If any PPN fell as snow, I slept through it. Just relentless rain since I woke up.

 

 

 

Yeh, always when theres the potential for a snow event, I wake up and try and hear rain drops on the window.  Silence as they say - is golden.

 

Alas the rain was bouncing off the windowsil this morning, meaning it was not far off torrential here.  I knew I could sleep soundly for another hour or so with that noise.

 

 

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It was nice to see snow falling. That is two settles of snow small to say the least. Nice to see/ hear Matty back on board. Matty and Bren covered my mispost did not use emiticons 2005. Ha! still got 2005 TWO Calander. love you all

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Thursday looks interesting for some with a deepening low pressure crossing the south and pulling in some fairly cold air on the northern flank. The track is not certain yet but areas just to the north could see a decent spell of snow for a time.

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Yeh Thursday's event looks very good. The exact track and intensity of the low will be important. You need that closed isobar. My experience is things usually trend south over time, not north, so there is a worry this could end up in the English channel.

 

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And now I'm hoping it doesn't snow at this end until when the meteorological Spring does start so that I can get to say that I have witnessed a completely totally snow-free Winter for Kent. 

No danger of that being threatened, certainly not lying snow anyway,

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Yeh Thursday's event looks very good. The exact track and intensity of the low will be important. You need that closed isobar. My experience is things usually trend south over time, not north, so there is a worry this could end up in the English channel.

 

Well so far the Met Office thinks there's only a 50% chance of some light rain here in the south Midlands, so I'm not exactly holding my breath!

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Automated output only has sleet (Met Office) and rain (BBC) for me. Although the Beeb does show light snow showers for me tonight, while the Met has it dry. My flake-free winter could be in danger, from a bit of dandruff in the breeze at the tail end of Feb!

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Wet snow now falling over Dartmoor - Princetown:

 

My parents say there's sleet in north Devon, right by the coast at only 90m asl.

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Less confident for my locality after the 6z updates. This could turn into a bit of a bake but we shall see. 

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My parents say there's sleet in north Devon, right by the coast at only 90m asl.

 

yes temp now 5c here in Exeter with odd flake in heavier burst - has fallen 4c in this heavy shower.,

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Less confident for my locality after the 6z updates. This could turn into a bit of a bake but we shall see. 

WRF has the precipitation as rain when the initial light stuff arrives but turning to snow as the heavier band moves in; some evaporative cooling in there, I imagine.

9am snapshot:

Obviously the picture will change as the models get a better grip of the track and intensity of the low pressure system and the associated precipitation band. As often the case, it looks finely balanced at this stage.

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WRF has the precipitation as rain when the initial light stuff arrives but turning to snow as the heavier band moves in; some evaporative cooling in there, I imagine.

9am snapshot:

Obviously the picture will change as the models get a better grip of the track and intensity of the low pressure system and the associated precipitation band. As often the case, it looks finely balanced at this stage.

FWIW the WRF isn't showing any wintriness for the west country at this stage and yet sleet and even wet snow seems to be fairly widespread.

 

Also it is picking up a heavy blob heading over towards the Chilterns later today:

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Hail Sleet AND SNOW has been seen in Peasedown St John North East Somerset. But not for long.

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Don't forget, for actual snow reports there is a separate thread 👍

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My gut instinct is the north midlands will do quite well out of this.

Although there is some element of bet hedging in that point. If the low moves further north it will probably be stronger and more developed which means a larger warm sector and less scope for Snow.

If the low is weaker it will move further south which means it may open out into a wave which is not conductive to snow at all.

I think the later is more likely than the former though. So London probably better positioned than say Newcastle.

 

But a LP somewhere between those two extremes will likely track across the southern midlands with the northern midlands in the snow zone. To the north of that the occluded front may extend but I doubt there will be anything more than light rain/sleet. And to the south probably rain although a period of snow possible as it clears.

So places like Sheffield, Birmingham, Nottingham should be fairly optimistic imho.

Don't hold out hopes though if you live significantly further north or south.

 

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My gut instinct is the north midlands will do quite well out of this.

Although there is some element of bet hedging in that point. If the low moves further north it will probably be stronger and more developed which means a larger warm sector and less scope for Snow.

If the low is weaker it will move further south which means it may open out into a wave which is not conductive to snow at all.

I think the later is more likely than the former though. So London probably better positioned than say Newcastle.

 

But a LP somewhere between those two extremes will likely track across the southern midlands with the northern midlands in the snow zone. To the north of that the occluded front may extend but I doubt there will be anything more than light rain/sleet. And to the south probably rain although a period of snow possible as it clears.

So places like Sheffield, Birmingham, Nottingham should be fairly optimistic imho.

Don't hold out hopes though if you live significantly further north or south.

 

  I’ll be fairly optimistic then!  

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I think we're too far north here in Sheffield, personally. Will happily be proved wrong though!

As the saaf is involved this time it's getting wildly over-ramped on Twitter already.

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A band of heavy showers crossing Kent now about 30 minutes away will determine if I get to see my first flakes of the season. Having gone this far I'm hopeful it now stays as rain. 

The first band of rain moved through a few minutes ago and dropped the temperature from 7.4c to 4.4c.

The jury is out.

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I think Manchester could see its first flakes of snow overnight/early tomorrow morning.

No accumulations though.

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Snowing here in Banbury , decent sized flakes

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