Looks like the squall line pretty much died a death in the 10 miles from Grain to Sheppey, not that I'm complaining! The wind speeds have decrased noticably from earlier and the temperature and dewpoint are falling slowly. I guess that's it for the first cold front!

The second cold front is more interesting, in that it should be across Wales and the Midlands... right where all that heavy rain is. I know some of the models were showing a "wave" developing, i.e. it effectively becomes a warm front for a time, leading to a much greater rainfall amount (as it's moving along that much more slowly).

This is what's pepping up the rain over southern Wales, I'd wager, along with orographic enhancement; it's like squeezing water out of a sponge.

Hopefully those in Wales will have taken heed of the warnings and will be in a safe place... unlike the naked bloke in a tent on a boat who had to be rescued by the coastguard last night here!

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Yes, but I also want to hear from others about whether that is true or not. There are after all, members of this forum who have far more knowledge on the subject than what I have and if from the evidence that they feed back to me from the resulting data, they tell me that my claim isn't actually correct, I will then be more than happy to admit that I am wrong in this case.

 

I think what we need to determine is exactly what you are claiming. Those statistics for Edinburgh are averages and of course there are warmer/colder/wetter places than Edinburgh. But what do we mean by 'extreme'? Edinburgh may have an average of 700mm rainfall per year but how much does this vary year by year compared to somewhere else that has the same yearly average, Is another location that also averages 700mm per year likely to record higher individual daily totals than Edinburgh? What I am getting at is whether within the averages that Edinburgh has, it is less 'variable' than other places.

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indeed Jim I was suspicious of grade used normal folk put to much trust in these people but to be fair most people don’t know without a lot of research but then they should not do it my thoughts when I Zoomed in on Brian first photo much clearer here

 

 

Looks like they've dressed a grade4 lead onto the tiles, probably because it's easy to dress over the tiles, which hasn't been done too tidily, being above the tiles a grade 7 or 8 would have been much better although harder to dress, a good leadsman would have seen that ok. With that grade of lead the wind wouldn't have lifted it. Much more expensive but probably worth the extra.

Reviewing a lot of the charts. Has a wave developed along the front hench the red warning for Wales. There does seem to be a lot of rain pushing in down in the SW. I was expecting more of a clearance late
Morning/afternoon

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Squall of moderate intensity around 0700 (I've seen worse) but now much quieter; maybe a second batch to come as heavy rain forecast until 1600 with winds pepping up as it clears.

The main action south of London seems to be on the Wey at Guildford and the Mole at Leatherhead, about 30 miles north of here, where emergency flood barriers were being put up in a hurry last night and this morning.

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if you look at 0700 date stamp fax then most likely

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

 

Reviewing a lot of the charts. Has a wave developed along the front hench the red warning for Wales. There does seem to be a lot of rain pushing in down in the SW. I was expecting more of a clearance late
Morning/afternoon

Reviewing a lot of the charts. Has a wave developed along the front hench the red warning for Wales. There does seem to be a lot of rain pushing in down in the SW. I was expecting more of a clearance late
Morning/afternoon

I’d say most definitely - and it’s on the current 06Z fax chart. E4 has at least five more hours of rain across S Wales to Suffolk and areas south.

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I think what we need to determine is exactly what you are claiming. Those statistics for Edinburgh are averages and of course there are warmer/colder/wetter places than Edinburgh. But what do we mean by 'extreme'? Edinburgh may have an average of 700mm rainfall per year but how much does this vary year by year compared to somewhere else that has the same yearly average, Is another location that also averages 700mm per year likely to record higher individual daily totals than Edinburgh? What I am getting at is whether within the averages that Edinburgh has, it is less 'variable' than other places.

 

As had been said it is all subjective. 

However from the wiki page what is striking (if corrrect) is that the wettest year ever only recorded 992mm which isnt that extreme and not that much more than the mean . 

However on the other hand Edinburgh has recorded -6c this winter and some snow away fron the coast, more interesting from my point of view than many other UK cities. 

Overall i cant see how the weather is less interesting as many other lowland places especially given its coastal location.

 

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I think what we need to determine is exactly what you are claiming. Those statistics for Edinburgh are averages and of course there are warmer/colder/wetter places than Edinburgh. But what do we mean by 'extreme'? Edinburgh may have an average of 700mm rainfall per year but how much does this vary year by year compared to somewhere else that has the same yearly average, Is another location that also averages 700mm per year likely to record higher individual daily totals than Edinburgh? What I am getting at is whether within the averages that Edinburgh has, it is less 'variable' than other places.

I go by my own personal experiences and the experiences from others as that is the best guide to me, as regards to what is actually happening. Since that is something can't be proved or disproved in any way by actual data, I believe that it is always better to just take the word of whoever is making the claim.

I will add though that averages do balance themselves out over time which means that if two different locations have the same average rainfall but with one place having more wetter extremes than the other, that place which has the greater number of wetter extremes would need to also have the same number of drier extremes in order for those same overall averages to be maintained in the longer term.

From this reading the various posts on this forum over the years, it would appear that just about everywhere else has more drier extremes and more wetter extremes than here and that in turn, is what leads to my claim what Edinburgh is therefore, probably the most boring part of the UK as a result when it comes to our weather. That is where my claim lies, but I do recognise that I could also be wrong because the evidence which I have seen so far, only covers those locations where TWO members are actually located.

