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Nightmare output this afternoon copious amounts of rain by the looks of it. At least it will be warmer though. All hail Moomin!
Nightmare output this afternoon copious amounts of rain by the looks of it. At least it will be warmer though.
All hail Moomin!
Yep....horrendous sums it up. The GFS looks like Day After Tomorrow charts with 3-4 low pressures circulating around.
All because of that pesky low causing chaos.
I think it's fair to say we have agreement that the outlook won't be especially settled We'll see how the ECM sits this evening but all signs point to blocking over Scandi and shallow low pressure close by/over the UK. It's positioning will determine how warm we can get from continental air wafting our way. Hopefully some warmth, humidity and thunder in the mix later next week
It is far from the best outlook, but we're not in 'ark' or 'Day After Tomorrow' territory either Nobody has been proven right yet.
12z MetO
Tuesday - dry. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_72_1.png
Wednesday - rain in the NW but dry further south.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_96_1.png
Thursday - a band of rain pushing south but turning dry again from the north
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png
Friday - dry.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png
Sometimes the simple posts are the best to get some much needed perspective into this thread.
12z MetO Tuesday - dry. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_72_1.pngWednesday - rain in the NW but dry further south. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_96_1.pngThursday - a band of rain pushing south but turning dry again from the north https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.pngFriday - dry. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.pngSometimes the simple posts are the best to get some much needed perspective into this thread.
Doesn't look too bad and Moomin did say yesterday that we should go with UKMO model.
Absolutely right, we need to trust our own. 😀
The GFS has finally fallen in line with UKMO and ECM with the mid-week south-tracking low so there does seem to be more of an agreement of a more unsettled second half of the week. A bit of a disappointment for those hoping for a quick return to something resembling Summer.
Absolutely yes. I can't believe it will be as bad as GFS is now projecting. The models are literally all over the place at the moment. I concede defeat, I like everyone else, have no idea what the weather will be tomorrow, let alone next week, but safe to say "changeable".
I‘m only teasing Moomin and yes it does look a bit more unsettled than many of the charts were suggesting yesterday. To me that suggests a large degree of uncertainty. It may be okay or it may be a bit rubbish but I’m not sure which just yet.
Both GEM and the mighty NAVGEM go very hot at the end of their runs. Both have a low west of Ireland pumping up some serious heat. The next chase?
UKM seems a more moderate sensible solution, drying up by the weekend
It's a very realistic possibility, IMO
No evidence of a washout so far on the 12z ECM.
Proper easterly setting in though. Generally dry and warm but plenty of cloud in the east would be my best guess.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png
The best weather reserved for Shetland. ;-)
No evidence of a washout so far on the 12z ECM.Proper easterly setting in though. Generally dry and warm but plenty of cloud in the east would be my best guess.https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.pngThe best weather reserved for Shetland. ;-)
Yes it's the best of the big guns tonight. That little low is causing model chaos such a strange little feature will be very difficult for them to model accurately.
2010 had a little more than this year Doc, but going back to 2000 and more especially back to 1990 and before, iit is remarkable how much more sub -10 air there was at this date, but I agree the 2010 date was not much better. Hopefully the zonal winter will have thickened the ice this year to ensure some resilience.
An improved picture this morning more settled than yesterday. Temps should get to mid to high 20s in any sunshine from Friday. But with some thundery rain/thunderstorms to keep the farmers/gardener's happy.