will be packed and household mixing will increase

 

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Stats bloke on Marr very impressive. He outlined the risks according to age - for young people the risk from Covid is staggeringly small. In contrast for the other end of the population age group the risk is very high. I suppose we already know that but the idea that the virus is a threat to everyone is simply not true for the young. 

 

The post implies the Government should be immune from criticism because, in a nutshell, we live in a crowded country compared to others in Europe. 

Everyone is lapping this of course, ignoring all the other epic failings by the Government. To many, they simply can do no wrong. Scary. 

This is basically the Culture wars we have imported from America, and all tied into Brexit.

Both countries are so bitterly divided almost 50/50, which is why the polling is so stable. Its the footballification of politics. You back your "team" or "tribe" no matter what.

Even if your Centre forward bites an ear off an opponent, you will back him to the bitter end (remember Luis Suarez, and all those Liverpool fans defending him!)

Trump and Boris supporters are Cult like in their loyalty and so much is invested in believing the Brexit and immigration lies, that its easier just to go along with it, rather than think for yourself, because that would mean admitting you have been conned

 

 

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On the subject of numbers, I found this article (from the Italian National Institute of Statistics) interesting. Out of the 25000 or so excess deaths from 20th Feb to the 31st March, only 54% of these excess deaths were attributed to Covid-19.

https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/05/Istat-ISS_-eng.pdf 

Surely that leaves only two main scenarios? Either the number of Covid-19 related deaths is significantly higher than reported in Italy or there is/was another serious underlying issue. I think analysis over time will paint a much clearer picture than daily statistics can mange.

I think the most likely answer lies within the report itself: "91% of the excess mortality registered at the average national level in March 2020 is concentrated in the areas of high spread of the epidemic".

Preliminary analysis of our excess mortality reveals a similar picture, it's much higher in areas with high number of infections and high numbers of hospital deaths. This implies that it's unlikely to be excess mortality related to the lockdown (heart attacks etc.) and more likely to be related to CV19.

 

All these leaks and briefings are coming from your beloved Tory Govt! Its not the system, its the way this vile bunch of shysters chooses to operate

 

At least you are consistent in always ignoring the key points of my posts to simply react with your usual nonsense knee jerk unfounded and baseless nonsense. In all this mess at least certain things can be relied on. 

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