Fairly typical of this forum to blame the messenger. This govt's press strategy is based upon briefings by advisors who are unnamed. It is a condition of admittance to what today passes for the 'Lobby' that you agree not to name the three or four advisors who dish out these gems. Take the fiasco last week over the lifting of restrictions supposedly scheduled for tomorrow. That was not 'made up' by the press but briefed in advance by one or other of these advisors. 

Exactly, and then HMG can come out and say that it was never policy. 

I also think there is a culture of fear amongst the lobby journos. We have a government that will remove access of they get asked the difficult questions.

Fairly typical of this forum to blame the messenger. This govt's press strategy is based upon briefings by advisors who are unnamed. It is a condition of admittance to what today passes for the 'Lobby' that you agree not to name the three or four advisors who dish out these gems. Take the fiasco last week over the lifting of restrictions supposedly scheduled for tomorrow. That was not 'made up' by the press but briefed in advance by one or other of these advisors. 

The problem with “unnamed” is that is equates to “unaccountable”. Who cares if 90% turns out to be nonsense as no one can be held to account for confusing leaks, conflicting opinions, random statistics?

It’s not the messenger that is the problem it is the system that allows such influential stories to be released with no consequences to those responsible when they turn out to be garbage. I guess responsibility is something that needs to apply only to “us”.

The Sunday papers is the first I’ve seen of the PM’s new slogan. It is of course for him to decide what’s most appropriate for England, but given the critical point we are at in tackling the virus, #StayHomeSaveLives remains my clear message to Scotland at this stage. https://t.co/zrnEgTC15H

— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 10, 2020

I agree with her. The message will be interpreted as: no need to stay home, do what I like, but maybe wash my hands every now and then. 

The green colouring is also an odd choice - why not keep it red unless they’re deliberately trying to persuade us to think the danger is passing?

A timeline of events that list the catastrophic decisions made by HMG and Boris in particular from the turn of the year. Scandalous, criminal and maddening. The fact that some on here still defend this government and refuse to lay any blame at their door is mind-boggling.

How Boris Johnson refused to fight the virus

Don't read if you want to greet your Sunday in a good mood.

No - you’re wrong because Facebook says so. 

https://www.facebook.com/722370783/posts/10157368704805784/?d=n

 

No - you’re wrong because Facebook says so. 

https://www.facebook.com/722370783/posts/10157368704805784/?d=n

 

[/quote It is a valid point.

 

The problem with “unnamed” is that is equates to “unaccountable”. Who cares if 90% turns out to be nonsense as no one can be held to account for confusing leaks, conflicting opinions, random statistics?

It’s not the messenger that is the problem it is the system that allows such influential stories to be released with no consequences to those responsible when they turn out to be garbage. I guess responsibility is something that needs to apply only to “us”.

You can euphemistically call it ‘the system’, Michael. Its more accurate name is ‘the Government’.

 

18000 new cases a day? Let me guess the number is from “a source”?

Marr has just mentioned 20,000 new cases a day? Where have all these come from as I thought we were reporting on the whole around 4k a day? If this is the case, really enforces that just about all figures are null and void, not just here. I suppose we are capturing the 4k. Is the extra 16k an estimate of those going undetected/not accounted for?

The rate of decline was always expected to be very gradual and we’re, as you say, not at the level where anything more than a token easing is merited.  Unfortunately too many, although still a minority, have decided to disobey the current rules.

The threshold of 100,000 deaths only needs 300 per day from here and we’re still above that level.  That’s supported by your quoted 18,000 (identified) cases per day; given the CFR that’s also around 300 deaths.

 If the R value ticks above 1, as is almost inevitable as more people are out and about and interacting, I still expect another period of harsher constraints.

Early on, it was always one of the important questions, in my mind at least, whether the curve would be symmetrical or be significantly skewed, with a long right tail. The measure of the effectiveness of control measures is the length of that tail.

No - you’re wrong because Facebook says so. 

https://www.facebook.com/722370783/posts/10157368704805784/?d=n

It is a valid point.

The post implies the Government should be immune from criticism because, in a nutshell, we live in a crowded country compared to others in Europe. 

Everyone is lapping this of course, ignoring all the other epic failings by the Government. To many, they simply can do no wrong. Scary. 

 

I agree with her. The message will be interpreted as: no need to stay home, do what I like, but maybe wash my hands every now and then. 

The green colouring is also an odd choice - why not keep it red unless they’re deliberately trying to persuade us to think the danger is passing?

