Met Office Hadley            10.7c.         Anomaly      -0.0c. Provisional to18th.

Metcheck                         10.65c        Anomaly      -0.75c

Netweather                      11.18c        Anomaly      -0.13c

Peasedown                  11.48c        Anomaly       -0.28c. 

GFS 12z gives me a final CET estimate of about 12°C - but I expect it's underestimating the day temps for Mon-Wed next week quite a bit.

Unclear if there will be a breakdown Thu or Fri followed by a fresher finish to the month. GFS has been keen on that for a couple of days now but other models are either taking longer over it or showing no interest at all.

Impressive if the month can finish even slightly above average, considering the extreme nature of the Arctic blast and subsequent widespread cold nights we saw 11th-14th.

Here, like with the CET region, the max is running well above the min in terms of anomaly, at +0.8°C and -2.2°C respectively, to 19th.

Yes, you read that right - over 2°C below the long-term average!

Met Office Hadley           11.0c         Anomaly        0.2c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                        10.99c       Anomaly        -0.42c

Netweather                     11.47c       Anomaly        0.18c

Peasedown St John       11.58c       Anomaly        -0.18c.  

GFS 12z gives me a final CET estimate of about 12°C - but I expect it's underestimating the day temps for Mon-Wed next week quite a bit.

 

Does anybody know why GFS is so awful at estimating temperatures during warm to hot weather? Even today's 00Z chart shows a max of 24C in the London area for today, so it can't even get it right for the same day! You would think that there would be some simple logic change to adjust temperatures upwards during certain weather conditions   

Met Office Hadley            11.3c.         Anomaly         0.5c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                         11.36c        Anomaly         -0.05c

Netweather                      11.83c        Anomaly         0.54c

Peasedown St John       11.6c          Anomaly         -0.08c. 

Met Office Hadley            11.3c.         Anomaly         0.5c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                         11.36c        Anomaly         -0.05c

Netweather                      11.83c        Anomaly         0.54c

Peasedown St John       11.6c          Anomaly         -0.08c. 

Can only see it going upwards to the end of the month now. Question is, how high will it get? And will there be much of a downwards revision?

 

 

Can only see it going upwards to the end of the month now. Question is, how high will it get? And will there be much of a downwards revision?

Yes only way is up and I am hoping for more than 13c 

 

Yes only way is up and I am hoping for more than 13c 

To up by 2 degrees in 10 days (a third of the month) would require a 6 degree increase for the last ten.

Hmmm....

 

Yes only way is up and I am hoping for more than 13c 

<<< checks table of monthly entries >>>

 - yes, you really are. I'd be more than happy with 13c (but I think the best I can hope for with the forecasts as they are is low-12's)

 

 

Can only see it going upwards to the end of the month now. Question is, how high will it get? And will there be much of a downwards revision?

Hi Saint

Probably up to around 12.8 and then revised down by a whopping 0.5 at least, so Id haggle around at a 12.3 finish, but it could pan out + or - 0.5c either way I suppose.

 

Hi Saint

 

Probably up to around 12.8 and then revised down by a whopping 0.5 at least, so Id haggle around at a 12.3 finish, but it could pan out + or - 0.5c either way I suppose.

Thanks, WI. The higher the better for me <<< checks table again >>> oh, and I see for you, too

 

 

Thanks, WI. The higher the better for me <<< checks table again >>> oh, and I see for you, too

 

13c is exactly what I need!  Does anyone know if yesterday was a date record?

13c is exactly what I need!  Does anyone know if yesterday was a date record?

Santon Downham was 28.2C yesterday for the UK max

Barbourne Worcs was 29.5C on 20 May 1992

so def no cigar !

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_d03f9194-2559-4de3-a582-a60644a76168/

 

Santon Downham was 28.2C yesterday for the UK max

Barbourne Worcs was 29.5C on 20 May 1992

so def no cigar !

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_d03f9194-2559-4de3-a582-a60644a76168/

 

Yes only way is up and I am hoping for more than 13c 

13C would be great! It'll likely fall a bit short of that but a high 12 figure wouldn't be too unexpected now.

Met Office Hadley           11.5c.       Anomaly        0.7c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                        11.68c      Anomaly       0.27c

Netweather                     12.12c      Anomaly       0.83c

Peasedown St John      12.18c       Anomaly       0.42c.    

Only a 0.2C jump in the last 24 hours? That's a surprise. Max temps for the 3 locations yesterday were 17, 24 and 25C. Perhaps some adjustment has been factored in for error correction?

The later it is in the month, the less impact an exceptionally hot or cold day will have on the running CET