There are of course, a vast number of locations throughout the UK but there are are only a certain limited number of those locations where TWO members are located and so, who is to say that the story won't be different in locations which haven't been covered by any TWO member? I therefore take that point in that way but I still think that a large enough proportion of the country is covered here on TWO for my claim (of Edinburgh being the most boring place on average when it comes to our weather) to be a valid one.

 

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The squall line has arrived here . . . and it was rather weedy with just a spell of moderate rain, even the wind has died down now . . . seemingly earlier than forecast.

4.2 mm so far today, however, a properly wet day now faces me. A good excuse to just stay in my nightgown watching Star Trek DVDs and not feel guilty for it.

 

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Most ens going for around 25mm for London over the next few hours clearance around 21.00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

 

 

 

Rainfall yesterday came to 12.7mm plus 16.5mm so far today gives a total of 29.2mm from storm Dennis at the moment.  The worst wind seems to have been overnight, with gusts around 55mph, though I did go out yesterday evening and got caught in one at the time when 45mph gusts were being recorded. 

There was a gap in the squall line crossing Kent earlier, which passed over here so we were not affected, but there was a noticeable temperature drop when the cold front came through.

As this is also the fencing and roofing thread () I will also mention that two fence posts in my neighbours fence have broken or come loose in the ground so the fence is blowing around in the breeze.

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I go by my own personal experiences and the experiences from others as that is the best guide to me, as regards to what is actually happening. Since that is something can't be proved or disproved in any way by actual data, I believe that it is always better to just take the word of whoever is making the claim.

I will add though that averages do balance themselves out over time which means that if two different locations have the same average rainfall but with one place having more wetter extremes than the other, that place which has the greater number of wetter extremes would need to also have the same number of drier extremes in order for those same overall averages to be maintained in the longer term.

From this reading the various posts on this forum over the years, it would appear that just about everywhere else has more drier extremes and more wetter extremes than here and that in turn, is what leads to my claim what Edinburgh is therefore, probably the most boring part of the UK as a result when it comes to our weather. That is where my claim lies, but I do recognise that I could also be wrong because the evidence which I have seen so far, only covers those locations where TWO members are actually located.

Varialbilty around mean average yearly rainfall is most certainly something that could be demonstated by data.

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The emergency post buddy is very good will save other post and fence panels until a clear decision can be made.

https://postbuddysystem.co.uk/product/post-buddy-system/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx6eu4_DV5wIVh7PtCh3MywoZEAQYAyABEgKTyfD_BwE

other idea is concrete spur or oak spur against prevailing wind very strong and many keep in

https://www.diy.com/departments/forest-garden-concrete-repair-spur-h-1m-w-75mm/5013053172780_BQ.prd?ds_rl=1272379&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx6eu4_DV5wIVh7PtCh3MywoZEAQYBSABEgLoZPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

 

 

Rainfall yesterday came to 12.7mm plus 16.5mm so far today gives a total of 29.2mm from storm Dennis at the moment.  The worst wind seems to have been overnight, with gusts around 55mph, though I did go out yesterday evening and got caught in one at the time when 45mph gusts were being recorded. 

There was a gap in the squall line crossing Kent earlier, which passed over here so we were not affected, but there was a noticeable temperature drop when the cold front came through.

As this is also the fencing and roofing thread () I will also mention that two fence posts in my neighbours fence have broken or come loose in the ground so the fence is blowing around in the breeze.

 

I go by my own personal experiences and the experiences from others as that is the best guide to me, as regards to what is actually happening. Since that is something can't be proved or disproved in any way by actual data, I believe that it is always better to just take the word of whoever is making the claim.

I will add though that averages do balance themselves out over time which means that if two different locations have the same average rainfall but with one place having more wetter extremes than the other, that place which has the greater number of wetter extremes would need to also have the same number of drier extremes in order for those same overall averages to be maintained in the longer term.

From this reading the various posts on this forum over the years, it would appear that just about everywhere else has more drier extremes and more wetter extremes than here and that in turn, is what leads to my claim what Edinburgh is therefore, probably the most boring part of the UK as a result when it comes to our weather. That is where my claim lies, but I do recognise that I could also be wrong because the evidence which I have seen so far, only covers those locations where TWO members are actually located.

Varialbilty around mean average yearly rainfall is most certainly something that could be demonstated by data.

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My entire fence has succumbed to the wind overnight...5 panels and 3 posts cleanly taken out...Happens to be the side I'm responsible for too !!...Must have been weakened last weekend and clearly couldn't handle two storms within 7 days..

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The red warning has now expired. But lots more rain coming into the SW.

This waving front seems to have developed far more ommph. I wonder if they will issue another red warning.

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Most ens going for around 25mm for London over the next few hours clearance around 21.00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

 

 

 

Yes, today looks wetter here in the South of Essex. Whether it was the London heat sink effect i don't know but there was a big gap in the rainfall radar through London, South Essex and North Kent. Just 2.2mm. Already up to 8mm today.

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At 11.15 am, while poor Wales (and other parts of Southern England) are now literally underwater, the Kent Rain Deflector appears to be accidentally re-activated . . .

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My entire fence has succumbed to the wind overnight...5 panels and 3 posts cleanly taken out...Happens to be the side I'm responsible for too !!...Must have been weakened last weekend and clearly couldn't handle two storms within 7 days..

Mine too, but its being held up by ivy and the hedge next door. Not sure if its worth getting done as I am thinking of selling up anyway

Spent the morning mopping up the garage as usual. I hate overnight heavy rain, as I am always presented with a horror show when I come downstairs at 7am

 

 

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