The NMM above looks fairly realistic to me.

Euro 4 suggests snow building here to quite significant depths till 10am, but I think that is optimistic and probably be very cold rain at 1c by then.

 

Blimey, possibilities for here (although I've cottoned onto a law for the Merseyside/Gtr Manchester/Lancashire region away from higher ground, that if it's in any way marginal, it won't be snow)

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By popular demand, since people seem to like these:

This is the risk of these places seeing snow tommorow. Note that for many in the southern part of the risk area it will occur at 6am ish so don't necessarily expect to see snow unless you are up early. This should be considered the risk of 'definite snow', essentially flakes you can see without squinting, but it doesn't necessarily mean alot.

 

ADENDUM: Northern extent of snow not generous enough. Entire north coast of Scotland should be in the 20%. Move the 50% a bit further north too.

 

https://i.ibb.co/2Z182Dc/snowrisk2020.png 

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Think you may need to amend your map as according to the Yorkshire Post...

The only part of Yorkshire set to miss out on snow showers is Hull, according to the forecaster, which will only see rain.

...and guess where i live close to...!

Not a chance of getting snow from an occluded front with southerly winds as my part of the country is on a flat plain bordered by a warm North Sea, River Humber and the Yorkshire Wolds...even The Beast only produced a couple of days of snow showers which didn't settle, yet 20miles to the south, west and north they had plenty...!

Interesting to see that the vast majority of Scotland is currently under an official yellow warning for snow, especially as we haven't even had much of a "winter" up until now. After all, it's not very often that you get such a large area which is under such a warning. The warning for here starts at 3am this morning and continues until 10pm tonight.

Funnily enough, this was the same weather system which I had expected to be officially named as Storm Ellen, based on the model runs which had been consistent with that for quite a while although this now looks unlikely to be the case. As it turns out though, the Met Office have no plans to name this particular system in this manner, and not even Met Eireann have such plans either.

Looking at the more up to date model output, the intensity of this particular system seems to have been downgraded somewhat at the last minute and because of that, I can now see why this system is unlikely to be named. In fact, there isn't even a single warning for wind with that system here in the UK where there are also currently no warnings at all for any time beyond today.

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Hi all, I have stopped up to see snow potential. Snow/sleet showers happening, thou not for long?. Doing a patio watch with not a lot of results. Snow watch on!

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At this time not looking good for snow in this area, snow/sleet showers turning to rain.

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Well how daft is that, I go down stairs on patio watch heypresto SNOW falling. Time for bed.

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Rain has recently turned to heavy snow and starting to settle. 1.3c

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Some snow earlier giving a rather slushy covering but moderate rain now so that's disappearing.
Still the first (albeit brief) lying snow of the year.

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Moderate snow 0.5c
A winter wonderland outside. Would estimate a couple of inches, everything nicely covered.

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Moderate snow. Everything covered by a decent layer.

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Yet another real disappointment here as it is just rain which we have here in the north of Edinburgh yet again.

The latest snow rain maps show that you don't have to go very far from here to run into some sleet with that occurring from the south of Edinburgh southwards, but any actual snow according to those maps appear to be confined to the hills.

I'm disappointed by this on two fronts because in one sense, I had hoped that we might have been seeing Storm Ellen at this point in time but as I mentioned above, that was never going to happen in the end.

What we are therefore left with is just yet another run of the mill Atlantic weather system bringing in yet more rain which we don't actually need since that has been such an exceptionally wet month here already with the ground already really saturated as a result.

EDIT:

Oh, and before I go on, I must point out that a lot of people are posting actual snow reports for their neck of the woods here (and yes, even the mods who should know better appear to be guilty of that here) whereas there is a separate February snow reports thread which Jerry had started for that very purpose which means that this thread should really only be used for the latest model output in relation to upcoming snow events in order to prevent the main MO thread from becoming too cluttered.

 

 

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Seems like a few of the models and the beeb have got this spot on.

Very heavy rain here on wirral. No sign of anything more wintry than that

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Hi John
It will always be borderline in north Edinburgh with an easterly of the North Sea and low altitude. It's +3 C at Edinburgh airport. However, head south to the Pentlands, Borders and Northern England and snow is falling and settling well in places like Huddersfield, Leeds, Durham, the Lakes and Yorkshire Dales with a temperature of 0 C

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Hi John
It will always be borderline in north Edinburgh with an easterly of the North Sea and low altitude. It's +3 C at Edinburgh airport. However, head south to the Pentlands, Borders and Northern England and snow is falling and settling well in places like Huddersfield, Leeds, Durham, the Lakes and Yorkshire Dales with a temperature of 0 C

Yes, eastern coastal areas with the easterly flow are not going to see snow from this and that has been well modelled. Edinburgh to be fair has a higher chance than Aberdeen. Some inland parts up here however could see quite a large amount later. 

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Yes, eastern coastal areas with the easterly flow are not going to see snow from this and that has been well modelled. Edinburgh to be fair has a higher chance than Aberdeen. Some inland parts up here however could see quite a large amount later. 

Am I right in thinking this could be Aberdeenshire’s first big snow event of the winter? A sorry state of affairs if that’s the case. 

Down here in lowland Manc - just rain, as expected and forecast. Nice to see places north and east of here doing better, again, as expected! 

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Am I right in thinking this could be Aberdeenshire’s first big snow event of the winter? A sorry state of affairs if that’s the case. 

Down here in lowland Manc - just rain, as expected and forecast. Nice to see places north and east of here doing better, again, as expected! 

I think that is probably correct Joe and as you say, a sorry state of affairs.

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Hi John
It will always be borderline in north Edinburgh with an easterly of the North Sea and low altitude. It's +3 C at Edinburgh airport. However, head south to the Pentlands, Borders and Northern England and snow is falling and settling well in places like Huddersfield, Leeds, Durham, the Lakes and Yorkshire Dales with a temperature of 0 C

This kind of reminds me of what happened quite a lot here during the winter of 2012/13. Back then, cold easterly winds brought a lot of snow at times which would be lying quite deep further inland from the south of Edinburgh onwards. Even in the north of Edinburgh, sleet and wet snow would still fall then (just now, we're not even getting that), but with virtually none of that ever actually lying.

Yet, you can get other occasions such as in March 2013 and February/March 2018 where this same sort of setup can deliver some deep lying snow even here in the north of Edinburgh. I'm guessing that whichever of those two outcomes we then get will depend very much on how cold that air mass is at source and to a certain extent, on the SSTs over the North Sea but since it is still only just raining here (no surprise as our temperatures during last night ahead of this system had already refused to drop yet again during last night), that tells me that it is probably the temperature of this air mass at its source which isn't favourable for us getting snow from that here since we are now going into the time of the year when we would expect the SSTs over the North Sea to be at their lowest values.

EDIT:

As I have just looked out, I have noticed that the rain has now turned to sleet and wet snow here in the north of Edinburgh and so, this scenario is very much similar to what we saw during the winter of 2012/13 on quite a number of occasions, but without such a strong wind coming in from off the North Sea as what we had back then.

 

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If any PPN fell as snow, I slept through it. Just relentless rain since I woke up.

 

 

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Well how daft is that, I go down stairs on patio watch heypresto SNOW falling. Time for bed.

I admire the commitment. 🙂

I remember many times pulling back the curtain and pointing a torch out into the night to see what was falling. Sometimes worth the effort; sometimes an inevitable disappointment.

Still, it's good to read the reports of wintry weather coming in whilst I sit here with the outside thermometer reading 10c.  ☹️ 😂

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