You have a weird obsession with poor weather in early summer Mooms ?  Did you fall in a puddle or something as a child ? 

I hope that the ECM does verify to be honest, especially if that arrives with some warm air and thunder.

Actually, I am not quite so fussed about poor weather this year, what will be will be. But you're right, I do obsess about bad summer weather since cricket is my absolute passion in life and poor summers play havoc with this massively. Since there is no cricket, it can do as it pleases this year to be honest, but I can't just switch off, even so.

So yes, I am somewhat obsessed with summer weather, probably more so than winter....Although there is no cricket for me this year, I kind of still prefer summers to be summery, rather than perpetual Autumn.

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I think this morning's ECM is definitely a worse case scenario and an outlier for air pressure from day 5. Huge uncertainty where that low ends up day 4\5 even more than yesterday. The 12z ECM could be very different later.

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Actually, I am not quite so fussed about poor weather this year, what will be will be. But you're right, I do obsess about bad summer weather since cricket is my absolute passion in life and poor summers play havoc with this massively. Since there is no cricket, it can do as it pleases this year to be honest, but I can't just switch off, even so.

So yes, I am somewhat obsessed with summer weather, probably more so than winter....Although there is no cricket for me this year, I kind of still prefer summers to be summery, rather than perpetual Autumn.

Ahh that explains it ! Thanks Mooms, you're not weird after all. .

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By the 12th, there is no -10 air anywhere in the arctic circle, and I've struggled to find any years lie that from archives. Not sure if this will mean record ice melt, as others are more expert on that, but it's a phenominon worthy of note. All that polar air seems bent on heading in our direction - serving tweet the gardens watered, at least here in the East. Majorly soggy day here. The artic seems to be under attack with plumes of warm air from several directions. We seem to be on a rinse and repeat cycle of cold northerly incursions and high pressure easterly heat from the continent. The 12th is looking hot here in the east, at least if the GFS is modelling accurately. Bizarre jet too, strong and as convoluted as a Chinese dragon at New Year.

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By the 12th, there is no -10 air anywhere in the arctic circle, and I've struggled to find any years like that from archives. Not sure if this will mean record ice melt, as others are more expert on that, but it's a phenominon worthy of note. All that polar air seems bent on heading in our direction - serving to keep the gardens watered, at least here in the East. Majorly soggy day here. The artic seems to be under attack with plumes of warm air from several directions.

We seem to be on a rinse and repeat cycle of cold northerly incursions and high pressure easterly heat from the continent. The 12th is looking hot here in the east, at least if the GFS is modelling accurately.

Bizarre jet too, strong and as convoluted as a Chinese dragon at New Year.

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This is a classic Rossby wave amplitude problem, ie zonal vs meridional. The difference is the small trough than dips down the East coast midweek on the ECM, UKMO and GEM, and doesn’t appear on GFS or ICON (which is the best run this morning).

What triggers the difference? It seems to be the speed with which the deep low off Greenland moves East. On the two latter runs it is positioned between Greenland and Iceland on Wednesday morning, straightening the jet stream across the North Atlantic and keeping low pressure North. On the “bad” runs it stays East of Greenland allowing the blob to our North to sink down.

See differences in jet stream between ICON and ECM on Wed am:

 

Fantastic post, cheers for the explanation Tim. 

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ICON 06z stays on team zonal, and is if anything a touch better. GFS dripping out: so far (by Tuesday pm) not quite as strong a jet as 00Z.

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Fantastic post, cheers for the explanation Tim. 

Seconded!  I was also going to thank Tim S for an informative and intelligent analysis of the differences in the model output.

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Seconded!  I was also going to thank Tim S for an informative and intelligent analysis of the differences in the model output.

Thanks all. Sadly GFS seems to be losing its nerve at 06z.

 

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Thanks all. Sadly GFS seems to be losing its nerve at 06z.

 

Wed morning on 06 GFS. Crumpled jet.

 

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Looks like GFS 6Z has woken up and smelled the coffee (the trough scenario). Next week looking wet.

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Can someone please remind me how to contact a moderator?

 

Over 50% of pages taken over by one persons alternative requirements. All the useful stuff is lost!  Again!

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By the 12th, there is no -10 air anywhere in the arctic circle, and I've struggled to find any years lie that from archives. Not sure if this will mean record ice melt, as others are more expert on that, but it's a phenominon worthy of note. All that polar air seems bent on heading in our direction - serving tweet the gardens watered, at least here in the East. Majorly soggy day here. The artic seems to be under attack with plumes of warm air from several directions. We seem to be on a rinse and repeat cycle of cold northerly incursions and high pressure easterly heat from the continent. The 12th is looking hot here in the east, at least if the GFS is modelling accurately. Bizarre jet too, strong and as convoluted as a Chinese dragon at New Year.

Wair 6 hours...it’s the GFS. 

That aside there are quite a few years where this has been the case re. no sub -10°C hPa in the Arctic Circle by the 12th of June. I can post lots of links although I’m not sure that would add much. (Some recent examples include from, a quick glance: 2011, 2010, 2005 and quite a few before then).

Here is the 06z 10 day (16th June) GFS op run https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH06_240_2.png the 12z will no doubt be different. There are also a few patches on the ECM 00z op run at day 19 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPNH00_240_2.png 

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A big low churning around just to the west of Ireland seems to be a growing theme . With luck could easily get a heatwave if it's too close a washout!

 

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Stay on topic please. As mentioned in the UIA the other day I've not deleted a user account for a while and am getting itchy fingers. Once you're account is deleted it can't be restored. 

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A big low churning around just to the west of Ireland seems to be a growing theme . With luck could easily get a heatwave if it's too close a washout!

 

Indeed. It's a knife edge situation...if the building blocks can be in the right places, we could get a real plume of heat. Looks really volatile though, so could we be looking at a really thundery spell? We haven't had that for many years.

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Indeed. It's a knife edge situation...if the building blocks can be in the right places, we could get a real plume of heat. Looks really volatile though, so could we be looking at a really thundery spell? We haven't had that for many years.

 It would be nice to get some proper thunderstorms going in the weeks to come. These popcorn showers we have at the moment make nice cloudscapes but little else.

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So, 12z time. Last chance for the final holdout of ICON to keep that sinking North Sea trough away. Let’s see...

No, ICON caves and joins the rest.

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So, 12z time. Last chance for the final holdout of ICON to keep that sinking North Sea trough away. Let’s see...

No, ICON caves and joins the rest.

 

I think we can count ourselves very unlucky with that [censored]y little low it seems to mess everything up afterwards. Now looking very unsettled.

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Nightmare output this afternoon copious amounts of rain by the looks of it. At least it will be warmer though. 

All hail Moomin!

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