Given the lamentable mixed messages over the last few days perhaps the new slogan should be:

YOUR GOVT GOT IT WRONG

TOO MANY HAVE DIED

WE DON'T HAVE A CLUE

 

Exactly, and then HMG can come out and say that it was never policy. 

I also think there is a culture of fear amongst the lobby journos. We have a government that will remove access of they get asked the difficult questions.

I also think there is a culture of fear amongst the lobby journos

 Yes very frightening i should imagine?

 

No - you’re wrong because Facebook says so. 

https://www.facebook.com/722370783/posts/10157368704805784/?d=n

 

It's a good job I'm not much of a drinker Joe! 

A timeline of events that list the catastrophic decisions made by HMG and Boris in particular from the turn of the year. Scandalous, criminal and maddening. The fact that some on here still defend this government and refuse to lay any blame at their door is mind-boggling.

How Boris Johnson refused to fight the virus

Don't read if you want to greet your Sunday in a good mood.

As I said when this was posted yesterday, I can't believe someone has created a website just to tell us that. 

The post implies the Government should be immune from criticism because, in a nutshell, we live in a crowded country compared to others in Europe. 

Everyone is lapping this of course, ignoring all the other epic failings by the Government. To many, they simply can’t do wrong. Scary. 

 I did mean the point about Population Density

 

I agree with her. The message will be interpreted as: no need to stay home, do what I like, but maybe wash my hands every now and then. 

The green colouring is also an odd choice - why not keep it red unless they’re deliberately trying to persuade us to think the danger is passing?

The green will be subliminal messaging. It’s a GO colour. 

This new messaging is a total clusterfuck. 

 

Early on, it was always one of the important questions, in my mind at least, whether the curve would be symmetrical or be significantly skewed, with a long right tail. The measure of the effectiveness of control measures is the length of that tail.

The lengthening of the tail is the consequence of the measures, however inadequate, to limit the peak. If you want a symmetrical curve you do absolutely nothing and have a mega crisis with deaths into six digits and a collapsed healthcare system and then it's over. What we see is the result of a government that thought symmetry was worth considering, until reality bit hard.

 

No - you’re wrong because Facebook says so. 

https://www.facebook.com/722370783/posts/10157368704805784/?d=n

 

It is a valid point.

Discounting Belgium in the tables due to them including suspected deaths in their figures, we are still 3rd worst in Europe going by deaths per million. Then when you've got the ONS figures saying the death toll is closer to 52k not 31k the point becomes invalid.

On the subject of numbers, I found this article (from the Italian National Institute of Statistics) interesting. Out of the 25000 or so excess deaths from 20th Feb to the 31st March, only 54% of these excess deaths were attributed to Covid-19.

https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/05/Istat-ISS_-eng.pdf 

Surely that leaves only two main scenarios? Either the number of Covid-19 related deaths is significantly higher than reported in Italy or there is/was another serious underlying issue. I think analysis over time will paint a much clearer picture than daily statistics can mange.

 

 I did mean the point about Population Density

I know you did, and I agree that it’s possible that we’re likely to be disproportionately affected by the virus because of this - hopefully this will eventually become clear. 

It’s more the fact that there’s an assumption by some that the Government have done no wrong.

Fairly typical of this forum to blame the messenger. This govt's press strategy is based upon briefings by advisors who are unnamed. It is a condition of admittance to what today passes for the 'Lobby' that you agree not to name the three or four advisors who dish out these gems. Take the fiasco last week over the lifting of restrictions supposedly scheduled for tomorrow. That was not 'made up' by the press but briefed in advance by one or other of these advisors. 

I take your point, Justin. The media can have quite a fuzzy interpretation of this convention in my experience, but as you say the formality of the "lobby" is well understood. Equally, a confidential government adviser is not an unknown person, but someone providing confidential information and advice to a client. They will have accountability through that client and through law of course. What is not known is where much information on the Web has been gathered - even on here. Many of us have privileged or confidential information from previous "incarnations" which we would not discuss. I expect you do too. What I find obnoxious are the leakers or trolls who for money or attention and with the disingenuous excuse of "public good" put information into the public domain which they were contractually required to keep private. [From that I exclude making a report to the police if a law has been broken.]

The boredom factor is another issue - where the media have flogged an issue to death before those in charge have had the moment to present it. I have always disliked feeling I am being manipulated rather than being informed.

R.